• JD2021-08-19

    JD / 9618.HK: Strong “6.18” Is Likely To Lift 2Q21 Performance While JD Is Investing For More Sources Of Future Growth

    JD will report 2Q21 results on August 23rd before the US market opens with an 8am ET conference call. With e-commerce reaching almost full penetration in China, all e-commerce vendors are looking into new investments while enforcing its core business. For JD’s existing business, the 6.18 sales accomplished exceptionally good results with 27.7% Y/Y growth. For new investments, JD is focusing on omni-channel retails, logistics, lower tier city expansion as well as getting into community group-buy.……

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  • 2021-08-12

    BZUN / 9991.HK: New Investment And Acquisition To Enforce BZUN’s Leading Position In Ecommerce Operations For Brands

    BZUN will report 4Q20 results on March 4th before the market opens with a 7am EST conference call. We believe BZUN is likely to deliver solid 4Q20 results and provide good 1Q21 guidance. In addition to its short-term performance, we are positive about BZUN’s longer term outlook due to the underlying high demand for upscale international brands as well as improvement of its operational capability via its recent investments in iClick Interactive (ICLK) and acquisition of Full Jet. Our data shows t……

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  • 2021-08-12

    PDD: Focus On User Acquisition And Retention Leading To Higher Volume Growth, Positive 4Q20 and January 2021 Performance

    PDD will report 4Q20 results on March 17th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on PDD’s performance in 4Q20 and January 2021. PDD has been placing significant efforts on customer acquisition and retention by using innovative methods. In 4Q20, the company was trying to increase user stickiness by bringing more unique brands to its platform via its C2M program. In January, PDD had 4 major programs in place for such purpose, including “10 Billion Subsidies” (百……

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  • BABA2021-08-12

    BABA/9988.HK: Post Chinese Government Anti-Monopoly Fines, BABA Started New Round Of Investment For Future Growth

    BABA will report F4Q21 earnings on May 13th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We have turned positive on BABA. We believe that as the policy and regulation issues are getting behind BABA, the company is starting a new round of investments, which can be positive for its future growth. For FY4Q21 earnings, based on our data and model, we believe FY4Q21E revenue (Figure 1) is likely to be better than consensus on both the topline and bottom line. ……

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  • 2021-08-12

    SE: Strong Business Momentum In Both E-Commerce And Games Driving 1Q21 Results

    SE will report 1Q21 results on May 18th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on SE’s 1Q21E performance on both games and e-commerce. These two parts of the business are rapidly growing. For e-commerce, the company is adopting and promoting MCN/influencer live streaming to maximize its traffic reach and conversions. SE is taking more market share in the South East Asia e-commerce market. For its finance arm, ShopeePay can now be used in approximately 400 petr……

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  • VIPS2021-08-12

    VIPS: Ongoing Customer Acquisition And Retention Efforts Driving Better Operating Metrics In 1Q21

    VIPS will report 1Q21 results on May 19th before the markets open with a 7:30am conference call. We are positive into its 1Q21 performance due to the growth of active users and average ticket size. VIPS continues its efforts on customer acquisition by sponsoring popular dramas or variety shows. These shows are carefully selected, and the audience fit into the same profiles as VIPS’s consumers. Once VIPS recruits new customers, its brands, discounts and other business operational practices serve ……

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  • JD2021-08-12

    JD / 9618.HK: Strong E-Commerce Consumption Due To Abnormal Seasonality In 1Q21 Leading To Positive Topline Performance In 1Q21

    JD will report 1Q21 results on May 19th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive into JD’s 1Q21 topline performance. In 1Q21, there is abnormal seasonality, which is completely different from 1Q20 since most people did not travel back home to spend their Chinese New Year holiday instead of staying in the cities. As a result, business and consumer activities were much stronger than normal in 1Q21. Due to the low base in 1Q20 as well as abnormal strong seasonality……

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  • 2021-08-12

    BABA / 9988.HK: Regulatory Uncertainties Still A Concern But It Has Lessened; BABA Paving Ways For Better Growth In 2022

    BABA will report FY1Q22 results on August 3rd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are neutral on Alibaba due to uncertainties on the regulatory front. However, while dealing with the uncertainties in CY2Q21, BABA was putting in place new measures on both Tmall and Taobao aiming to acquire and retain merchants. We believe these measures are positive for BABA’s growth next year. In the near-term, these measures and BABA’s investments are likely to put pressure on its marg……

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  • 2021-08-12

    BZUN/9991.HK: BZUN Benefiting From Luxury Sales Boost In China Due To International Travel Restrictions

    BZUN will report 2Q21 results on August 19th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN’s total GMV is likely to grow 31.7% Y/Y to reach RMB16.8B in 2Q21, which was partially impacted by the BCI incident. We believe BZUN’s net revenue in 2Q21 is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB2,492M (15.6% Y/Y growth) and better than our model. BZUN has been increasing its brand capabilities by making several acquisitions. Along with a strong……

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  • 2021-08-12

    SE: Expansion Into Other Regions Beyond SE Asia; Solid Operating Metrics In 2Q21

    SE will report 2Q21 results in mid-to-late August. We are positive on SE’s 2Q21E performance. As a main player in Southeast Asian countries, Sea is expanding beyond the region to Latin American nations including Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. With its successful experience in SE Asia, we believe there is a high chance for SE to replicate its success in Latin America. Within the SE region, the company continues to come out with new initiatives to increase customer loyalty and retain/acquire……

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  • 2021-08-12

    FTCH: Multiple Positives In Brands, Stores, SKUs and Performance In China Are Likely To Lead To Better 2Q21

    FTCH will report 2Q21 results on August 19th after the market close followed by a 4:30pm ET conference call. We are positive on FTCH for 2Q21. As the world is opening back up, FTCH has experienced multiple positives. The first is that activities on FTCH’s platform from the US, UK as well as some other EU countries increased. The average listing prices were up and the portion of discounted SKUs (but with less discounts) on FTCH increased. In addition, more stores opened on its platform. FTCH is l……

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  • 2020-12-17

    3690.HK: Rapidly Rolling Out Meituan Selected In More Places; Food Delivery GTV Likely To Grow Y/Y In October And November

    Meituan announced in early September that it will expand its community group purchase service, Meituan Selected (美团优选), to 1,000 Chinese cities and counties by the end of 2020. Based on our data, in early December, Meituan Selected is available in 277 cities vs. 186 on November 16th. For food delivery, Meituan market share decreased slightly in October and November 2020 compared with 3Q20, as Ele.me organized successful “11.11” promotional events; however, Meituan’s market share is still close t……

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  • 2020-11-25

    3690.HK: Accelerating Growth In Supply And Demand for Online Deliveries Leads To Better 3Q20 Results

    Meituan will report 3Q20 results on November 30th before the markets open with a 6am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance in 3Q20. The demand for food delivery services accelerated in 3Q20 as business activities and life returned to normal. The supply side of food delivery has been growing significantly as restaurant re-openings and their online migration continues their upward trend nationwide. The number of food delivery orders and restaurants joining online services w……

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  • 2020-11-19

    BZUN / 9991.HK: Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue Due To Product Mix Optimization; 4Q20 Outlook Is Strong On Robust Sales

    BZUN will report 3Q20 results on November 23rd before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on BZUN’s 3Q20 and expect stronger 4Q20 performance. BZUN provided weaker than expected 3Q20 guidance at 16% - 20% Y/Y growth, as the third quarter experienced weaker than normal seasonality. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN performed better in 3Q20 than its guidance, and net revenue is likely to be above the high end of the company’s guidance at RMB1,800M and the St……

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  • NTES2020-11-18

    NTES / 9999.HK: Aggressive Promotion of New Games And Online Education Driving Topline Growth In 3Q20

    NTES will report 3Q20 results on November 19th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Normally, 3Q is a strong quarter for PC games, however, 3Q20 is a shorter quarter as the college entrance exam was pushed to July from June. Additionally, after being quarantined at home in 1Q20 and making up schoolwork in 2Q20, families and students finally have a chance to do outdoor activities. However, NTES launched a few new games in 3Q20, which included Fantasy Westward Journey 3D, Dawn o……

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  • 2020-11-10

    PDD: Strong User Growth Momentum And High Transaction Volume In 3Q20

    PDD will report 3Q20 results on November 12th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Even though the third quarter of 2020 is a weaker quarter for e-commerce after the hike in 2Q20, with its ongoing efforts, PDD traffic as well as its user engagements recovered. Based on our data and our model, we believe PDD’s total revenue in 3Q20E is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB12,338M (64.2% Y/Y growth). However, based on our data, we believe PDD’s sales & marketing expe……

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  • VIPS2020-11-09

    VIPS: Improving Demand for Apparel Drive Better 3Q20 Performance

    VIPS will report 3Q20 results on November 13th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive into Vipshop’s 3Q20 earnings. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, it significantly improved in 3Q20. VIPS has been increasing its efforts to promote KuaiQiang (快抢) as one of its growing channels. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be at least in line but highly likely to be bette……

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  • 2020-11-02

    BABA: New Initiatives To Enable A Strong FY3Q21; FY2Q21 Continued Its Momentum From FY1Q21

    BABA will report FY2Q21 results on November 5th before the market opens with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Based on our data and model, FY2Q21E revenue is likely to be at least in line with consensus at RMB155.9B (31.0% Y/Y growth). China’s e-commerce industry in 3Q20 is experiencing weaker seasonality than before; however, we are expecting a strong 4Q20. ……

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  • VIPS2020-10-09

    T.H. Data Flash – Vipshop – August & 3Q20E: Growth In Apparel And Fashion Picking Up In July And August; Positive For 3Q20 Performance

    We are positive into Vipshop’s potential performance in 3Q20E. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, the growth picked up in both July and August 2020 with 18.5% Y/Y and 15.2% Y/Y growth, respectively, which significantly improved from 2.3% Y/Y decline in 2Q20. The newer channels, Fengqiang (疯抢) and KuaiQiang (快抢), are growing channels, and VIPS has been increasing its efforts in these channels. ……

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  • JD2020-10-08

    T.H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – August & 3Q20E: New Initiatives and Better Performance In 3Q20; Expect A Strong 4Q20 On Blockbuster Sales

    We are positive on JD’s 3Q20 performance. Post the hike in 2Q20, China e-commerce vendors including JD in 3Q20 experienced a lower growth season than its normal seasonality with most categories showing slower growth, except categories like apparel, shoes & bags and accessories. JD did a big promotional event in September together with Kuaishuo (a short video vendor like TikTok) with huge subsidizations, which was an additional positive compared with last year. ……

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T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offer real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects, from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to the China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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