Research Reports

  • JD: Profitability is Foreseeable and Strong Growth in 2Q15 is Driven by “6.18” Sale; Initiate with a Buy and PT of $39
    JD2015-08-04

    JD: Profitability is Foreseeable and Strong Growth in 2Q15 is Driven by “6.18” Sale; Initiate with a Buy and PT of $39

    We are initiating on JD with a BUY rating due to its foreseeable growth and profitability outlook as well as its upcoming 2Q15 results. The company will report 2Q15 results on Friday, August 7th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. JD’s 2Q results are highly likely to be better than consensus driven mainly by its June 18th Anniversary Sale promotion as well as ongoing expansion in general merchandise. Longer term-wise, new category expansion in general merchandise can serve as another growth driver for years to come. Also, as JD is developing faster in its general merchandise and marketplace businesses, which have higher margin profiles, we believe the profitability is foreseeable and is only a matter of time. We are initiating our coverage on JD with a Buy and a pric……

    Read Room>>

  • SFUN: Investment is Peaking as the Company is Expanding into Most Tier 1 & Tier 2 Cities; Leading in Secondary Housing Sales; Upgrade to BUY with PT of $8.00
    SFUN2015-08-04

    SFUN: Investment is Peaking as the Company is Expanding into Most Tier 1 & Tier 2 Cities; Leading in Secondary Housing Sales; Upgrade to BUY with PT of $8.00

    SFUN will report 2Q15 results before the U.S. markets open on August 7, 2015 with an 8:00AM ET conference call. Benefiting from the market recovery in 2Q15, we believe the company may deliver 2Q15 revenue better than consensus primarily driven by its e-commerce business in the primary housing area. And we believe its investment in the secondary housing business is paying off. SFUN has expanded into 13 cities and gained more market share from traditional offline agencies with lower commission rate and the company is on its way into more cities. As we believe that SFUN is going to cover most of the tier 1 and tier 2 cities by 3Q15, the investment may reach its peak level. Therefore, we upgrade the stock from Hold to BUY with a price target of $8.00. ……

    Read Room>>

  • CTRP: Hotel Coverage Expansion and Better Margins May Drive 2Q15 Results; Maintain Buy
    CTRP2015-08-03

    CTRP: Hotel Coverage Expansion and Better Margins May Drive 2Q15 Results; Maintain Buy

    Ctrip will report 2Q15 results on Monday, August 3, 2015 after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting better 2Q15 top line driven by strong travel momentum as well as CTRP’s ability to execute. We believe the volumes of both hotel room nights and air are likely to be better than the company’s guidance driven by its aggressive expansion in the hotel and air ticketing businesses. In terms of the bottom line, we believe Ctrip may perform better than consensus expectations on less participation in price competition in the quarter. We maintain our Buy rating as we believe Ctrip is well positioned to capture China's travel demands.……

    Read Room>>

  • T. H. Data Flash – Online Auto Marketing – June 2015: Steady Growth in Paying Dealers for ATHM and BITA in 2Q15
    BITAATHM2015-07-29

    T. H. Data Flash – Online Auto Marketing – June 2015: Steady Growth in Paying Dealers for ATHM and BITA in 2Q15

    •Steady growth in paying dealers for both ATHM and BITA - According to our proprietary data, total registered dealers for 2Q15 were stable at around 23K and 25K for ATHM and BITA, respectively. In June, ATHM’s dealer subscriptions reached 18.4K from 17.3K in May, vs. BITA at 18.1K from 18.2K in May (Figure 1). In 2Q15, the total number of paying dealers for ATHM reached 53.3K from 51.9K in 1Q15 and BITA reached 54.5K from 53K last quarter.……

    Read Room>>

  • SOHU: Expect Inline 2Q15 Driven By Mobile Games and Video Views; Maintain Hold Rating
    SOHU2015-07-25

    SOHU: Expect Inline 2Q15 Driven By Mobile Games and Video Views; Maintain Hold Rating

    SOHU will report 2Q15 results on Monday, July 27th before the markets open with an 8:30am ET conference call. We expect 2Q15 results to come in inline with consensus driven by strong growth of mobile games. While SOHU makes improvements in mobile games, the whole business is still in the phase of searching for a new growth engine. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock. ……

    Read Room>>

  • CYOU: Mobile Games to Drive 2Q15 Results; Maintain Hold
    CYOU2015-07-24

    CYOU: Mobile Games to Drive 2Q15 Results; Maintain Hold

    CYOU will report 2Q15 results on Monday, July 27th before the market open with a 7am EST conference call. We believe the quarter may be in line with consensus driven largely by strong growth of the company’s mobile games, while its MMO segment is stable with flat server growth coupled with slight ACU decline. Over the last few quarters, CYOU has been dedicating a lot of resources and focus on this area. However, to maintain leadership in mobile games, CYOU needs more than one or two hit games; it needs solid R&D capability. As such, we maintain our Hold rating as CYOU still needs to demonstrate such capability for its sustainable long term growth. ……

    Read Room>>

  • T. H. Data Flash - Youku Tudou Inc. (YOKU) - June 2015: Significant Growth in Mobile Downloads; Upside in Views Was Driven By New Content
    YOKU2015-07-23

    T. H. Data Flash - Youku Tudou Inc. (YOKU) - June 2015: Significant Growth in Mobile Downloads; Upside in Views Was Driven By New Content

    April 1 - June 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•Significant increase in mobile downloads – By the end of 06/30/2015, mobile app downloads for Youku Tudou increased to 3,411M from 2,860M at the end of 03/31/2015 with 551M new additions (Figure 1). YOKU’s downloads are catching up with iQiyi/PPS at about 3,582M by the end of 06/30/2015.……

    Read Room>>

  • BIDU: Search Business in Mobile Drives Growth; Investing in Nuomi May Lead to the Change in Financial Reporting; Maintain BUY Rating
    BIDU2015-07-22

    BIDU: Search Business in Mobile Drives Growth; Investing in Nuomi May Lead to the Change in Financial Reporting; Maintain BUY Rating

    BIDU will report 2Q15 results on Monday, July 27th after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting the company to report at least in line 2Q15 results, driven by its core search business, particularly strong mobile search. We believe its strength in mobile search can continue. For other businesses such as Nuomi, we believe its newly committed investment is likely to result in the rapid growth in GMVs as well as registered mobile users. As such, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. In addition, we believe it makes sense for BIDU to provide a separate P&L for its search and other businesses that are in the stage of heavy investing including iQiyi and Nuomi. If the company does so, BIDU can benefit from a potentially new valuation method such as ……

    Read Room>>

  • T. H. Data Flash – Netease, Inc. (NTES) – June 2015: Strong Performance of Mobile Games and Mobile Apps
    NTES2015-07-21

    T. H. Data Flash – Netease, Inc. (NTES) – June 2015: Strong Performance of Mobile Games and Mobile Apps

    April 1 - June 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. •Strong momentum in mobile game downloads - As of 2Q15, the cumulative number of downloads of NTES's major mobile games was 173.2M, up significantly from 97.0M at the end of March 2015 with a net add of 76.2M. The growth continues to be mainly driven by LDXY (乱斗西游)and FWWJ (梦幻西游手游) and to a lesser extent Ninja Must Die 2 (忍者必须死2) and Mini WWJ (迷你西游) (Figure 1). ……

    Read Room>>

  • JMEI: T. H. Data Flash – Jumei International (JMEI) – May 2015: Increase in GMV of Curated Sales Driven by New Categories in Jumei Global
    JMEI2015-07-07

    JMEI: T. H. Data Flash – Jumei International (JMEI) – May 2015: Increase in GMV of Curated Sales Driven by New Categories in Jumei Global

    April 1 - May 31, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•GMV of curated sales jumped in May driven by Jumei Global – According to our proprietary data, the GMV of 1P curated sales grew 28.5% M/M in May from April (Figure 1). The growth was driven by Jumei Global’s newly launched Mom & Baby and light luxury categories. The new categories led to the growth in volume, which increased 26.4% M/M (Figure 2 & 3). In May, we believe GMV from Jumei Global contributed 33% of curated sales GMV, up from 17% in March (Figure 4). ……

    Read Room>>

  • T. H. Data Flash – New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) – May 2015: Restructuring of Course Offerings May Lead to Better Utilization; U-Can Grew Healthily; Maintain Buy
    EDU2015-07-01

    T. H. Data Flash – New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) – May 2015: Restructuring of Course Offerings May Lead to Better Utilization; U-Can Grew Healthily; Maintain Buy

    March 1, 2015 – May 31, 2015 Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from public resources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•Less total course offerings due to course restructuring – In an effort to be more content centric instead of teacher centric, EDU moved its course offerings toward more standardization. As such, in FY4Q15 (03/2015-05/2015), the company consolidated small courses into bigger courses and shorter courses into longer courses. According to our proprietary data, total number of courses offered was 44.1K or 8.9% Y/Y decrease from 48.4K in FY4Q14 (Figure 1). ……

    Read Room>>

  • T. H. Data Flash – CAR Inc. (0699-HK) – May 2015: Number of Stores Continue to Grow Y/Y; Higher Utilization Rate During Holidays
    2015-06-22

    T. H. Data Flash – CAR Inc. (0699-HK) – May 2015: Number of Stores Continue to Grow Y/Y; Higher Utilization Rate During Holidays

    •Utilization rate decreased in May compared with 1Q15 – CAR achieved higher utilization and rental rates during the Labor Day holiday in May 2015 compared with the same period last year (Figure 1). For the month of May, the utilization rate declined to 55% from 60% in April 2015 and 59.6% in 1Q15, which we believe was due to store expansion. The rental rate in May remained stable at RMB286 on a month-to-month basis and increased from RMB278 in 1Q15 (Figure 2). ……

    Read Room>>

  • YY: Strong Performance in Music Show Business; Monetization in Education; Upgrade to BUY from HOLD with PT of $94.00
    YY2015-06-18

    YY: Strong Performance in Music Show Business; Monetization in Education; Upgrade to BUY from HOLD with PT of $94.00

    We upgrade YY stock to BUY from HOLD, mainly due to the strong performance in musical show business. According to our proprietary data, we believe there was strong growth in both active users and the number of hosts. In addition, the company started to monetize its education sector starting in 2Q15. Since we believe most of the negatives are out, we upgrade the stock to BUY from HOLD with a price target of $94.00. ……

    Read Room>>

  • XRS: Strong Growth Driven By Expansion; Upgrade to BUY with PT of $44.00
    XRS2015-06-12

    XRS: Strong Growth Driven By Expansion; Upgrade to BUY with PT of $44.00

    We upgrade XRS to BUY from Hold as we believe there was significant growth in both the number of courses and enrollments in FY1Q16, according to our proprietary data. We believe such growth is mainly driven by its expansion into other cities. As such, we upgrade the stock to BUY from HOLD with a price target of $44.00.   ……

    Read Room>>

  • JMEI: Jumei Global Drives New Growth; Initiate with a Buy
    JMEI2015-05-21

    JMEI: Jumei Global Drives New Growth; Initiate with a Buy

    JMEI will report its 1Q15 results on Thursday, May 21st after the market close with a conference call Friday morning at 8:30am ET. JMEI is likely to report 1Q15 results better than consensus due to higher than expected GMV growth driven by Jumei Global, as it has been taking effect since 1Q15. Going forward, we believe the trend of higher growth can continue as Jumei Global is just at its beginning and the company is starting to branch out from initial cosmetics to other categories such as baby and maternity products. Jumei Global is a new way of product sourcing, which captures a big untapped consumer market in China with demands of branded foreign goods at a better price. As such, we are initiating our coverage of JMEI with a Buy and a price target of $30.00. ……

    Read Room>>

  • EJ: Investments for the Future Come at a Sacrifice to Near-Term Margins; Maintain HOLD
    EJ2015-05-15

    EJ: Investments for the Future Come at a Sacrifice to Near-Term Margins; Maintain HOLD

    EJ will report 1Q15 results before the U.S. markets open on May 19th with an 8:15am ET conference call. We believe the full year guidance is highly likely to be maintained as the underlying market has started to recover from 2Q15 driven by a series of stimulating policies. Under such macro environment, EJ’s growth in 2015 may be primarily driven by e-commerce business from LEJU (a subsidiary of EJ). As for it other new business initiatives such as Fangjingsuo (房金所) and Shihui (实惠) which started from 3Q14, we believe they are still in the phase of investment and ramping up and have yet to make any meaningful contribution to EJ’s top line growth. As such investment is negative to the company’s margins, we maintain our HOLD rating until margin uncertainties subside. ……

    Read Room>>

  • LEJU: Market Starts To Recover After 1Q15 Weakness; E-Commerce Continues To Grow in 2015; Maintain Hold
    LEJU2015-05-15

    LEJU: Market Starts To Recover After 1Q15 Weakness; E-Commerce Continues To Grow in 2015; Maintain Hold

    LEJU will report 1Q15 results before the market opens on May 19, 2015 with a 7:00 AM ET conference call. While we believe the company’s previous guidance on a full year basis can be maintained due to the positive government policies, the allocation of its revenue target can be different than the Street expectation. We believe 1Q15 can be lower as the underlying market was depressed in 1Q15, but 2H15 can be better as the policies start to kick in. We are making proper adjustments to our estimates. We maintain our Hold rating before we see the proper expectation is set. ……

    Read Room>>

  • WB: Better Engagement Levels Point to Solid Quarter; Maintain Buy Rating
    WB2015-05-15

    WB: Better Engagement Levels Point to Solid Quarter; Maintain Buy Rating

    Weibo will report 1Q15 results on Thursday, May 14 after the close of the market followed by a 9pm ET conference call. We are expecting 1Q15 results and 2Q15 guidance to be at least in line with the Street. We believe the company is making significant improvement in its monetization initiatives, which is driving fundamental growth. Mobile continues its strong growth trajectory. Going forward, we think Weibo is well positioned for long term revenue and earnings growth, even though we believe WB still needs to invest for the future. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and price target of $24.00.……

    Read Room>>

  • SFUN: Benefiting from Market Recovery; Business Transition May Cause Short Term Margin Pressure; Maintain Hold
    SFUN2015-05-14

    SFUN: Benefiting from Market Recovery; Business Transition May Cause Short Term Margin Pressure; Maintain Hold

    SFUN will report 1Q15 results before the U.S. markets open on May 20, 2015 with an 8:00AM ET conference call. While we don’t expect any surprises from its 1Q15 results and the 2015 full year guidance, we are positive about SFUN’s growth outlook as it is benefiting from the recovery of the underlying market driven by stimulus policies. In particular, we believe both of its membership and direct sales e-commerce businesses can benefit from such recovery immediately. However, in the long run, we believe SFUN’s secondary housing business can serve as another growth driver along with the market growth. Even though this business is quite new, SFUN was able to quickly gain market share with its lower commission rate. As the development of its new business still needs more upfront investments, we ……

    Read Room>>

  • NTES: Mobile Games Drive Growth; Expect 1Q15 Revenue to be Better; Maintain BUY
    NTES2015-05-12

    NTES: Mobile Games Drive Growth; Expect 1Q15 Revenue to be Better; Maintain BUY

    NTES will report 1Q15 results on Wed., May 13 after the close of the market followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We believe it is highly likely that NTES will report 1Q15 revenue above Street consensus with upside coming from its mobile games and to a certain extent, its PC MMO games. With its market expertise and game R&D know-how, we believe NTES is well positioned to capture millions of new mobile gamers. The mobile game market is just beginning its run.  As such, we maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to $146.00.……

    Read Room>>

About

Contact

Careers

T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offer real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects, from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to the China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
Address:

5E, Tower D, Central International Trade Center, 6 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Beijing 100022, China

Email:

services@thcapital-china.com

Do you enjoy pursuing original research in any aspect of the financial markets and have the ability to present research in a refreshing and captivating manner?
Careers