Research Reports

XRS will report FY3Q16 results before the market opens on Wednesday, January 27, 2016 with an 8:00AM EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we believe the company is likely to deliver FY3Q16 revenue better than the consensus expectation driven by strong growth in total course offered and course attendees offset by the decline in ASP. Also, we believe the bottom line may also better than consensus due to better topline growth. We remain positive on the revenue outlook of XRS. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating but lower our PT to $48.00. ……

EDU will report FY2Q16 results on Tuesday, January 19th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we expect EDU to report FY2Q16 revenue better than consensus driven by higher average spending per attendee and better course utilization rate. For the bottom line, we believe better utilization as well as less expansion can be positive to its margin. As EDU is making meaningful improvements in its K-12 course offerings and enrollments combined with its internet initiatives, we believe the growth can be sustained for the next couple of years. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target price to $34.00 from $29.00.……

October 1 – December 31, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Relative better growth in the number of SKU days and sold-out SKU days in 4Q15 – When VIPS shortened the duration of each of its sales events from 5 days to 3 days, the duration of the days of SKU display became a variable. Therefore, we introduced a new set of metrics - SKU days and sold-out SKU days to reflect such change. According to our proprietary data, the # of SKU days is likely to increase 59.5% Y/Y (12.0% Q/Q) in 4Q15 and the # of sold-out SKU days increased 83.1% Y/Y (Figure 1). We believe such growth is likely to lead to VIPS’ 4Q15 revenue to be at the higher end of it……

November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Registered and paying dealers increased for BITA in November – According to our proprietary data, BITA’s registered dealers grew to 26.1K (up 7.9% Y/Y and 0.7% M/M) in November 2015 from 25.9K in October 2015. The paying dealers of BITA increased to 19.0K (up 9.2% Y/Y and 1.4% M/M) in November from 18.7K in October 2015 (Figure 1). The paying ratio for BITA was 73.0%, up slightly from 72.5% in October (Figure 2). The retention ratio of paying dealers for BITA increased to 98.4% from 97.8% in October 2015 (Figure 3).……

November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Registered and paying dealers increased for ATHM in November – According to our proprietary data, the registered dealers of ATHM increased to 23.1K (up 5% Y/Y and 3% M/M) in November 2015 from 22.4K in October 2015 and paying dealers of ATHM increased to 18.8K (up 19% Y/Y and 2% M/M) from 18.4K during the same respective periods (Figure 1). In terms of the paying ratio, it declined slightly to 81.3% in November compared with 82.1% in October (Figure 2). The retention ratio of paying dealers for ATHM increased to 99.5% in November from 98.6% in October (Figure 3).……

October 1 – December 31, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•The engagement level for hot weibos and organized events was weaker in 4Q15 -  In December 2015, average comments, re-tweets and likes per hot weibo increased 8.6%, 3.9% and 18.4% M/M, respectively, however for 4Q15, they declined 21.8%, 21.4% and 30.3% Q/Q, respectively (Figure 1). Since the activities and engagement level of hot Weibos are closely related to key accounts’ advertising business, we do not expect strong key account ad performance.……

November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Utilization rate and rental rate increased Y/Y in November – CAR’s utilization and rental rates for November 2015 increased Y/Y (Figure 1). The utilization rate was 62% in November 2015 compared to 59% in October 2015 and 53.5% in November 2014. The rental rate for November was RMB271 compared with RMB282 in October 2015 and RMB248 in November 2014 (Figure 2). ……

November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Utilization rate decreased and rental rate increased Y/Y in November – EHIC’s utilization rate was 68.0% in November, down from 70.0% in October 2015 and 72.5% in November 2014. The rental rate for EHIC was RMB206 in November, lower than RMB218 in October 2015 but slightly higher than RMB203 in November 2014 (Figure 1 & 2). ……

4Q15 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report was extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•HTHT acquiring Hotel Home can be positive in 2016 – On December 24th, HTHT announced that it acquired 85% of Hotel Home’s (中州快捷酒店) shares. Hotel Home is located in Middle China with about 28 hotels in its network. Most of the hotels are in Henan Province as well as one hotel located each in Suzhou and Jiangsu Provinces.……

According to our proprietary data, both the number of courses and enrollments showed strong growth in FY3Q16. We remain positive on the revenue outlook of XRS. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $54.00 from $36.00 based on our new estimates. ……

•International app download rankings declined M/M in November – For 4Q15 (period of 10/1/2015 – 11/30/2015), the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking declined from #38.1 in 3Q15 to #40.4 in 4Q15, and the weighted average (based on the internet user population in each region) ranking declined from #33.9 in 3Q15 to #34.1 in 4Q15 (Figure 1). The average ranking for CM Security improved from #53.7 in 3Q15 to #45.5 in 4Q15; the weighted average ranking increased from #44.3 in 3Q15 to #40.0 in 4Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #126.8 in 3Q15 to #210.2 in 4Q, while the weighted average ranking fell from #122.3 in 3Q15 to #200.6 in 4Q15 (Figure 3). For November 2015, Clean Master average ranking decreased to #44.6 from #36.3 in October, and the……

SINA will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18th after the market closes followed by a 9:10pm EST earnings call. We are expecting at least in line 3Q15 results driven by potential solid results from its core business Weibo (WB, $16.98, Buy). Sina has been working hard to transition its portal business to vertical and we believe that several of its key focus areas have significant growth potentials. In our opinion, Sina’s business has bottomed and we could see some results in the near term. As such, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. ……

WB will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18 after the close of the markets followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting at least in line 3Q15 results driven by the company’s continued monetization efforts as well as focus on increasing user development and engagement levels. For 4Q15, we believe guidance may be at least in line with consensus as the upward trend on Weibo continues. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $21.00 from $16.00 based on our new estimates.……

LEJU will report 3Q15 results before the market opens on November 18, 2015 with a 7:00 AM ET conference call. In the past few months, the real estate market in China continued to pick up, from which we believe LEJU may benefit especially in the e-commerce sector. However, the intensifying competition from peers such as Soufun.com (SFUN, $7.57, BUY), Anjuke (WUBA, $52.56, Not Rated) and Fangduoduo (Private), may push LEJU to have lower take rates, which may lead to lower margins. Therefore, we believe the current EPS expectation can be aggressive and we maintain our Hold rating until we see margin stabilization. ……

Ctrip will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 after the close of the market followed by a 7pm EST conference call. We maintain our BUY rating and our raise price target to $110.00 as CTRP has become the absolute leader of the China online travel market after its investment in eLong (LONG, $17.01, HOLD) and Qunar (QUNR, $39.95, Not Rated). Along with the booming underlying consumer traveling market, we believe CTRP can enjoy high growth for years to come. As for its upcoming 3Q15 earnings, we are expecting at least in line 3Q15 revenue results driven by higher volumes of both hotel room nights and air, which are likely to be better than the company’s guidance driven by its aggressive expansion in the hotel business. Margins and earnings are likely to be better than consensu……

JD will report 3Q15 results on Monday, November 16th before the market open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are expecting in line 3Q revenue results, but the bottom line is likely to be better than consensus due to lower marketing activities. For 4Q, our analysis and data suggest that JD is highly likely to guide revenue above consensus expectation due to strong GMV growth in Nov. due to its 11 days of promotions for “11.11 Singles Day”. As such, we maintain our Buy rating and PT of $39.00.……

In 3Q15, we believe both SFUN’s primary and secondary housing sales were up meaningfully. Particularly, in its newly initiated ecommerce business in the secondary housing market, the company has made significant progress by expanding into 27 cities in 3Q15 from 13 in 2Q15. While we believe such aggressive expansion pressured its margins, it is necessary for long term growth. As such, we believe 3Q15 can be the worst quarter for SFUN’s margins and we are likely to see margin improvement from 4Q15 onward. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock and price target of $9.00. ……

•International app download rankings declined Q/Q in 3Q15 – For 3Q15, the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking declined from #16.4 in 2Q15 to #38.1 in 3Q15 (Figure 1); the weighted average ranking declined from #15.2 in 2Q15 to #33.9 in 3Q15. The average ranking for CM Security declined from #36.8 in 2Q15 to #53.7 in 3Q15; the weighted average ranking declined from #37.3 in 2Q15 to #44.3 in 3Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #90.6 in 2Q15 to #126.8 in 3Q15 while the weighted average ranking fell from #84.8 in 2Q15 to #122.3 in 3Q15  (Figure 3). ……