Research Reports

NTES will report 1Q16 results on Wednesday, May11th after the close of themarket followed by an 9pm EST conference call. NTES is highlylikely to deliver 1Q16 results better thanconsensus expectation ofnet revenue at $1,225.98M (117.1%Y/Y growth) drivenmainly by ecommerce while game and advertising are growing nicely. We believethat NTES can continue its strong growth in mobile games due to its strongcontent development capability. Wemaintain our Buy rating and raise our price target at $168.00.·        Steady growth in mobile games – According to our proprietary data, NTES’s mobilegames continue to be the growth driver. In 1Q16, the total number of gameservers reached 2,279, up 4.3% Q/Q from 2,184 in 4Q15 (Figure 1); among that, mobile game servers grew 8.7% Q/Q, while ……

Weibo will report 1Q16 results on Wednesday, May11th after themarket closes followed by an 9pm EST conference call. We are expecting Weibo toreport better 1Q16 results and to provide better 2Q16 guidance due tocontinuing execution of its monetization strategies as well as upward trend infan economy. From our proprietary data, we believe Weibo’s adoptions are at a highspeed and engagement level is continuing to trend up. As such we are optimisticabout Weibo’s outlook. Therefore, we maintain ourBUY rating on the stock and raise target price to $25.00 from $21.00·        Better engagements and adoption in fan economy fuel upsides in WB – As a leading player in today’s fan economy, Weibo continues to gainmomentum. There are two ways to show such momentum: 1) the engagements……

XRS will report FY4Q16 results before the market opens on Thursday, April 28,2016 with an 8:00AM EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, webelieve the company is likely to deliver FY4Q16 revenue better than the consensusexpectation driven by strong growth in total course offered and course attendeesoffset by the decline in ASP as a result of expansion and promotions. Our data alsoshows that the strong promotions as well as one-time higher tax in the quarter maycause margin pressure. However, we remain positive on the outlook of XRS as itscourses is demanded by students evdenced by the high course utilization rate.Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our PT to $55.00 from $48.00.……

T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – FY4Q16Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain RobustTmall drove GMV growth in FY4Q16 – According to our proprietary data, total GMV for BABA in FY4Q16 is likely to grow 23%Y/Y to reach RMB736B, of which, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 31% Y/Y (decline of 28% Q/Q) to RMB287B in F4Q16, while the GMV of Taobao is likely to grow 18% Y/Y (decline of 20% Q/Q) to reach RMB449B in F4Q16 (Figure 1). Commission revenue is likely to be at RMB5.66B in FY4Q16, or growth of 12% Y/Y (down 38% Q/Q) (Figure 4). Commissions revenue as a % of Tmall GMV is likely to drop to 1.97% in FY4Q16 from 2.29% in FY3Q16 (Figure 5).……

January 1 – February 29, 2016 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Direct sales GMV increased Y/Y in 1Q16 – For 1Q16, total GMV reached RMB143.0B, an increase of 62.9% Y/Y and down 0.1% Q/Q (Figure 1). Based on our proprietary data, net revenue is likely to grow 51.5% Y/Y (1.7% Q/Q) to reach RMB55.5B in 1Q16 (Figure 1).……

Ctrip will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, March 16, 2016 after the close of the market followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We believe that CTRP is highly likely to report 4Q results above Street expectations due to strong hotel expansion, which can be positive for revenue, as well as less couponing, which can be positive for both revenue and margin. The trends are likely to continue based on our proprietary data. As for its 1Q16 guidance, since CTRP is going to consolidate QUNR, we believe the revenue guidance can be much better than the Street consensus but margin expectation can be reset. We maintain our Buy rating.……

•International app download rankings was flattish M/M in January – For 4Q15, the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking was flattish at #38.2 from #38.1 in 3Q15, and the weighted average ranking (based on the internet user population in each region) improved from #33.9 in 3Q15 to #31.8 in 4Q15 (Figure 1). The average ranking for CM Security improved from #53.7 in 3Q15 to #48.2 in 4Q15; the weighted average ranking was flattish at #43.6 in 4Q15 from #44.3 in 3Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #126.8 in 3Q15 to #239.5 in 4Q15, while the weighted average ranking fell from #122.3 in 3Q15 to #218.2 in 4Q15 (Figure 3). For January 2016 (period of 1/1/2016 – 1/29/2016), Clean Master average ranking was stable at #33.3 vs. #33.7 in December 2015, ……

HTHT will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, March 10 after the market close followed by an 8pm ET conference call. We believe HTHT is likely to report 4Q15 results largely in line with consensus expectations. However, we believe current consensus expectation for 1Q16 may be conservative at 13% Y/Y growth before taking into account the consolidation of AccorHotels. We maintain our BUY rating as we believe HTHT can grow faster in 2016.……

LEJU will report 4Q15 results before the market opens on March 15, 2016 with a 7:00 AM ET conference call. LEJU has already preannounced 4Q15 revenue and expects revenue to come in lower than its previous guidance due to lower sales contracts. For 1Q16, we believe the intensifying competition from peers may continue to put pressure on LEJU’s business. Therefore, we believe consensus expectations for 1Q16 and full year 2016 are too aggressive and need to come down. We maintain our Hold rating until we see business stabilization. ……

BITA will report 4Q15 results on Tuesday, March 8th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Our proprietary data suggest that the company is likely to report 4Q results better than consensus and is likely to provide better 1Q16 guidance than the Street. ……

JD will report 4Q15 results on Tuesday, March 1st before the market open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are expecting 4Q revenue results to be better than consensus driven by strong growth in mobile phones, household appliances and digital. For 1Q16, we believe consensus expectation for JD’s revenue seems high. However, we do believe the company is steadily executing its strategy toward high growth and profitability. We maintain our Buy rating and PT of $39.00.……

WUBA will report 4Q15 results on Friday, February 26 before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Our proprietary data suggest that WUBA is likely to report 4Q15 results better than the Street expectation due to the increase in activity in Yellow Page, used car and secondary housing. For 1Q16, we believe WUBA is likely to guide revenue at least in line with consensus. Longer term-wise, we remain positive on the stock as WUBA is a monopoly in marketing services serving individuals and small & micro businesses, an industry that has high entry barriers. We also believe that we may see margin improvement in 2016 as expenses could be pared back versus 2015.……

Weibo will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, March 2nd after the market closes followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting Weibo to report at lease in line and highly likely better 4Q15 revenue due to continuing execution of its monetization strategies. For 1Q16, as the company is still in talks with Alibaba regarding the full year 2016 budget and the budgeting process has not yet been completed, we believe guidance may be softer than consensus expectation. However, we do believe Weibo is a major platform that generates significant traffic for Alibaba and the budget will eventually get settled. Therefore, we are positive for its full year outlook and maintain our BUY rating on the stock.……

VIPS will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, February 25th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are expecting VIPS to report 4Q15 revenue better than consensus due to the growth in its SKU-days and better sold-out rate. However, for 1Q16, we don’t expect the company to provide guidance higher than current consensus at 43% Y/Y revenue growth as the company is getting mature. ……

BIDU will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, February 25 after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We do not have anything special to say about BIDU’s 4Q15, and we are expecting 4Q15 results to be at least in line but highly likely to be better than consensus expectation. However, we do believe the current consensus for 2016 revenue growth at 24.5% Y/Y is too low as BIDU’s subsidiaries including Nuomi and food delivery are likely to drive higher growth. This high growth can be the result of BIDU’s strong intention to list these subsidiaries in the local market. In order to have a better valuation, BIDU is pushing for more market share gains. We maintain our Buy rating. ……

SFUN will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, February 25th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We expect SFUN’s 4Q15 results to be better than its own guidance at about 20% Y/Y growth, implying 4Q15 revenue to be at $260M. The consensus revenue expectation is too high, which we believe was due to the lack of updates in analysts’ models. As China enters into 2016, we believe secondary housing is an area that can experience rapid growth as the government intends to push for digestion of housing inventories. As such, SFUN can be a beneficiary. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock and price target of $9.00. ……

NTES will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, February 24th after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. NTES is highly likely to deliver 4Q15 results better than consensus expectation of net revenue at $1,152.9M (107% Y/Y growth) driven by robust mobile games growth as well as mobile advertising growth. We believe that NTES can continue its strong growth momentum in mobile games because of its strong content development capability, which has an advantage over any distribution platform. We maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to $168.00.……

CYOU will report 4Q15 results on Monday, February 1st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. In the near term, we don’t see any excitement in its game pipeline and results may lack upside. As such, we expect 4Q15 results to be at most in line with consensus. We believe that the company is going through another hurdle as it struggles to find a sustainable long term growth driver. While CYOU appeared to find some significant momentum in its mobile games in late 2014 and early 2015, the momentum has passed. We believe CYOU may continue to stagnate as it refines its game development. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.……