Research Reports

  • T. H. Data Flash – Bitauto Holdings (BITA) – November 2015: Paying Dealers Were Up For BITA
    BITAATHM2016-01-12

    T. H. Data Flash – Bitauto Holdings (BITA) – November 2015: Paying Dealers Were Up For BITA

    November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Registered and paying dealers increased for BITA in November – According to our proprietary data, BITA’s registered dealers grew to 26.1K (up 7.9% Y/Y and 0.7% M/M) in November 2015 from 25.9K in October 2015. The paying dealers of BITA increased to 19.0K (up 9.2% Y/Y and 1.4% M/M) in November from 18.7K in October 2015 (Figure 1). The paying ratio for BITA was 73.0%, up slightly from 72.5% in October (Figure 2). The retention ratio of paying dealers for BITA increased to 98.4% from 97.8% in October 2015 (Figure 3).……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Autohome Inc. (ATHM) – November 2015: Paying Dealers Continue to Increase for ATHM
    ATHM2016-01-08

    T. H. Data Flash – Autohome Inc. (ATHM) – November 2015: Paying Dealers Continue to Increase for ATHM

    November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Registered and paying dealers increased for ATHM in November – According to our proprietary data, the registered dealers of ATHM increased to 23.1K (up 5% Y/Y and 3% M/M) in November 2015 from 22.4K in October 2015 and paying dealers of ATHM increased to 18.8K (up 19% Y/Y and 2% M/M) from 18.4K during the same respective periods (Figure 1). In terms of the paying ratio, it declined slightly to 81.3% in November compared with 82.1% in October (Figure 2). The retention ratio of paying dealers for ATHM increased to 99.5% in November from 98.6% in October (Figure 3).……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Weibo Corporation (WB) – December 2015: Upward Trend in Weibo Activities and Engagement Levels; Maintain Buy Rating
    WB2016-01-07

    T. H. Data Flash – Weibo Corporation (WB) – December 2015: Upward Trend in Weibo Activities and Engagement Levels; Maintain Buy Rating

    October 1 – December 31, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•The engagement level for hot weibos and organized events was weaker in 4Q15 -  In December 2015, average comments, re-tweets and likes per hot weibo increased 8.6%, 3.9% and 18.4% M/M, respectively, however for 4Q15, they declined 21.8%, 21.4% and 30.3% Q/Q, respectively (Figure 1). Since the activities and engagement level of hot Weibos are closely related to key accounts’ advertising business, we do not expect strong key account ad performance.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – CAR Inc. (0699-HK) – November 2015: Number of Stores Continues to Grow Y/Y; Utilization Rate Increased While Rental Rates Declined M/M in November
    699.HK2016-01-05

    T. H. Data Flash – CAR Inc. (0699-HK) – November 2015: Number of Stores Continues to Grow Y/Y; Utilization Rate Increased While Rental Rates Declined M/M in November

    November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Utilization rate and rental rate increased Y/Y in November – CAR’s utilization and rental rates for November 2015 increased Y/Y (Figure 1). The utilization rate was 62% in November 2015 compared to 59% in October 2015 and 53.5% in November 2014. The rental rate for November was RMB271 compared with RMB282 in October 2015 and RMB248 in November 2014 (Figure 2). ……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – eHi Car Services Ltd. (EHIC) – November 2015: Utilization Rates and Number of Stores Declined M/M
    EHIC2016-01-04

    T. H. Data Flash – eHi Car Services Ltd. (EHIC) – November 2015: Utilization Rates and Number of Stores Declined M/M

    November 1 – November 30, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Utilization rate decreased and rental rate increased Y/Y in November – EHIC’s utilization rate was 68.0% in November, down from 70.0% in October 2015 and 72.5% in November 2014. The rental rate for EHIC was RMB206 in November, lower than RMB218 in October 2015 but slightly higher than RMB203 in November 2014 (Figure 1 & 2). ……

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  • T. H. Data Flash - HTHT: Industry Integration Continued; RevPAR Could Decline Y/Y in 4Q15 Due To Soft Occupancy Rate
    HTHT2016-01-04

    T. H. Data Flash - HTHT: Industry Integration Continued; RevPAR Could Decline Y/Y in 4Q15 Due To Soft Occupancy Rate

    4Q15 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report was extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•HTHT acquiring Hotel Home can be positive in 2016 – On December 24th, HTHT announced that it acquired 85% of Hotel Home’s (中州快捷酒店) shares. Hotel Home is located in Middle China with about 28 hotels in its network. Most of the hotels are in Henan Province as well as one hotel located each in Suzhou and Jiangsu Provinces.……

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  •  XRS: FY3Q16 Shows Strong Growth in Courses and Enrollment Due To Expansion; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $54.00
    XRS2015-12-18

    XRS: FY3Q16 Shows Strong Growth in Courses and Enrollment Due To Expansion; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $54.00

    According to our proprietary data, both the number of courses and enrollments showed strong growth in FY3Q16. We remain positive on the revenue outlook of XRS. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $54.00 from $36.00 based on our new estimates. ……

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  • Cheetah Mobile Inc. (CMCM) - November 2015: International Google Play Rankings Declined in November and 4Q15, While Downloads Increased Domestically
    CMCM2015-12-17

    Cheetah Mobile Inc. (CMCM) - November 2015: International Google Play Rankings Declined in November and 4Q15, While Downloads Increased Domestically

    •International app download rankings declined M/M in November – For 4Q15 (period of 10/1/2015 – 11/30/2015), the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking declined from #38.1 in 3Q15 to #40.4 in 4Q15, and the weighted average (based on the internet user population in each region) ranking declined from #33.9 in 3Q15 to #34.1 in 4Q15 (Figure 1). The average ranking for CM Security improved from #53.7 in 3Q15 to #45.5 in 4Q15; the weighted average ranking increased from #44.3 in 3Q15 to #40.0 in 4Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #126.8 in 3Q15 to #210.2 in 4Q, while the weighted average ranking fell from #122.3 in 3Q15 to #200.6 in 4Q15 (Figure 3). For November 2015, Clean Master average ranking decreased to #44.6 from #36.3 in October, and the……

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  • SINA: Vertical Focus May Show Results Soon; Expect At Least In Line 3Q15 Results; Maintain Buy
    SINA2015-11-17

    SINA: Vertical Focus May Show Results Soon; Expect At Least In Line 3Q15 Results; Maintain Buy

    SINA will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18th after the market closes followed by a 9:10pm EST earnings call. We are expecting at least in line 3Q15 results driven by potential solid results from its core business Weibo (WB, $16.98, Buy). Sina has been working hard to transition its portal business to vertical and we believe that several of its key focus areas have significant growth potentials. In our opinion, Sina’s business has bottomed and we could see some results in the near term. As such, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. ……

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  • WB: 3Q15 Results To Be Strong Driven By Increasing Weibo Activities and Monetization; Maintain Buy and Raise PT
    WB2015-11-17

    WB: 3Q15 Results To Be Strong Driven By Increasing Weibo Activities and Monetization; Maintain Buy and Raise PT

    WB will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18 after the close of the markets followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting at least in line 3Q15 results driven by the company’s continued monetization efforts as well as focus on increasing user development and engagement levels. For 4Q15, we believe guidance may be at least in line with consensus as the upward trend on Weibo continues. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $21.00 from $16.00 based on our new estimates.……

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  • LEJU: Competition Heated Up in 3Q15, Pressuring Growth Rate and Margins; Maintain Hold
    LEJU2015-11-16

    LEJU: Competition Heated Up in 3Q15, Pressuring Growth Rate and Margins; Maintain Hold

    LEJU will report 3Q15 results before the market opens on November 18, 2015 with a 7:00 AM ET conference call. In the past few months, the real estate market in China continued to pick up, from which we believe LEJU may benefit especially in the e-commerce sector. However, the intensifying competition from peers such as Soufun.com (SFUN, $7.57, BUY), Anjuke (WUBA, $52.56, Not Rated) and Fangduoduo (Private), may push LEJU to have lower take rates, which may lead to lower margins. Therefore, we believe the current EPS expectation can be aggressive and we maintain our Hold rating until we see margin stabilization. ……

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  • CTRP: Maintain BUY on Its Absolute Market Leadership Position; Expect Solid 3Q15 Results on Hotel Expansion
    CTRPLONGQUNR2015-11-16

    CTRP: Maintain BUY on Its Absolute Market Leadership Position; Expect Solid 3Q15 Results on Hotel Expansion

    Ctrip will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 after the close of the market followed by a 7pm EST conference call. We maintain our BUY rating and our raise price target to $110.00 as CTRP has become the absolute leader of the China online travel market after its investment in eLong (LONG, $17.01, HOLD) and Qunar (QUNR, $39.95, Not Rated). Along with the booming underlying consumer traveling market, we believe CTRP can enjoy high growth for years to come. As for its upcoming 3Q15 earnings, we are expecting at least in line 3Q15 revenue results driven by higher volumes of both hotel room nights and air, which are likely to be better than the company’s guidance driven by its aggressive expansion in the hotel business. Margins and earnings are likely to be better than consensu……

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  • JD: Expect In Line 3Q15 Revenue, but 4Q15 Guidance Can Be Better; Maintain BUY and PT
    JD2015-11-14

    JD: Expect In Line 3Q15 Revenue, but 4Q15 Guidance Can Be Better; Maintain BUY and PT

    JD will report 3Q15 results on Monday, November 16th before the market open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are expecting in line 3Q revenue results, but the bottom line is likely to be better than consensus due to lower marketing activities. For 4Q, our analysis and data suggest that JD is highly likely to guide revenue above consensus expectation due to strong GMV growth in Nov. due to its 11 days of promotions for “11.11 Singles Day”. As such, we maintain our Buy rating and PT of $39.00.……

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  • SFUN: Significant Progress in Secondary Housing Sales; Margin Can be Worse but Bottomed; Maintain BUY
    SFUN2015-11-12

    SFUN: Significant Progress in Secondary Housing Sales; Margin Can be Worse but Bottomed; Maintain BUY

    In 3Q15, we believe both SFUN’s primary and secondary housing sales were up meaningfully. Particularly, in its newly initiated ecommerce business in the secondary housing market, the company has made significant progress by expanding into 27 cities in 3Q15 from 13 in 2Q15. While we believe such aggressive expansion pressured its margins, it is necessary for long term growth. As such, we believe 3Q15 can be the worst quarter for SFUN’s margins and we are likely to see margin improvement from 4Q15 onward. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock and price target of $9.00. ……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – October 2015: International Google Play Rankings and Rankings by Country Fell in 3Q15; Local Downloads Continue to Grow
    CMCM2015-11-11

    T. H. Data Flash – October 2015: International Google Play Rankings and Rankings by Country Fell in 3Q15; Local Downloads Continue to Grow

    •International app download rankings declined Q/Q in 3Q15 – For 3Q15, the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking declined from #16.4 in 2Q15 to #38.1 in 3Q15 (Figure 1); the weighted average ranking declined from #15.2 in 2Q15 to #33.9 in 3Q15. The average ranking for CM Security declined from #36.8 in 2Q15 to #53.7 in 3Q15; the weighted average ranking declined from #37.3 in 2Q15 to #44.3 in 3Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #90.6 in 2Q15 to #126.8 in 3Q15 while the weighted average ranking fell from #84.8 in 2Q15 to #122.3 in 3Q15  (Figure 3). ……

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  • HTHT: Expect Better 3Q15 Results and 4Q15 Guidance; Upgrade to BUY from HOLD on Recovering Underlying Operations
    HTHT2015-11-10

    HTHT: Expect Better 3Q15 Results and 4Q15 Guidance; Upgrade to BUY from HOLD on Recovering Underlying Operations

    HTHT will report 3Q15 results on Tuesday, November 10, 2015 after the market close followed by an 8pm ET conference call. We believe HTHT is likely to report better 3Q15 results and provide better 4Q15 guidance compared with Street expectations. The upside we believe is mainly driven by the recovery in RevPARs particularly in the mature hotels. Based on its operation data as well as our proprietary data, we believe HTHT’s business is on an upward trend, principally in RevPARs. However, we believe current consensus expectation for 4Q15 has not taken such upward trend into consideration. As such, we upgrade the stock from a Hold to BUY rating with a price target of $36.00.……

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  • NTES: Mobile Games Continue to Outperform Expectations; Maintain Buy
    NTES2015-11-09

    NTES: Mobile Games Continue to Outperform Expectations; Maintain Buy

    NTES will report 3Q15 results on Wed., November 11 after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We believe that NTES’s mobile games continue to perform strongly, even though the consensus 3Q15 revenue at 73.9% Y/Y growth may look aggressive. We maintain our Buy rating and we will revisit our model and valuation after earnings.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Autohome Inc. – September 2015: Growing Paying Dealers Drive ATHM’s 3Q15 Results to be Better than Consensus
    ATHM2015-11-04

    T. H. Data Flash – Autohome Inc. – September 2015: Growing Paying Dealers Drive ATHM’s 3Q15 Results to be Better than Consensus

    •Registered and paying dealers increased for ATHM in 3Q15 – According to our proprietary data, the registered dealers of ATHM increased to 22.8K in September from 21.7K in August and paying dealers of ATHM increased to 19.0K in September from 18.1K in August (Figure 1). For 3Q15, ATHM had 19.6K unique paying dealers representing Y/Y growth at 34% and Q/Q growth at 5% (Figure 2). In terms of the paying ratio, it steadily went up to 80.4% in 3Q15 compared with 76.3% in 2Q15 (Figure 3). ……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Jumei International – 3Q15 & October 2015: Promotional Events to Drive the Growth of Curated Sales GMV in 3Q15; Marketing for User Growth May Put Pressure on Margins
    JMEI2015-11-03

    T. H. Data Flash – Jumei International – 3Q15 & October 2015: Promotional Events to Drive the Growth of Curated Sales GMV in 3Q15; Marketing for User Growth May Put Pressure on Margins

    •Promotional events in 3Q15 – Jumei had three major promotions during the September quarter that we believe are the drivers of growth in 3Q15, including: 1) July 7th - 0 RMB for one Jumei Global product promotion (7月7日免费包邮领取一件海外爆款); 2) August 1st - 3.5 years anniversary promotion; and 3) September 21st - mom & baby products promotion (Figure 1). The promotion on August 1st is a big one and serves as a major driver for volume growth in the quarter.……

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  • BIDU: The Quarter Can Be Overwhelmed by O2O Initiatives; Maintain BUY Rating but Lowering PT
    BIDU2015-10-28

    BIDU: The Quarter Can Be Overwhelmed by O2O Initiatives; Maintain BUY Rating but Lowering PT

    We believe BIDU almost has no alternatives but to invest in food delivery as well as group-buy business in order to overcome constrains of its past success in PC search, which is that BIDU does not require users to register. In the mobile era, its peers Tencent (700-HK, HK$149.10 – Intraday, Not Rated) captures millions of mobile users with its communications tools, mobile QQ and WeChat, and Alibaba (BABA, $79.71, Buy) with its Alipay while BIDU had nothing to accomplish such task. In the PC era, the internet entry point can be search but in the mobile era, it has become the individual mobile user. We believe that with BIDU’s rich cash position, map, data and its determination, there is a chance that food delivery and group-buy can enable the company to accomplish such goal. Therefore, whi……

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T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offer real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects, from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to the China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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