Research Reports

  • T. H. Data Flash – Momo Inc. (MOMO) – November & 4Q19E: Positive On Performance Into 4Q19E With Faster Recovery From Sanctions In The Summer; Maintain Buy Rating
    2019-12-11

    T. H. Data Flash – Momo Inc. (MOMO) – November & 4Q19E: Positive On Performance Into 4Q19E With Faster Recovery From Sanctions In The Summer; Maintain Buy Rating

    We are positive on MOMO’s performance in 4Q19. MOMO’s user base only showed about 4% Y/Y growth in 3Q19 as it was recovering from the government’s sanctions imposed on the company in May and June. Getting into 4Q19, the recovery is faster. Our data shows that the concurrent users for MOMO picked up its growth and Tantan’s users and time spend are also seeing upside on a monthly basis. ……

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  • 3690.HK: Higher Growth of Orders and GTV Leading To Positive Performance In 3Q19E
    2019-11-16

    3690.HK: Higher Growth of Orders and GTV Leading To Positive Performance In 3Q19E

    Meituan will report 3Q19 results on November 21st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance for 3Q19 due to continuous top-line growth and margin expansion. Based on our data and model, Meituan Dianping revenue is likely to be above consensus at RMB 25.553B in 3Q19 as a result of higher growth in GTVs and orders as well as other lines of businesses.……

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  • MOMO: Reactivation of Apps Drive Higher User Growth In Both MOMO and Tantan and Better 3Q19 Performance; Maintain Buy Rating & Raise PT
    2019-11-15

    MOMO: Reactivation of Apps Drive Higher User Growth In Both MOMO and Tantan and Better 3Q19 Performance; Maintain Buy Rating & Raise PT

    MOMO will report 3Q19 results on November 26th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on MOMO’s performance in 3Q19 driven by the user growth of MOMO and better performance of Tantan as a result of the reactivation of MOMO and Tantan after both APPs were suspended by the Chinese government in May and June. After the removal of the suspensions, MOMO hosted many events in July and August; these events are positive for the growth of both MAU and paying users. ……

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  • ZTO: Dominant Market Leader Taking More Market Share; High Growth In Parcel Volumes Driving Better 3Q19 Performance
    2019-11-15

    ZTO: Dominant Market Leader Taking More Market Share; High Growth In Parcel Volumes Driving Better 3Q19 Performance

    ZTO will report 3Q19 results on November 18th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, ZTO’s parcel volume is likely to grow 46.6% Y/Y to 3,072M in 3Q19, stable with 46.8% Y/Y growth in 2Q19, and higher than the full year parcel guidance at 35% - 40% Y/Y growth, and much higher than the industry at about 27.6% Y/Y in 3Q19. We believe, as a dominant market leader, ZTO has the capability to win over more business not only with its competitive price, but more with its infrastructure and efficiency. ……

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  • WUBA: Most of the Negatives Are Baked In; Expect At Least In Line 3Q19; Maintain BUY
    WUBA2019-11-13

    WUBA: Most of the Negatives Are Baked In; Expect At Least In Line 3Q19; Maintain BUY

    WUBA will report 3Q19 results on November 19th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our data, assumptions and calculations, we believe WUBA’s 3Q19E topline is likely to be slightly above consensus at RMB4,089M and towards the middle point of the company’s guidance (RMB4,100M - RMB4,200M, or 13% - 16% Y/Y growth). China’s economy was still weak in 3Q19 with PMI at below 50. ……

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  • NTES: Putting Away Money Losing Businesses To Focus On Game And Margin; Positive On Future Margin Improvement; Maintain Buy
    NTES2019-11-13

    NTES: Putting Away Money Losing Businesses To Focus On Game And Margin; Positive On Future Margin Improvement; Maintain Buy

    NTES will report 3Q19 results on November 20th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We are positive on NTES’s performance into 3Q19. NTES’s focus in 2019 is to streamline its business. In September, the company sold Kaola to Alibaba (BABA, $186.97, Buy), raised external funding for its music business, and the IPO of its education business Youdao (DAO, $14.27, Not Rated). ……

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  • BILI: More Users And All Three Lines Of Business To Do Well And To Drive Better Performance in 3Q19
    2019-11-12

    BILI: More Users And All Three Lines Of Business To Do Well And To Drive Better Performance in 3Q19

    BILI will report 3Q19 results on November 18th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. Our data showed that BILI made significant progress in all three fronts of UGC videos, live broadcastings and game. Based on our data and model, we believe the company’s revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB1,765M and our model at RMB1,757.5M. In addition, we estimate that paying users is likely to be up at least 10% Q/Q to reach 7.0M in 3Q19 from 6.3M 2Q19.……

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  • PDD: Three-Step Customer Acquisition To Target High Spenders; Positive for GMV And Margin; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Better Than Consensus
    2019-11-12

    PDD: Three-Step Customer Acquisition To Target High Spenders; Positive for GMV And Margin; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Better Than Consensus

    PDD will report 3Q19 results on November 20th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, in 3Q19E, PDD’s revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB7,414M (120% Y/Y growth) driven by its continuing efforts to tap into higher end customers while maintaining its existing lower tier city users. For the key factor sales & marketing expense, we estimate that in 3Q19 it is likely to be between RMB6.1B and RMB6.3B, and we believe the new loss margin is unlikely to widen more than in 2Q19.……

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  • JD: 2H19 Investing For User Growth In Lower Tier Cities; New Initiatives Driving Better Topline Growth In 3Q19
    JD2019-11-11

    JD: 2H19 Investing For User Growth In Lower Tier Cities; New Initiatives Driving Better Topline Growth In 3Q19

    JD will report 3Q19 results on November 15th before the markets open with a 7am EST call. We are positive on JD’s 3Q19 performance. Based on our data and calculations, JD’s net revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB128.6B (22.7% Y/Y growth) as well as our estimate at RMB127.8B. In the 1H2019, the company accomplished 2.5% non-GAAP net margin, and it plans to invest more resources back into new business initiatives such as a new version of Pingou on WeChat and new product Jingxi lower tier city and category expansion as well as some other initiatives. ……

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  • T. H. Data Flash - Luckin Coffee - October & 3Q19: Driven By New Store Openings, Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus
    2019-11-07

    T. H. Data Flash - Luckin Coffee - October & 3Q19: Driven By New Store Openings, Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus

    LK will release 3Q19 earnings on November 13th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, we believe LK’s total revenue in 3Q19 is likely to be higher than the high-end of guidance range of RMB1,350M – RMB1,450M, and higher than consensus at RMB1,496.2M or US$210.7M (based on exchange rate of RMB7.1000 = USD 1). We believe the better topline growth is mainly driven by the number of newly added stores. The company added ~597 new stores bringing the total number of stores at 3,560 in 3Q19. Compared with its store target of 4,500 at the end of 2019, the company has about almost 1,000 more to add in 4Q19. The same store customer traffic was higher than 2Q19 and 3Q18, but did not surpass the high in 4Q18.……

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  • VIPS: Consistent Topline Growth With Consistent Margin Improvement As A Result Of Execution Of Renewed Strategy; Expect Better 3Q19
    VIPS2019-11-07

    VIPS: Consistent Topline Growth With Consistent Margin Improvement As A Result Of Execution Of Renewed Strategy; Expect Better 3Q19

    VIPS will report 3Q19 results on November 13th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Since the beginning of 2019, VIPS has adjusted its business strategy by re-focusing on what it is good at – apparel off season sales. The execution of this renewed strategy actually led VIPS to accomplish moderate topline growth and improvement of its margins. We are expecting a similar trend in 3Q19. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 3Q19 revenue is likely to be RMB18.91B (6.0% Y/Y growth), above consensus at RMB18.55B (4.0% Y/Y) and our model and above the high end of its guidance (RMB17.8B – RMB18.7B) with good margin.……

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  • BZUN: Managing Growth Post Huawei and “6.18” Promotions; Expect At Least In Line 3Q19
    2019-11-06

    BZUN: Managing Growth Post Huawei and “6.18” Promotions; Expect At Least In Line 3Q19

    BZUN will report 3Q19 results in mid-November. Based on our data and calculation, we believe BZUN’s net revenue in 3Q19E is likely to be within its guidance range of RMB1,500M – RMB1,550M (35% – 40% Y/Y growth), at least in line with consensus expectation at RMB1,520M and better than our model estimate at RMB1,508.1M. The GMV growth was slower than before due to a couple of reasons. Over-promotion in 2Q19 as well as some level of economic slowdown was negative to the growth of GMV in 3Q19.……

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  • JOBS: Coping With The Weakness Of China’s Economy, Which Is Toward The Bottom; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Within Its Guidance
    JOBS2019-11-06

    JOBS: Coping With The Weakness Of China’s Economy, Which Is Toward The Bottom; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Within Its Guidance

    JOBS will report 3Q19 results on November 14th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are positive on JOBS’ performance in 3Q19. Based on multiple sets of data, we believe China’s economy is reaching its bottom. We cannot predict when the economy is likely to recover; however, we believe it may be hard to go further down. Based on our data and calculations, we believe 51Job’s revenue in 3Q19 is likely to be within the company’s guidance range of RMB 915M – RMB 955M.……

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  • HUYA: Tournaments Drive MAU Growth; Expect Better 3Q19 Results
    YY2019-11-06

    HUYA: Tournaments Drive MAU Growth; Expect Better 3Q19 Results

    HUYA will report 3Q19 earnings on November 12th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are positive on HUYA’s 3Q19E performance. Based on our data and calculations, we believe Huya’s revenue is likely to beat consensus at RMB2,162M as well as our model at RMB2,145M. We believe the better performance is driven by high MAU growth, as HUYA held several major e-sport tournaments during 3Q19.……

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  • CTRP: Most Of The Negatives Are Baked In; Expect Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus in 3Q19
    CTRP2019-11-04

    CTRP: Most Of The Negatives Are Baked In; Expect Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus in 3Q19

    CTRP will report 3Q19 results on November 13th after the markets close followed by a 7pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we expect CTRP’s 3Q19 net revenue to be above consensus at RMB 10,479.5M (12.0% Y/Y growth) and toward the middle to high end of its guidance range (10% - 15% Y/Y). Going forward, while we don’t believe there can be a short term rebound in China’s economy, the negatives from HK protests and domestic economic weakness have already been baked into the stock price movement, in our view. ……

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  • HTHT: Higher Volume Growth Driving Better 3Q19 Topline Growth; Maintain Long-Term BUY
    HTHT2019-11-04

    HTHT: Higher Volume Growth Driving Better 3Q19 Topline Growth; Maintain Long-Term BUY

    HTHT will report 3Q19 results on November 12th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. According to preliminary data released by the HTHT and our data as well as our model, total revenue is likely to be above consensus at RMB 3,063M and coming in toward the high end of the company’s guidance at RMB 3,016.6M – RMB 3,071.99M. ……

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  • TME: Expect TME’s 3Q19 Revenue To Beat Consensus Driven By Better Growth In Music Subscriptions and Subscription Ratio
    2019-11-04

    TME: Expect TME’s 3Q19 Revenue To Beat Consensus Driven By Better Growth In Music Subscriptions and Subscription Ratio

    TME will report 3Q19 results on November 11thafter the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are positiveon TME’s 3Q19 performance. This is the first time since its IPO that we believethe company is likely to outperform instead of missing consensus expectation. ……

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  • BIDU: Coping With Internal And External Challenges; Expect BIDU’s 3Q19 Revenue To Be In Line
    BIDU2019-11-01

    BIDU: Coping With Internal And External Challenges; Expect BIDU’s 3Q19 Revenue To Be In Line

    BIDU will report 3Q19 results on November 6th after the markets close followed by an 8:15pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe BIDU’s total revenue is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB27.572B, and within its guidance range of RMB 26.900B – RMB 28.500B. The year of 2019 is a challenging year for BIDU. ……

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  • ATHM: Coping With Weak Auto Market; Marketing Spending Up; Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be In Line
    ATHM2019-10-30

    ATHM: Coping With Weak Auto Market; Marketing Spending Up; Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be In Line

    ATHM will report 3Q19 results on November 5th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. It is not an easy environment in 2H2019, as the auto market in China has continued its downward trend, worse than expected. As one of the leading online lead generation platforms for auto sales, ATHM is coping with the weak market and it spent additional marketing dollars to help dealers as well as OEMs to get rid of inventories and to promote the sales of new cars. It is inevitable to have relatively weaker topline growth and margins. ……

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  • IQ: Hanging Headwinds Impact Growth Outlook; Expect In Line 3Q19 Revenue
    2019-10-28

    IQ: Hanging Headwinds Impact Growth Outlook; Expect In Line 3Q19 Revenue

    IQ will report 3Q19 results on November 6th after the markets close followed by a 7pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe IQ’s total revenue is likely to be in line with consensus expectation at RMB7,240M and toward the lower end of its guidance range. Subscribing members in 3Q19 is likely to be 102.0M, vs. 100.5M in 2Q19 with ~1.5M additions. 2019 is not a good year for IQ as it is facing multiple headwinds.……

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T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offer real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects, from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to the China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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