Research Reports

  • T.H. Capital - T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group (BABA): Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain Robust
    BABA2016-03-28

    T.H. Capital - T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group (BABA): Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain Robust

    T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – FY4Q16Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain RobustTmall drove GMV growth in FY4Q16 – According to our proprietary data, total GMV for BABA in FY4Q16 is likely to grow 23%Y/Y to reach RMB736B, of which, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 31% Y/Y (decline of 28% Q/Q) to RMB287B in F4Q16, while the GMV of Taobao is likely to grow 18% Y/Y (decline of 20% Q/Q) to reach RMB449B in F4Q16 (Figure 1). Commission revenue is likely to be at RMB5.66B in FY4Q16, or growth of 12% Y/Y (down 38% Q/Q) (Figure 4). Commissions revenue as a % of Tmall GMV is likely to drop to 1.97% in FY4Q16 from 2.29% in FY3Q16 (Figure 5).……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – JD.com, Inc. (JD) – January & February 2016: GMVs and Commissions in January & February 2016
    JD2016-03-24

    T. H. Data Flash – JD.com, Inc. (JD) – January & February 2016: GMVs and Commissions in January & February 2016

    January 1 – February 29, 2016 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Direct sales GMV increased Y/Y in 1Q16 – For 1Q16, total GMV reached RMB143.0B, an increase of 62.9% Y/Y and down 0.1% Q/Q (Figure 1). Based on our proprietary data, net revenue is likely to grow 51.5% Y/Y (1.7% Q/Q) to reach RMB55.5B in 1Q16 (Figure 1).……

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  • CTRP: Consolidation and Hotel Expansion Led to Better Revenue Growth; 4Q15 Margin Can Be Better Due to Less Competition, but Is Likely to be Reset; Maintain Buy
    CTRP2016-03-14

    CTRP: Consolidation and Hotel Expansion Led to Better Revenue Growth; 4Q15 Margin Can Be Better Due to Less Competition, but Is Likely to be Reset; Maintain Buy

    Ctrip will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, March 16, 2016 after the close of the market followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We believe that CTRP is highly likely to report 4Q results above Street expectations due to strong hotel expansion, which can be positive for revenue, as well as less couponing, which can be positive for both revenue and margin. The trends are likely to continue based on our proprietary data. As for its 1Q16 guidance, since CTRP is going to consolidate QUNR, we believe the revenue guidance can be much better than the Street consensus but margin expectation can be reset. We maintain our Buy rating.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Cheetah Mobile Inc. (CMCM) - January 2016: International Google Play Rankings Remained Flattish Q/Q in 4Q15 and M/M in January 2016
    CMCM2016-03-14

    T. H. Data Flash – Cheetah Mobile Inc. (CMCM) - January 2016: International Google Play Rankings Remained Flattish Q/Q in 4Q15 and M/M in January 2016

    •International app download rankings was flattish M/M in January – For 4Q15, the Clean Master (CM) Google Play average ranking was flattish at #38.2 from #38.1 in 3Q15, and the weighted average ranking (based on the internet user population in each region) improved from #33.9 in 3Q15 to #31.8 in 4Q15 (Figure 1). The average ranking for CM Security improved from #53.7 in 3Q15 to #48.2 in 4Q15; the weighted average ranking was flattish at #43.6 in 4Q15 from #44.3 in 3Q15 (Figure 2). In terms of Battery Doctor, the average ranking declined from #126.8 in 3Q15 to #239.5 in 4Q15, while the weighted average ranking fell from #122.3 in 3Q15 to #218.2 in 4Q15 (Figure 3). For January 2016 (period of 1/1/2016 – 1/29/2016), Clean Master average ranking was stable at #33.3 vs. #33.7 in December 2015, ……

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  • HTHT: 1Q16 Guidance May Benefit from the Integration of AccorHotels; Expect In Line 4Q15 Results; Maintain BUY and PT
    HTHT2016-03-10

    HTHT: 1Q16 Guidance May Benefit from the Integration of AccorHotels; Expect In Line 4Q15 Results; Maintain BUY and PT

    HTHT will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, March 10 after the market close followed by an 8pm ET conference call. We believe HTHT is likely to report 4Q15 results largely in line with consensus expectations. However, we believe current consensus expectation for 1Q16 may be conservative at 13% Y/Y growth before taking into account the consolidation of AccorHotels. We maintain our BUY rating as we believe HTHT can grow faster in 2016.……

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  • LEJU: Consensus for 4Q15 and Full Year 2016 is Too Aggressive; Maintain Hold
    LEJU2016-03-10

    LEJU: Consensus for 4Q15 and Full Year 2016 is Too Aggressive; Maintain Hold

    LEJU will report 4Q15 results before the market opens on March 15, 2016 with a 7:00 AM ET conference call. LEJU has already preannounced 4Q15 revenue and expects revenue to come in lower than its previous guidance due to lower sales contracts. For 1Q16, we believe the intensifying competition from peers may continue to put pressure on LEJU’s business. Therefore, we believe consensus expectations for 1Q16 and full year 2016 are too aggressive and need to come down. We maintain our Hold rating until we see business stabilization. ……

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  • BITA: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Results and Better 1Q16 Guidance
    BITA2016-03-03

    BITA: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Results and Better 1Q16 Guidance

    BITA will report 4Q15 results on Tuesday, March 8th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Our proprietary data suggest that the company is likely to report 4Q results better than consensus and is likely to provide better 1Q16 guidance than the Street. ……

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  • JD: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Revenue; 1Q16 Consensus Seems High; Maintain BUY and PT
    JD2016-02-26

    JD: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Revenue; 1Q16 Consensus Seems High; Maintain BUY and PT

    JD will report 4Q15 results on Tuesday, March 1st before the market open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are expecting 4Q revenue results to be better than consensus driven by strong growth in mobile phones, household appliances and digital. For 1Q16, we believe consensus expectation for JD’s revenue seems high. However, we do believe the company is steadily executing its strategy toward high growth and profitability. We maintain our Buy rating and PT of $39.00.……

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  • WUBA: Data Suggest  4Q15 Results May Be Better Than Consensus; 1Q16 Guidance May Be In Line
    WUBA2016-02-26

    WUBA: Data Suggest 4Q15 Results May Be Better Than Consensus; 1Q16 Guidance May Be In Line

    WUBA will report 4Q15 results on Friday, February 26 before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Our proprietary data suggest that WUBA is likely to report 4Q15 results better than the Street expectation due to the increase in activity in Yellow Page, used car and secondary housing. For 1Q16, we believe WUBA is likely to guide revenue at least in line with consensus. Longer term-wise, we remain positive on the stock as WUBA is a monopoly in marketing services serving individuals and small & micro businesses, an industry that has high entry barriers. We also believe that we may see margin improvement in 2016 as expenses could be pared back versus 2015.……

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  • WB: Unsettled Budgeting Process from BABA May Lead to Weaker 1Q16 Guidance, but May Not Affect Full Year Revenue; Maintain Buy Rating
    WB2016-02-25

    WB: Unsettled Budgeting Process from BABA May Lead to Weaker 1Q16 Guidance, but May Not Affect Full Year Revenue; Maintain Buy Rating

    Weibo will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, March 2nd after the market closes followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting Weibo to report at lease in line and highly likely better 4Q15 revenue due to continuing execution of its monetization strategies. For 1Q16, as the company is still in talks with Alibaba regarding the full year 2016 budget and the budgeting process has not yet been completed, we believe guidance may be softer than consensus expectation. However, we do believe Weibo is a major platform that generates significant traffic for Alibaba and the budget will eventually get settled. Therefore, we are positive for its full year outlook and maintain our BUY rating on the stock.……

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  • VIPS: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Results; Inline 1Q16 Guidance
    VIPS2016-02-24

    VIPS: Data Suggest Better 4Q15 Results; Inline 1Q16 Guidance

    VIPS will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, February 25th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are expecting VIPS to report 4Q15 revenue better than consensus due to the growth in its SKU-days and better sold-out rate. However, for 1Q16, we don’t expect the company to provide guidance higher than current consensus at 43% Y/Y revenue growth as the company is getting mature. ……

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  • BIDU: Expect 4Q15 Results To Be At Least In Line; 2016 Full Year Consensus Is Low; Maintain BUY Rating
    BIDU2016-02-23

    BIDU: Expect 4Q15 Results To Be At Least In Line; 2016 Full Year Consensus Is Low; Maintain BUY Rating

    BIDU will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, February 25 after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We do not have anything special to say about BIDU’s 4Q15, and we are expecting 4Q15 results to be at least in line but highly likely to be better than consensus expectation. However, we do believe the current consensus for 2016 revenue growth at 24.5% Y/Y is too low as BIDU’s subsidiaries including Nuomi and food delivery are likely to drive higher growth. This high growth can be the result of BIDU’s strong intention to list these subsidiaries in the local market. In order to have a better valuation, BIDU is pushing for more market share gains. We maintain our Buy rating. ……

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  • SFUN: Coming Out of Investment Phase in the Secondary Housing Business, Expecting Transactions to Pick Up; Maintain BUY
    SFUN2016-02-22

    SFUN: Coming Out of Investment Phase in the Secondary Housing Business, Expecting Transactions to Pick Up; Maintain BUY

    SFUN will report 4Q15 results on Thursday, February 25th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We expect SFUN’s 4Q15 results to be better than its own guidance at about 20% Y/Y growth, implying 4Q15 revenue to be at $260M. The consensus revenue expectation is too high, which we believe was due to the lack of updates in analysts’ models. As China enters into 2016, we believe secondary housing is an area that can experience rapid growth as the government intends to push for digestion of housing inventories. As such, SFUN can be a beneficiary. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock and price target of $9.00. ……

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  • NTES: 4Q15 Results May Be Driven by Mobile Games Upside; Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target
    NTES2016-02-22

    NTES: 4Q15 Results May Be Driven by Mobile Games Upside; Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target

    NTES will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, February 24th after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. NTES is highly likely to deliver 4Q15 results better than consensus expectation of net revenue at $1,152.9M (107% Y/Y growth) driven by robust mobile games growth as well as mobile advertising growth. We believe that NTES can continue its strong growth momentum in mobile games because of its strong content development capability, which has an advantage over any distribution platform. We maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to $168.00.……

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  • CYOU: 4Q15 Results May Be In Line; Guidance for 1Q16 May Be Below; No New Drivers for Growth; Maintain Hold
    CYOU2016-01-27

    CYOU: 4Q15 Results May Be In Line; Guidance for 1Q16 May Be Below; No New Drivers for Growth; Maintain Hold

    CYOU will report 4Q15 results on Monday, February 1st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. In the near term, we don’t see any excitement in its game pipeline and results may lack upside. As such, we expect 4Q15 results to be at most in line with consensus. We believe that the company is going through another hurdle as it struggles to find a sustainable long term growth driver. While CYOU appeared to find some significant momentum in its mobile games in late 2014 and early 2015, the momentum has passed. We believe CYOU may continue to stagnate as it refines its game development. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.……

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  • SOHU: 4Q15 Results May Be In Line; Guidance for 1Q16 May Be Below; Maintain Hold Rating
    SOHU2016-01-27

    SOHU: 4Q15 Results May Be In Line; Guidance for 1Q16 May Be Below; Maintain Hold Rating

    SOHU will report 4Q15 results on Monday, February 1st before the markets open with an 8:30am ET conference call. For the quarter, we do not see any upside drivers and expect results to be in line with consensus as both the game business and advertising/video need growth drivers. Also, we believe consensus for 1Q16 is high and SOHU may not be able to accomplish that. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock.……

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  • BABA: Expect FY3Q16 Results to be Better than Consensus Due to the Execution of Its New Strategy; Maintain Buy
    BABA2016-01-25

    BABA: Expect FY3Q16 Results to be Better than Consensus Due to the Execution of Its New Strategy; Maintain Buy

    BABA will report FY3Q16 results on Thursday, January 28th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. The company has been working on its new strategy to improve the quality and GMV of its Tmall platform, clean up Taobao while increasing its monetization. We believe the strategy can show good results in this quarter. Based on our proprietary data, we believe that BABA is likely to report FY3Q16 results better than consensus expectation at 27% Y/Y growth driven by better monetization for its Taobao and better GMV growth from Tmall. We maintain our Buy rating and price target.……

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  • XRS: Strong Growth in Courses Offered and Enrollments Drive Upside in FY3Q16; Maintain BUY and Lower PT to $48.00 from $54.00
    XRS2016-01-19

    XRS: Strong Growth in Courses Offered and Enrollments Drive Upside in FY3Q16; Maintain BUY and Lower PT to $48.00 from $54.00

    XRS will report FY3Q16 results before the market opens on Wednesday, January 27, 2016 with an 8:00AM EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we believe the company is likely to deliver FY3Q16 revenue better than the consensus expectation driven by strong growth in total course offered and course attendees offset by the decline in ASP. Also, we believe the bottom line may also better than consensus due to better topline growth. We remain positive on the revenue outlook of XRS. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating but lower our PT to $48.00. ……

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  • EDU: Expect Better FY2Q16, Upside Driven by Higher Enrollments and ASP; Maintain Buy & Raise PT
    EDU2016-01-15

    EDU: Expect Better FY2Q16, Upside Driven by Higher Enrollments and ASP; Maintain Buy & Raise PT

    EDU will report FY2Q16 results on Tuesday, January 19th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we expect EDU to report FY2Q16 revenue better than consensus driven by higher average spending per attendee and better course utilization rate. For the bottom line, we believe better utilization as well as less expansion can be positive to its margin. As EDU is making meaningful improvements in its K-12 course offerings and enrollments combined with its internet initiatives, we believe the growth can be sustained for the next couple of years. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target price to $34.00 from $29.00.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) – 4Q15 & Dec. 2015: Relative Better Growth in the Number of SKU Days in 4Q15
    VIPS2016-01-12

    T. H. Data Flash – Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) – 4Q15 & Dec. 2015: Relative Better Growth in the Number of SKU Days in 4Q15

    October 1 – December 31, 2015 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Please contact us for detailed information.•Relative better growth in the number of SKU days and sold-out SKU days in 4Q15 – When VIPS shortened the duration of each of its sales events from 5 days to 3 days, the duration of the days of SKU display became a variable. Therefore, we introduced a new set of metrics - SKU days and sold-out SKU days to reflect such change. According to our proprietary data, the # of SKU days is likely to increase 59.5% Y/Y (12.0% Q/Q) in 4Q15 and the # of sold-out SKU days increased 83.1% Y/Y (Figure 1). We believe such growth is likely to lead to VIPS’ 4Q15 revenue to be at the higher end of it……

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