Research Reports

In 4Q17, bundled sales for CTRP’s air business dragged down the momentum of the company’s business. The business recovered a bit in 1Q18. However, new issues came out: customers complained about the fees attached to canceling and changing tickets. ……

In the traditional ecommerce world, JD is facing a couple of issues: 1) China ecommerce is reaching its maturity as new user growth has slowed down and heading towards flattish growth on a year to year basis. The newly merged vendor, Pinduoduo, has attracted non-traditional ecommerce users (Figure 1).……

Based on our data and calculations, we believe TAL’s FY1Q19 is likely to be better than consensus expectation on the topline, driven by rapid growth in higher priced courses as well as their utilization rates. We believe its FY1Q19 revenue is likely to be around $530.0M, vs. consensus at $514.62M and the company’s guidance at $508.6M to $515.0M. ……

The growth of YY Live’s host and active users is still under pressure, while HUYA (HUYA, $40.00 - Intraday, Not Rated) is growing strongly. Based on our data and model, we believe YY’s revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB3.669B. HUYA’s growth is mainly driven by user growth, while YY Live is mainly driven by ARPU. ……

The faster expansion as well as higher ramping pace led to high growth of course offerings and attendee capacity; the high demand led to the improvement of utilization in FY4Q18. Based on our data and calculations, we believe EDU is likely to deliver better results for both the topline and margins in the May 2018 quarter. ……

BITA will report 1Q18 results on June 13th before the markets open with an 8:00am EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe BITA’s 1Q18 revenue is likely to be better than consensus and 2Q18 guidance is likely to be at least inline with consensus. ……

YY will report 1Q18 results on June 5th after the market closes followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are positive on Huya and cautious on YY Live into earnings. While YY Group continued its high growth, YY Live showed some level of slowdown in terms of active user growth, and the growth of the Group’s users was mainly driven by Huya. ……

Ctrip will report 1Q18 results on May 22nd after the market closes followed by an 8pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we expect CTRP’s 1Q18 revenue to be around RMB6,804M (11.8% Y/Y), better than consensus at RMB6,667M (+9.6% Y/Y) and tops the higher end of its revenue guidance range of RMB6,623.7M - RMB6,754.4M (9% - 11% Y/Y) as well as our model at RMB6,653M. ……

WUBA will report 1Q18 results on May 24th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, we believe WUBA’s 1Q18 revenue is likely to reach RMB2,570M, representing 29.3% Y/Y growth, better than consensus at RMB2,357M and the company’s guidance at RMB2,290M - RMB2,390M as well as our model at RMB2,370M.……

CMCM will report 1Q18 results on May 21st before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, we believe CMCM is likely to deliver 1Q18 top line at around RMB1,139M, lower than consensus at RMB1,142.87M and toward the lower end of its guidance range of RMB1,100M – RMB1,140M, as the main revenue contributor Utility products continued its declining trend and Live.me was also experiencing some stagnation. ……

As an operator for international brands on Tmall.com, BZUN has been enjoying the rapid growth in international brands on Tmall’s platform. The company will report 1Q18 results on May 17th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. ……

HTHT will report 1Q18 results on Monday, May 14th after the market close followed by a 9pm ET conference call. Based on the data released by the company, HTHT’s revenue is likely to be RMB2,072.2M, higher than the Street expectation at RMB1,996.8M. For 2Q18, we also expect guidance to be better than consensus at RMB2,431.3M. ……

VIPS will report 1Q18 results on Monday, May 14th after the markets close followed by a conference call the next day at 8am EST. Based on our data, we believe VIPS’ revenue in 1Q18 is likely to be around RMB20,334.3M or 27.5% Y/Y growth, slightly better than consensus at RMB19,543.9M (22.5% Y/Y growth) and above the high end of guidance range at RMB19.1B – 19.9B (20% - 25% Y/Y growth).  ……

NTES will report 1Q18 results on May 16th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, NTES’s 1Q18 revenue is likely to be in line with consensus expectation at RMB13,839M.……

ZTO will report 1Q18 results on May 9th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, ZTO’s revenue is likely to be RMB 3,419.6M or 30.8% Y/Y growth vs. consensus at RMB3,392.2M or 29.7% Y/Y growth. ……

WB will report 1Q18 results on May 9th before the market opens with a 7am EST conference call. Based on our data, WB’s 1Q18 revenue is likely to be around $349.8M, better than consensus expectation at $342.4M. For 2Q18, we believe WB may provide revenue guidance at least in line with consensus at $417.1M.……

JD will report 1Q18 results on May 8th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. For 1Q18, based on our proprietary data, we believe JD’s topline growth at about 31% Y/Y is likely to be in line with consensus expectation as well as our estimates. ……

ATHM will report 1Q18 results on May 8th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Ever since ATHM refocused on its core business and renewed its strategy to enable its partners to do business better, its core business has grown rapidly and taken market share away from its peers. In 1Q18, this trend continued and showed healthy growth in both media services and leads generation services. ……