Research Reports

BIDU will report 3Q18 results on Tuesday, October 30th after the markets close followed by a 9:15pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we believe BIDU is likely to report 3Q18 net revenue at ~RMB27.863B (excluding Global DU and Du Xiaoman), coming in towards the higher-end of the company’s guidance range of RMB26.56B - RMB27.92B and higher than our model at RMB26.810B. ……

TAL will report FY2Q19 earnings on Thursday, October 25thbefore the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive forits FY2Q19 as our data show that revenue is likely to be better than the Streetexpectation. However, there are some uncertainties that are caused by thegovernment. During 2018, about 4 different policies and regulations came out inthe off-school education area. ……

EDU will report FY1Q19 results on Tuesday, October 23rd before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We believe EDU’s FY1Q19 revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at $841.3M. Although we are positive for its FY1Q19, there are some issues with FY2Q19, as EDU is experiencing issues related to new government policies. ……

China’s economy showed slower pace of growth, particularly in the consumer area, which triggered the central government to release a policy that aims to promote internal consumption. On the one hand, BZUN continues to gain new brand partners, and on the other hand, we believe it is starting to feel such slower pace. ……

We expect TAL to have positive performance in the quarter, but we see continued uncertainty from government policies and regulations. In 2018, the government issued multiple new regulations and policies in the non-public education area and we cannot rule out the possibility of no more potential policies/regulations to follow.……

iQIYI added more in-house produced content, which we believe is a driver for its paying members.  iQIYI had the highest number of in-house produced content and associated video views among its peers. In addition, it also had the highest number of actively viewed content titles and newly added content. ……

We are positive into 3Q18, as BILI sped up its efforts in live streaming and advertising, while its game business continued to be stable. Based on our data and model, we believe the company’s revenue is likely to reach RMB1,106.2M in 3Q18, better than consensus at RMB1,022.51M, and higher than the high-end of its guidance range of RMB1,000M – RMB1,040M.  ……

In recent quarters, Huya has been making more contribution to YY’s growth than YY live. The growth of YY Live is mainly driven by ARPU with flat growth in active users, while Huya was mainly driven by user growth. Based on our data and model, we believe Huya’s revenue is likely to reach RMB1,229.2M in 3Q18E (110.6% Y/Y  growth vs. 125% Y/Y growth in 2Q18), topping the high end of the guidance range of RMB1,190M – RMB1,220M, and is likely to be largely in line with consensus at RMB1,233.0M.……

We are seeing positive results during the first two months of 3Q18 driven by multiple sources of revenue: 1) monthly events were positive to MOMO’s monetization; 2) Tantan introduced new fee schedules to target different needs among users; and 3) the TV show that MOMO sponsored will contribute to some revenue in 3Q18. We maintain our Buy rating. ……

CTRP will report 2Q18 results on September 5th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. CTRP’s business saw recovery in 1Q18 following the disruption in bundled sales for its air segment in 4Q17. ……

BILI will report 2Q18 results on August 27th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and model, we believe the company’s 2Q18 revenue is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB1,021.6M, and tops the high end of its guidance range of RMB970M – RMB1,000M. ……

BITA will report 2Q18 results on August 22nd before the markets open with an 8:15am EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe BITA’s 2Q18 revenue is likely to come in at least in-line with consensus at RMB2,514.3M. ……

BABA will report FY1Q19 results on August 23rd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. BABA in the past years has given birth to Taobao, Tmall, Ant Finance, and now it is building up Cloud, Cainiao, Youku, ele.me and Hema. BABA is building long lasting assets one on top of another and all of them are centered on commerce and resolve issues in the value chain of commerce. We do believe BABA is likely to be bigger and stronger in the long run. ……

HTHT will report 2Q18 results on August 22nd after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. The company continues to enjoy growth driven by hotel volume as well as ADR growth, while the occupancy rate remains steady at a high level. Based on the data released by the company, we believe HTHT’s total revenue is likely to grow 26.7% Y/Y to reach RMB2,521.1M in 2Q18, better than topline consensus at RMB2,486.5M (25.0% Y/Y growth). We maintain our BUY rating.……

MOMO will report 2Q18 results on August 22nd before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, we believe MOMO’s revenue is likely to be better than consensus at $480.6M, and tops the high end of its guidance range of $470M – $485M despite the change in the current exchange rate. MOMO’s live broadcasting revenue is likely to be around $420.7M in 2Q18. ……

WUBA will report 2Q18 results on August 16th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are cautious on WUBA’s 2H 2018 as it is more a macro play. On the macro front, the deleveraging movement is impacting housing and job areas. On housing front, the government has clearly indicated its policy, which is controlling price and transaction volume. On the job front, as major shareholders for many enterprises are facing pressure to repay debts, this puts them in contraction mode instead of expanding.  ……

While major ecommerce vendors such as BABA (BABA, $177.19, Buy) and JD (JD, $36.02, Buy) are, one way or another, under pressure from Pinduoduo (PDD, $20.00, Not Rated), BZUN is still taking advantage of Tmall’s past expansion into top international brands. As one of the top tier ecommerce operators on Tmall’s platform, BZUN continues to add new brands, new products as well as services to its clients. ……

ZTO will report 2Q18 results on August 8th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, we believe ZTO is likely to deliver better parcel volume than the Street expectation and the high end of its guidance at 38% Y/Y growth. ……