Research Reports

T. H. Data Flash – China’s Mobile Weibo and News Market - January 2014Sina Dominates Weibo; Portal Vendors Lead the Mobile News Market January 2014 Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Sina dominates Weibo apps market with 83% of market share measured with cumulative downloads. We believe it’s clearer that Sina Weibo has become one of the most important mass media channels for news distribution and acquisition. According our proprietary data and measured by the total accumulated number of app downloads, Sina leads this market with 83% market share, followed by Tencent with 16%. Other Weibo providers have almost disappeared from this part of the market (Figure 1).·  Portal vendors lead th……

T. H. Data Flash – Mobile Apps Market in China: Auto & Transportation Services - January 2014Leaders Have Emerged in Each Mobile Auto&Transit Service Areas January 2014 Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  New car information and marketing sector: Vertical internet vendors lead in mobile downloads with 77.8% shares – The internet automobile information and marketing services vendors can be classified into verticals and portals. Autohome (ATHM, $37.53, NR) and BitAuto (BITA, $36.37, NR) are typical vertical websites that provide marketing and information services for auto industry, including automobile price, dealer information and user comments. Sina Auto (SINA, BUY) and Sohu Auto (SO……

T. H. Data Flash – China’s Mobile Browser Market, January 2014UCWeb, Tencent and Qihoo Lead the Mobile Browser Market    January 2014 Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Mobile browser market is highly concentrated, where the top 3 vendors take ~81% of the download market share - According to our proprietary data, China's mobile browser market is highly concentrated, where the top 3 vendors accounted for 81.9% of the total market share measured by the number of downloads by 01/14/2014. UCWeb is ahead of its peers with 47.7% download market share vs. Tencent at 24.5% and Qihoo at 9.3% (Figure 1 & Figure 2). ·  92% of total downloads came from top 5 popular apps – Accord……

T. H. Data Flash – Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Travel, December 2013A Market Led By Qunar and Ctrip   December 2013 Data Highlights:·  Mobile travel booking market is fragmented – The leading mobile travel sectors include travel booking (including air tickets, hotels, attractions and car rental), train, public transit (including bus and subway), travel guide (including guide, review, flight information, community and translation) and others (taxi) (Figure 2). Mobile travel booking is the leading sector, where Qunar, Ctrip, China Telecom and Huo Li Tian Hui (活力天汇) are taking the leads. According to our proprietary data, Qunar takes about 23.5% and Ctrip about 19.5% of the market share, as of 12/29/2013 based on the number of cumulative app downloads (Figure 1, 3 & 4).·……

T. H. Data Flash – Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Gaming of Lottery, December 2013Mobile Landscape is Significantly Different from PC  December 2013 Data Highlights:·  Vertical vendors lead the mobile lottery gaming market with 85.8% of total app downloads –The lottery gaming business on the PC side is operated more evenly by vertical vendors, such as Shiji Guocai (世纪国彩), Zhongwangcai (中网彩) and portal/directory websites such as Tencent (700.HK, NR) and Qihoo (QIHU, BUY). However, on the mobile side, the market is different, as vertical vendors are the dominant players.  Measured by the number of downloads of lottery gaming mobile APPs, 85.8% of total downloads come from vertical vendors, and the rest of the 14.2% comes from portal/directory websites (Figure 1). The top ……

T. H. Data Flash – China Online Video Monthly, December 2013Increase in Mobile; Intensifying Battle Over Exclusive Variety Shows in 2014  October 1 – December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Increasing mobile app downloads and UGC – By 12/25/2013, total downloads of the major online video vendors could increase steadily. iQiyi+PPS could have the most mobile downloads at  755M, followed by Youku Tudou at 583M, PPTV at 267M, Sohu video at 228M and Tencent at 62M (Figure 1). ·  Youku Tudou relies less on licensed content – By 12/25/2013, out of the top 50 variety shows on each vendor’s platform, Youku could have 26 in-house professional generated titles……

T. H. Data Flash – Youku Tudou (YOKU) – December 2013    Continuing Increase in Mobile Downloads; Slight Decrease in Primary Content Releases October 1 – December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Increase in average number of actively viewed content titles - During the period of 10/01/2013-12/25/2013, the average number of actively viewed content in YOKU’s content library could be 24,114, up from 22,791 in 3Q13 (Figure 1). The increase could mainly come from 497 new movie titles, followed by 230 new TV drama titles, 364 new variety show titles and 232 new cartoon titles (Figure 1). ·  Average daily view times per hit content could decrease slightly – The ……

T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – December 2013    Outbound Travel Likely to Heat Up During Spring Festival; On-Time Flight Departure Rate Improved INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS:In November, the number of aircraft movements in China was likely to decline 0.6% M/M based on our proprietary data (Figure 1). Looking into the future, the outbound travel demand during the upcoming Spring Festival could benefit airports with meaningful international business such as Beijing Capital International Airport in 1Q14; the on-time flight departures campaign, which was started by regulatory authorities and already made some progress, could improve travelers’ experience, thus benefitting the long-term development of the civil aviation industry. ·  Number of air passengers to i……

T. H. Data Flash – NetEase, Inc. – December 2013    Slightly Weaker Performance of FWWJ While Other Games Could Be Stronger October 1 – December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Popularity level of MMO games could decrease to an average of 1.16M or 9.0% Q/Q during the period of 10/01/203-12/25/2013 from 1.32M in 3Q13 (Figure 1). Among the major games, World of Warcraft (WOW) could decrease 5.7% Q/Q and Fantasy Westward Journey (FWWJ) could decrease 12.5% Q/Q, while Wuhun could increase 19.4% Q/Q.  ·  Number of servers of major MMO games could increase slightly – During the period of 10/01/203-12/25/2013, average servers in usage could have a net incr……

T. H. Data Flash – Changyou.com Ltd. – December 2013    Challenges in Old MMO Games and Web Games October 1, 2013 - December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Popularity level of CYOU’s MMO games could experience a decline of about 5.7% Q/Q (Figure 1), possibly driven by the weakness in TLBB (Tian Long Ba Bu).  ·  Slightly up in the number of servers of MMO games – By 12/25/2013, there could be 21 new servers added for TLBB and DMD, which led to 875 total servers by 12/25/2013 vs. 854 at the end of September 2013. Average servers could be 867 in this period vs. 851 in 3Q13, or a 1.9% Q/Q increase (Figure 2). Of that, there could be 12 net increase of ……

T. H. Data Flash – Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) – December 2013    Lowered Search Market Share; Strong Activities in BIDU’s App Store and Mobile Product Adoption October - December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Slight decrease in search query market share of BIDU's search engine – BIDU’s search market share as measured by page views (PV) may be lowered to 61.9% by December 25, 2013 from 64.6% at the end of September 2013, compared with Qihoo (QIHU, Buy) at 23.1% by December 25, 2013 and 20.5% at the end of September 2013 (Figure 1).  ·  Strong activities in BIDU’s mobile app store including 91 Wireless - By December 25, 2013, the cumulative number of ap……

T. H. Data Flash – Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) – December 2013    Strong Momentum Continuing in QIHU’s Search and Mobile October 1 to December 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Increasing market share of QIHU's search engine – As measured by pageviews, QIHU’s market share could be at 23.1% by December 25, 2013, up from 20.5% at the end of September 2013 (Figure 1). Since QIHU’s search gets its traffic mostly from its browser, we expect the market share of Qihoo's search market share to continue to go up to the level in line with the market share of browser at about 25% (Figure 2).·  Slightly up in the number of web games and game servers – By Decem……

T. H. Data Flash – Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - December 2013    RevPAR Could Be Weaker for HMIN Organic But Strong for Motel 168 Y/Y in 4Q13October – December 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. ·  Newly added hotels met the full year target – By December 23, 2013, the total number of hotels for HMIN could be 2,171 (including 1,785 Home Inns organic, 368 Motel 168 hotels and 18 Yitel Hotels) (Figure 1). Among these hotels, there could be 399 newly opened (including 61 Motel 168 hotels) in 2013, almost completing the company’s full year target of 400. For HMIN organic, about 30.3% of the new hotels opened in 2013 could be located in tier-1 cities and 40.1% in tier-2……

T. H. Data Flash – China Lodging Group (HTHT) – December 20134Q13 RevPAR Could be Flat or Slightly Up Y/Y Due to Weaker Occupancy; New Openings To Surpass Full Year Target  October - December 2013 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  New openings could pass full year target – By December 23, 2013, HTHT’s total number of hotels could be at 1,449 (Figure 1), up from 1,035 at the end of 2012, which means there could be 414 newly opened hotels in FY2013, more than the company’s target of 371-381. In 4Q13, HTHT’s upscale hotels, Manxin and Joya, opened in Lijiang and Wuhan, respectively. Among the total hotel portfolio, there could be 1 Manxin hotel, 1 Joya hotel, 75 Ji Hotels, ……

T. H. CAPITAL, LLCT. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International (CTRP) – December 2013    CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption November - December 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Coverage of mobile-only coupon was stable during December 12th promotion – Taking advantage of the December 12th, 2013 nationwide sales event, CTRP had about 1,930 hotels in 8 of the largest cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Chongqing and Shenzhen), or 16.4% of hotel coverage participated in the mobile-only coupon program vs. Qunar (QUNR, NR) with about 11,200 hotels (or 40%) and eLong (LONG, Hold) with 550 hotels (or 5%). The 16.4% of its mobile-on……

T. H. CAPITAL, LLCT. H. Data Flash – NetEase, Inc. – October 2013    Performance of Games Could Be Flat Over Last Quarter October 1 – November 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Popularity level of MMO games could decrease to an average of 1.33M or 9.0% Q/Q during the period of 10/01/203-11/25/2013 (Figure 1). Among the major games, World of Warcraft (WOW) could decrease 3.7% Q/Q and Fantasy Westward Journey (FWWJ) could decrease 10.6% Q/Q, while Wuhun could increase 32.3% Q/Q.  ·  Number of servers of major MMO games could increase slightly – There could be a net increase of 10 servers for WOW and FWWJ, leading to a total of 781 servers by November 25……

Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY CTRP stock has dropped 17% from $59.19 since its 3Q13 earnings on Nov. 5, which we believe reflects investors’ two concerns: 1) the impact from BIDU’s (Hold) exclusive relationship with Qunar (QUNR, NR); and 2) potential margin pressure from its aggressive mobile promotions. We do not worry about the first issue as BIDU probably accounts for 10% of CTRP’s total traffic, which can be easily compensated by traffic from QUNR and other vendors like Qihoo (QIHU, BUY). For the second concern, we believe it should not be a concern at all since it can actually be a long term positive. We believe the migration to mobile is revolutionizing……

T. H. Data Flash – China Mobile Internet - Mobile Games, November 2013    Emerging Market Far From Being Settled; Ramping Up From Early Stage  November 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Fragmented market with thousands of games – The industry is highly fragmented with thousands of games in each of the major Android stores in China. By 11/25/2013, total number of mobile games in China's major Android markets was about 2.5M, vs. 2.2M at the end of 3Q13 (Figure 1). Among the 18 App Stores, Anzhi had over 40K game apps, followed by Baidu Group at 29.4K and Qihoo at 29.1K (Figure 2).  ·  Total downloads of mobile games – By 11/25/2013, there were over……