Research Reports

  • HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target
    HMIN2014-03-11

    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target

    March 10, 2014T. H. CAPITAL, LLCHome Inns & Hotels Management    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price TargetWe are making downward adjustments to HMIN’s earnings due to weaker than expected revenue growth in 4Q13 and 2014 full year. The weaker growth could come from a weaker than expected recovery in China’s macro economy, a short term impact from H7N9 avian flu and later than expected opening date of Shanghai Disneyland. We believe these negative factors in the external environment are temporary and that long-term increasing demand for travel related products and services in China will continue unchanged. HMIN is well positioned for capturing more franchisees and customers. We maintain our BUY rating but we lower our price t……

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  • QIHU: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139
    QIHU2014-03-10

    QIHU: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014; Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCQihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139 QIHU reported stellar 4Q13 results and provided 1Q14 guidance beating consensus by a wide margin. The upside was primarily driven by strong performance in mobile game operation and accelerating search monetization. We believe the strong momentum in both mobile and search can continue not only because these two businesses are in their early stages, but also because we believe 2014 can be a strong year for both online and mobile marketing.  As such, we reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target to $139 from $123.……

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  • ​Huazhu: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold Rating
    HTHT2014-03-09

    ​Huazhu: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold Rating

    Huazhu Hotels Group Ltd Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold RatingHTHT will report 4Q13 results on Tuesday, March 11, 2014 after the market close followed by 9pm EST conference call. We believe HTHT could report better than expected 4Q13 results based on the company’s preliminary operating results. We also believe HTHT’s 1Q14 guidance will be at least in-line with expectations due to slightly better RevPAR and strong hotel openings since 1Q13. Full year guidance for 2014 could be at most in-line because of HTHT’s shift to more manachised hotels. While the manachised hotels make less contribution to the top line growth, it can make a greater contribution to the company’s bottom line. HTHT is currently trading at a premium to its peers and we believe i……

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  • E-House (China) Holdings Ltd: Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00
    EJ2014-03-09

    E-House (China) Holdings Ltd: Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance; Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00

    E-House (China) Holdings Ltd. Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00EJ will report 4Q13 results before the U.S. markets open on March 11 with 7:30am ET conference call. We believe EJ will report strong 4Q13 results driven primarily by a strong performance in the underlying housing market. Housing prices and transaction volumes have both increased. Specifically, we believe EJ’s ecommerce business will perform better than we expected and the strong momentum in ecommerce can last into 2014.  As such we also expect strong 1Q14 guidance. We maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $18.00. ·Strong e-commerce performance drives strong 4Q13 results – We believe EJ’s business can benefit from a strong performance i……

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  • Dangdang: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold
    DANG2014-03-09

    Dangdang: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold

    E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain HoldWe expect Dangdang to report better than expected 4Q13 results and provide better 1Q14 guidance due to the ongoing execution of its marketplace strategy, favorable taxation changes and a more favorable competitive environment. As such we believe the company will accomplish profitability in 4Q13, sooner than our previous expectation. However, we believe the long-term outlook for its profitability is still uncertain due to dynamic competitive environment. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.  Dangdang (DANG) will report 4Q13 results on Thursday, February 27, 2014 prior to the market open with a 7:00am ET conference call.·Both topline and bottom line ……

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  • Youku: Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption
    YOKU2014-03-09

    Youku: Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption

    Youku Tudou Inc. Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption; Adjusting Revenue Allocation in 2014; Maintain Buy YOKU will report 4Q13 results after the U.S. market closes on February 27, 2014 with a conference call at 8:00pm ET. Based on our proprietary data, we believe YOKU is likely to deliver better 1Q14 results than consensus expectations. The better results will likely be driven by an increase in the total views of its licensed and in-house professional generated content (PGC). We remain optimistic about YOKU’s prospects in 2014, although we believe the company’s 1Q14 guidance could be weak due to reasons associated with advertising seasonality. As a result, we will make a downward adjustment to our 1Q14 projection, while we make an upwa……

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  • LONG: Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains
    LONG2014-03-09

    LONG: Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains

    eLong Inc. Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains; Tough Times Ahead; Maintain HoldIt appears that eLong’s long-time strategy of using price competition to gain market share may no longer work as it had in the past. eLong reported weaker than expected 4Q13 results with revenue largely in-line and the bottom line result below consensus expectation. The company’s 1Q14 top line guidance was also below consensus. Even though progress from mobile and international hotel bookings is encouraging, total hotel booking growth has begun to slow. Meanwhile, the company’s on-going coupon program, as well as competition from Ctrip and other vendors in travel search and group-buy areas is negatively impacting the company’s margins. As a result, we believe the compan……

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  • SINA: Weibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential
    SINA2014-03-09

    SINA: Weibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential

    Sina CorporationWeibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential; Expect Solid 4Q13 Results; Maintain BUY RatingSINA will report 4Q13 results on February 24, 2014 followed by an 8pm ET conference call. We are expecting solid 4Q13 results due to strong advertising and ecommerce seasonality as well as applying a favorable revenue model to Alibaba’s ad links on Weibo. Also, we believe the company is likely to provide its 1Q14 guidance to be at least inline with consensus expectation as the business promotion activities on Weibo from enterprises during the period of the Chinese New Year were aggressive, which we believe could serve as a driver for its 1Q14 growth. We believe the success Sina has had with these promotional events proves the value and earning power of Wei……

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  • QIHU: Strong Upside Momentum from Mobile Game Operation and Search Monetization; Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target To $123
    QIHU2014-03-07

    QIHU: Strong Upside Momentum from Mobile Game Operation and Search Monetization; Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target To $123

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCQihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Strong Upside Momentum from Mobile Game Operation and Search Monetization; Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target To $123QIHU will release its 4Q13 earnings results after the market closes on March 6, 2014 with a 7:30 PM EST conference call. We believe the company is likely to report strong 4Q13 results and provide strong 1Q14 guidance. Upside could come from strong momentum in the company’s mobile game operation and search monetization. We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our price target to $123. ……

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  • DANG: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold
    DANG2014-03-07

    DANG: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCE-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain HoldWe expect Dangdang to report better than expected 4Q13 results and provide better 1Q14 guidance due to the ongoing execution of its marketplace strategy, favorable taxation changes and a more favorable competitive environment. As such we believe the company will accomplish profitability in 4Q13, sooner than our previous expectation. However, we believe the long-term outlook for its profitability is still uncertain due to dynamic competitive environment. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.  Dangdang (DANG) will report 4Q13 results on Thursday, February 27, 2014 prior to the market open with a 7:00am ET conference call.……

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  • BIDU: Increase in ASP and Mobile Games Driving 4Q13 Strength; Maintain Hold Rating
    BIDU2014-03-07

    BIDU: Increase in ASP and Mobile Games Driving 4Q13 Strength; Maintain Hold Rating

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCBaidu, Inc.  Increase in ASP and Mobile Games Driving 4Q13 Strength; Maintain Hold RatingBIDU will report 4Q13 results on Feb. 27 after the market close followed by an 8:00pm ET conference call. We are expecting a solid 4Q13 result with both the top and bottom lines coming in better than consensus expectations, which appear to be conservative. For 1Q14, we believe BIDU is likely to raise guidance above an overly conservative street estimate at 6.9% Q/Q decline. The possible better 4Q13 results and 1Q14 guidance could be driven by better performance in the PC search business as well as mobile game operations. While the business is enjoying strong momentum, we believe most of the positives have been priced in and the stock is trading at 26.8 PE multiples to our EPS 201……

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  • YOKU: Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption; Adjusting Revenue Allocation in 2014; Maintain Buy
    YOKU2014-03-07

    YOKU: Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption; Adjusting Revenue Allocation in 2014; Maintain Buy

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCYouku Tudou Inc. Expect Profitability in 4Q13 Driven by Strong Momentum In In-house PGC and Mobile Adoption; Adjusting Revenue Allocation in 2014; Maintain Buy YOKU will report 4Q13 results after the U.S. market closes on February 27, 2014 with a conference call at 8:00pm ET. Based on our proprietary data, we believe YOKU is likely to deliver better 1Q14 results than consensus expectations. The better results will likely be driven by an increase in the total views of its licensed and in-house professional generated content (PGC). We remain optimistic about YOKU’s prospects in 2014, although we believe the company’s 1Q14 guidance could be weak due to reasons associated with advertising seasonality. As a result, we will make a downward adjustment to our 1Q14 projection, whi……

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  • LONG: Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains; Tough Times Ahead; Maintain Hold
    LONG2014-03-07

    LONG: Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains; Tough Times Ahead; Maintain Hold

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCeLong Inc. Pricing Strategy May Not Be Able to Prevent a Slow Down in Market Share Gains; Tough Times Ahead; Maintain HoldIt appears that eLong’s long-time strategy of using price competition to gain market share may no longer work as it had in the past. eLong reported weaker than expected 4Q13 results with revenue largely in-line and the bottom line result below consensus expectation. The company’s 1Q14 top line guidance was also below consensus. Even though progress from mobile and international hotel bookings is encouraging, total hotel booking growth has begun to slow. Meanwhile, the company’s on-going coupon program, as well as competition from Ctrip and other vendors in travel search and group-buy areas is negatively impacting the company’s margins. As a result, we ……

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  • SINA: Weibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential; Expect Solid 4Q13 Results; Maintain BUY Rating
    SINA2014-03-07

    SINA: Weibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential; Expect Solid 4Q13 Results; Maintain BUY Rating

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCSina CorporationWeibo’s Strong Social Media Function Dictates Its Monetization Potential; Expect Solid 4Q13 Results; Maintain BUY RatingSINA will report 4Q13 results on February 24, 2014 followed by an 8pm ET conference call. We are expecting solid 4Q13 results due to strong advertising and ecommerce seasonality as well as applying a favorable revenue model to Alibaba’s ad links on Weibo. Also, we believe the company is likely to provide its 1Q14 guidance to be at least inline with consensus expectation as the business promotion activities on Weibo from enterprises during the period of the Chinese New Year were aggressive, which we believe could serve as a driver for its 1Q14 growth. We believe the success Sina has had with these promotional events proves the value and ea……

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  • CTRP2014-02-19

    CTRP: Healthy Volume Growth in 4Q13

    T. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International (CTRP) – January 2014    Healthy Volume Growth in 4Q13December 2013 - January 2014 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Coverage of hotel coupon on mobile was slightly larger in January 2014 – In the first 39 days of 2014 in sample cities, the percentage of hotels that participated in mobile-only coupon programs was about 18.2% vs. 16.4% on December 12th, 2013 and 16% on November 26th, 2013. (Figure 1)·  Amount and scale of air-ticket cash rebate could shrink during Chinese New Year but increase afterwards – Out of the first 39 days in 2014 for sample routes, the amount of the average daily cash rebate could be 6.7% of the av……

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  • Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN):  RevPAR Could Decline Y/Y in January Due to High Comp Base
    HMIN2014-02-19

    Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN): RevPAR Could Decline Y/Y in January Due to High Comp Base

    T. H. Data Flash – Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - January 2014    RevPAR Could Decline Y/Y in January Due to High Comp Base  December 2013 - January 2014 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. ·  Total number of hotels and newly added hotels – By January 24, 2014, the total hotel number for HMIN is likely to reach about 2,205 (including 374 Motel 168 hotels, 1,813 Home Inn hotels and 18 Yitel hotels) (Figure 1). Among these hotels, about 34 were added in January 2014. For Home Inn, about 18.6% of the hotels were located in 1st tier cities and 35.9% in tier 2 cities. For Motel 168 the percentage is likely to be 34.0% and 35.0%, respectively.·  RevPAR is likely to dec……

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  • YOKU2014-02-19

    China Online Video Monthly, January 2014

    T. H. Data Flash – China Online Video Monthly, January 2014YOKU Led  in Content Library and in In-house Professional Generated Content ; Tencent and Baidu Gained Momentum in the Area of Exclusive Content  January 1 – January 25, 2014 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Youku/Tudou led the actively viewed content titles – During the period of 01/01/2014-01/25/2014, Youku/Tudou could find itself in the lead market position in terms of actively viewed titles. The combined company results could generate 20.8K and 15.6K actively viewed titles on Youku's and Tudou's platform, respectively. This amount of views could put Yoku/Tudou ahead of its peers: ,PPTV at 14K, P……

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  • HTHT2014-02-19

    China Lodging Group (HTHT):HTHT RevPAR Could Be Flat Y/Y with a Weaker Occupancy Rate but Better Average Daily Rate

    T. H. Data Flash – China Lodging Group (HTHT) – January 2014HTHT RevPAR Could Be Flat Y/Y with a Weaker Occupancy Rate but Better Average Daily RateDecember 2013- January 2014 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report was extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  New openings could be strong in January – By January 24, 2014, HTHT’s total hotel number could be 1,506, an increase of 57 from 1,449 at the end of December 2013 (Figure 1). Among its total hotel portfolio, there could be 1 Manxin hotel, 1 Joya hotel, 75 Ji Hotels, 1,306 Hanting Hotels, 88 Hi Inns and 35 Starway Hotels. By January 24, 2014, the number of hotels in 1st tier cities and 2nd tier cities, as a percentage of total hotels, could be 22.3% and 36.6%, respectively. ……

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  • China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – January 2014
    CTRPLONGQUNR2014-02-19

    China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – January 2014

    T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – January 2014    Air Travel Boom Due to Earlier Spring Festival; More Airlines and Airports Are Approved to Meet Future Travel Demand INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTSIn January, the number of aircraft movements in China is likely to grow 8.6% M/M based on our proprietary data (Figure 1). Much of the growth can be attributed to Spring Festival, which occurred earlier in the year and is traditionally one of the busiest travel holidays in China each year.  ·  Holiday travel in January is likely to be better than expected – Spring Festival, or Chinese New Year, is the most important traditional holiday in China. For air transportation, the civil aviation authorities forecast that more than 14,000 flights will carry more than 1.2 m……

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  • 2014-02-19

    Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Reading – Jan. 2014

    China T. H. Data Flash - Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Reading – Jan. 2014A Fragmented Market Where Zhangyue Takes the Lead, Followed by Tencent and Baidu January 2014 Data Highlights:·  Mobile reading market is fragmented – The top 5 vendors account for only 46% of the total market measured by the number of downloads. According to our proprietary data, as of 1/13/2014, the market is led by Zhangyue.com (Beijing Palm Reading Technology) with 17.8% of all downloads, followed by Tencent, Shuqi.com and Baidu (Figure 1 & 3). Major mobile reading sectors include the e-book, audio book and comic book sectors (Figure 2). Among these sectors, mobile e-book is the leading sector making up 83% of all downloads.·  Mobile e-book market is led by Zhangyue.com – Zhangyue.com has 2 po……

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