Research Reports

  • YY: Different Types of Live Shows to Drive Conversion and ARPU; New User Growth is Key to Future Growth; Maintain Hold
    YY2014-08-13

    YY: Different Types of Live Shows to Drive Conversion and ARPU; New User Growth is Key to Future Growth; Maintain Hold

    YY Inc. Different Types of Live Shows to Drive Conversion and ARPU; New User Growth is Key to Future Growth; Maintain Hold  YY reported stellar 2Q14 results and provided 3Q14 guidance above consensus by a wide margin, which was primarily driven by the strong growth in different types of live show business including music, game broadcastings and dating shows. We believe YY may continue its efforts toconvert existing users into paying users and increase per user spending in the near term; however, we believe the future upside depends on the growth in users. On this front, we have yet to see meaningful results. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.……

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  • DANG: Expect Better 2Q14 Results and At Least Inline 3Q14 Guidance; Profitability is Likely Sustainable; Upgrade to BUY
    DANG2014-08-13

    DANG: Expect Better 2Q14 Results and At Least Inline 3Q14 Guidance; Profitability is Likely Sustainable; Upgrade to BUY

    E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. Expect Better 2Q14 Results and At Least Inline 3Q14 Guidance; Profitability is Likely Sustainable; Upgrade to BUY  We expect DANG to report better 2Q14 results and provide inline 3Q14 guidance due to the ongoing execution of its marketplace strategy, category management, and a stabilized competitive environment. As such, webelieve DANG’s profitability is likely to be sustainable in the foreseeable quarters. Taking into consideration of the better outlook in both the long and short term, we upgrade DANG from Hold to Buy with a price target of $17.00. DANG will report 2Q14 results on Thursday, August 14, 2014 prior to the market open with a 7:00am ET conference call.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – China Online Recruitment – July 2014: Continued Softness in Job Postings Growth with a Bigger Drop in Manufacturing and Higher Increase in IT
    JOBS2014-08-13

    T. H. Data Flash – China Online Recruitment – July 2014: Continued Softness in Job Postings Growth with a Bigger Drop in Manufacturing and Higher Increase in IT

    T. H. Data Flash – China Online Recruitment – July2014  Continued Softness in Job Postings Growth with a BiggerDrop in Manufacturing and Higher Increase in IT July 2014 Operation Data Highlights:In July of 2014, the number of daily job postings increased 15.1% Y/Y for JOBS (Figure 1) and 13.2% Y/Y for ZPIN (Figure 2), according to our proprietary data. Both of these growth rates were slower than the growth in 2Q14 at 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively.  •JOBS: Increasing penetration into lower tier cities – In July, the Y/Y growth of daily job postings on 51job.com slowed to 15.1% from 18.6% in 2Q14 (Figure 1), while the growth rate of the postings in areas outside of tier 1 and tier 2 cities continued its high growth at 23.2% Y/Y in July (Figure 5). As a result, job postings in those……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – July 2014: Impact From Flight Delays and Cancellations May Be Short-Lived During the Peak Leisure Travel Season
    2014-08-13

    T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – July 2014: Impact From Flight Delays and Cancellations May Be Short-Lived During the Peak Leisure Travel Season

    T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly –July 2014  Impact From Flight Delays and Cancellations May Be Short-Lived During the Peak Leisure Travel Season INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTSThe number of aircraft movements in China is likely to increase 13.4% M/M in July, based on our proprietary data (Figure 1). The M/M increase in July was attributable to more revenue days and more average daily aircraft movements in July as a result of stronger leisure travel demand during the summer vacation. The impact of bad weather and air control in late July is likely to be short-lived and airports might benefit from the expansion of airlines’ fleet capacity.……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – China’s Mobile Browser Market - August 2014: UCWeb, Tencent and Qihoo Lead the Mobile Browser Market

    T. H. Data Flash – China’s Mobile Browser Market - August 2014: UCWeb, Tencent and Qihoo Lead the Mobile Browser Market

    T. H. Data Flash – China’s Mobile Browser Market - August 2014  UCWeb, Tencent and Qihoo Lead the Mobile Browser Market August 2014 Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from 21 Android App Stores in China including  Qihoo, Anzhi,Baidu Group (91 Kuwan, 91 Mobile Assistant, Android market and Baidu appstore), Jifeng, Mu Ma Yi, Youyi, Sohu, Nduo, Netease, Tencent, Pconline, XiaZai Ba, Shou You, Wan Dou Jia, Sina, Huawei, app China and Lenovo, and processed with our proprietary methodology.•Mobile browser market is highly concentrated, where the top 3 vendors take ~82.7% of the download market share - According to ourproprietary data, China's mobile browser market is highly concentrated, where the top 3 vendors accounted for 82.7% of the total market share measured by……

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  • SFUN: Coping With Market Headwinds; Downward Adjustment to Revenue and Earnings; Maintain Buy but Lower PT
    SFUN2014-08-13

    SFUN: Coping With Market Headwinds; Downward Adjustment to Revenue and Earnings; Maintain Buy but Lower PT

    Soufun Holdings Ltd. Coping With Market Headwinds; Downward Adjustment to Revenue and Earnings; Maintain Buy but Lower PT China's real estate market is under pressure with lighter transaction volumes in both primary and secondary properties, which may impact SFUN's growth in the coming quarters. The impact can be significant in listing services. Recently, major offline agencies, the main contributors for SFUN's listing service revenue or about 30% of the total revenue, formed an alliance and forced SFUN to cut down the listing price by about 40%. In addition, the ecommerce business may also slow down due to weakness in the marketplace. As such, we make downward adjustments to our revenue and earnings estimates.However, we believe most of these negatives are already out and SFUN……

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  • YY: Continued Growth of Music Business in 2014; New Business Initiatives Have Yet to Take Off; Maintain Hold
    YY2014-08-13

    YY: Continued Growth of Music Business in 2014; New Business Initiatives Have Yet to Take Off; Maintain Hold

    YY Inc.  Continued Growth of Music Business in 2014; New Business Initiatives Have Yet to Take Off; Maintain Hold YY will report 2Q14 results on Wednesday, August 6, 2014 followed by a conference call at 9:00 pm EST. We believe the company may deliver at least inline or better 2Q14 results and 3Q14 guidance driven mainly by its music business. We believe the newer businesses including online education and mobile social network play a role to drive future business growth, and they have yet to take off. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.……

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  • CTRP: Is There a Choice Except to Invest? Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target
    CTRP2014-08-13

    CTRP: Is There a Choice Except to Invest? Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target

    Ctrip.com International Ltd.  Is There a Choice Except to Invest? Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target In order to maintain its leading position in China’srapidly evolving travel market, we believe CTRP has no other choice but to invest in both branding and products. Otherwise, it would be left behind by themarket. What is worth pointing out is that CTRP has a good track record in the execution of its investments. In the recent past including 2Q14, its investment initiatives all yielded significant improvement in its business. CTRP’s 2Q14 results came in above its own guidance and consensus even though margins were much lower than 2Q13. We believe that as the company is determined to continue its investment for at least the rest of 2014, it is highly likely that we may see better resul……

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  • CTRP: Market Share Expansion Continued in 2Q14; Maintain BUY
    CTRP2014-08-13

    CTRP: Market Share Expansion Continued in 2Q14; Maintain BUY

    Ctrip.com International Ltd.  Market Share Expansion Continued in 2Q14; Maintain BUYWe expect at least inline 2Q14 results and 3Q14 guidance even though there might be some negative impact from fixed commission rate cuts from state owned airlines in 3Q14. The upside in revenue is mainly coming from volume growth in both hotel and air ticket bookings. As the momentum is likely to continue, we maintain our Buy rating but we will revisit our price target after 2Q14 earnings results, which will be released after the market closes on Wednesday, July 30, 2014 with an 8pm EST conference call.  ……

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  • BIDU: Stabilization in Spending May Drive Better Margin in 2Q14; Maintain Hold Rating
    BIDU2014-08-13

    BIDU: Stabilization in Spending May Drive Better Margin in 2Q14; Maintain Hold Rating

    Baidu, Inc.  Stabilization in Spending May Drive Better Margin in2Q14; Maintain Hold Rating  BIDU will report 2Q14 results on July 24th after the market close with a 9pm ET conference call. We expect at least inline 2Q14 revenue results and 3Q14 guidance driven by PC search monetization, mobile business as well as acquired revenues. However, as we believe BIDU did not have additional spending compared to what the Street expected, there is a high possibility that BIDU’s EPS may be better than the Street expectation. We maintain our HOLD rating at this point, but we will revisit the company’s outlook and valuation post earnings.……

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  • XRS: Capacity Expansion Drives Revenue Growth; Small Class Focus Drives Margin Growth; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $31.00
    XRS2014-08-13

    XRS: Capacity Expansion Drives Revenue Growth; Small Class Focus Drives Margin Growth; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $31.00

    Chinese TAL Education Group Capacity Expansion Drives Revenue Growth; Small Class Focus Drives Margin Growth; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $31.00   XRS reported strong FY1Q15 results better than consensusin both revenue and EPS, primarily driven by strong enrollment growth in smallclass. The enrollment growth can continue to go up, as we believe XRS will continue to expand its capacity, which can serve as a driver for enrollments.In addition, we believe its margin has upside potential as the company is focusing more on small class expansions. Putting all this together, we believe the company is adopting a balanced approach toward revenue growth and margin improvement. As such, we maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $31.00 from $29.00.……

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  • EDU: Expect  Inline or Better FY4Q14 Results; Less Visibility May Lead to Weaker FY1Q15 Guidance; Maintain BUY
    EDU2014-08-13

    EDU: Expect Inline or Better FY4Q14 Results; Less Visibility May Lead to Weaker FY1Q15 Guidance; Maintain BUY

    New Oriental Education & TechnologyExpect Inline or Better FY4Q14 Results; Less Visibility May Lead to Weaker FY1Q15 Guidance; Maintain BuyEDU will report FY4Q14 results before the market opens on July 22, 2014 with an 8:00AM EST conference call. We believe the company may deliver FY4Q14 results inline or slightly better than consensus driven mainly by the growth of course price. However, as of FY1Q15, the company may not be able to provide good guidance as the visibility of FY1Q15 enrollment is weak based onour proprietary data, which we believe could be caused by late registration among students. Looking beyond the near term earnings and guidance, we believe in the long run the company is well positioned to capture the high demand of China’s education market; and EDU is likely to res……

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  • T. H. Data Flash – Online Auto Marketing – June 2014: Solid Growth of Dealer Subscription Business; High Rate of Overlap In Dealers and In Regional Allocations
    2014-08-13

    T. H. Data Flash – Online Auto Marketing – June 2014: Solid Growth of Dealer Subscription Business; High Rate of Overlap In Dealers and In Regional Allocations

    T. H. Data Flash – Online Auto Marketing – June 2014Solid Growth of Dealer Subscription Business; High Rate ofOverlap In Dealers and In Regional AllocationsData in this report is extracted from publicly availablesources and processed with our proprietary methodology.Steady growth in total registered dealer bases, high growthin paying dealers for both ATHM and BITA - According to our proprietary data,the number of total unique subscribing dealers of ATHM reached about 14.6K in2Q14 from 12.7 in 1Q14, representing 15% Q/Q growth, while BITA had about 16.7Kunique paying users in 2Q14, reflecting 23% Q/Q growth (Figure 1). The highernumber of paying accounts came from both the increase in the total number ofregistered dealers as well as paying account conversion. Total registereddealers on BITA……

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  • HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target
    HMIN2014-03-11

    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target

    Home Inns & Hotels Management    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price TargetWe are making downward adjustments to HMIN’s earnings due to weaker than expected revenue growth in 4Q13 and 2014 full year. The weaker growth could come from a weaker than expected recovery in China’s macro economy, a short term impact from H7N9 avian flu and later than expected opening date of Shanghai Disneyland. We believe these negative factors in the external environment are temporary and that long-term increasing demand for travel related products and services in China will continue unchanged. HMIN is well positioned for capturing more franchisees and customers. We maintain our BUY rating but we lower our price target to $42 from $50 based on o……

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  • Qihoo: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139
    QIHU2014-03-11

    Qihoo: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014; Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139

    Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139 QIHU reported stellar 4Q13 results and provided 1Q14 guidance beating consensus by a wide margin. The upside was primarily driven by strong performance in mobile game operation and accelerating search monetization. We believe the strong momentum in both mobile and search can continue not only because these two businesses are in their early stages, but also because we believe 2014 can be a strong year for both online and mobile marketing.  As such, we reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target to $139 from $123.·Search monetization to accelerate in later 2014 and 2015 – We believe Qihoo's search monetization is likely ……

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  • HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target
    HMIN2014-03-11

    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price Target

    March 10, 2014T. H. CAPITAL, LLCHome Inns & Hotels Management    HMIN: Adjusting Estimates To Reflect Lower Than Expected Revenue Growth; Lowering Price TargetWe are making downward adjustments to HMIN’s earnings due to weaker than expected revenue growth in 4Q13 and 2014 full year. The weaker growth could come from a weaker than expected recovery in China’s macro economy, a short term impact from H7N9 avian flu and later than expected opening date of Shanghai Disneyland. We believe these negative factors in the external environment are temporary and that long-term increasing demand for travel related products and services in China will continue unchanged. HMIN is well positioned for capturing more franchisees and customers. We maintain our BUY rating but we lower our price t……

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  • QIHU: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139
    QIHU2014-03-10

    QIHU: Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014; Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCQihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Lasting Momentum Fueled By Mobile, Search and Upcoming Inflow from Ad Budgets in 2014;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $139 QIHU reported stellar 4Q13 results and provided 1Q14 guidance beating consensus by a wide margin. The upside was primarily driven by strong performance in mobile game operation and accelerating search monetization. We believe the strong momentum in both mobile and search can continue not only because these two businesses are in their early stages, but also because we believe 2014 can be a strong year for both online and mobile marketing.  As such, we reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target to $139 from $123.……

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  • ​Huazhu: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold Rating
    HTHT2014-03-09

    ​Huazhu: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold Rating

    Huazhu Hotels Group Ltd Expect Better 4Q13 Results and at Least Inline 1Q14 Guidance; Maintain Hold RatingHTHT will report 4Q13 results on Tuesday, March 11, 2014 after the market close followed by 9pm EST conference call. We believe HTHT could report better than expected 4Q13 results based on the company’s preliminary operating results. We also believe HTHT’s 1Q14 guidance will be at least in-line with expectations due to slightly better RevPAR and strong hotel openings since 1Q13. Full year guidance for 2014 could be at most in-line because of HTHT’s shift to more manachised hotels. While the manachised hotels make less contribution to the top line growth, it can make a greater contribution to the company’s bottom line. HTHT is currently trading at a premium to its peers and we believe i……

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  • E-House (China) Holdings Ltd: Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00
    EJ2014-03-09

    E-House (China) Holdings Ltd: Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance; Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00

    E-House (China) Holdings Ltd. Strong E-commerce Drives Better 4Q13 Results and 2014 Guidance;  Maintain Buy and Raise PT to $18.00EJ will report 4Q13 results before the U.S. markets open on March 11 with 7:30am ET conference call. We believe EJ will report strong 4Q13 results driven primarily by a strong performance in the underlying housing market. Housing prices and transaction volumes have both increased. Specifically, we believe EJ’s ecommerce business will perform better than we expected and the strong momentum in ecommerce can last into 2014.  As such we also expect strong 1Q14 guidance. We maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to $18.00. ·Strong e-commerce performance drives strong 4Q13 results – We believe EJ’s business can benefit from a strong performance i……

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  • Dangdang: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold
    DANG2014-03-09

    Dangdang: Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain Hold

    E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. Expect Better 4Q13 Results and 1Q14 Guidance; Profitability Could Come Sooner than Expected; Maintain HoldWe expect Dangdang to report better than expected 4Q13 results and provide better 1Q14 guidance due to the ongoing execution of its marketplace strategy, favorable taxation changes and a more favorable competitive environment. As such we believe the company will accomplish profitability in 4Q13, sooner than our previous expectation. However, we believe the long-term outlook for its profitability is still uncertain due to dynamic competitive environment. As such, we maintain our Hold rating.  Dangdang (DANG) will report 4Q13 results on Thursday, February 27, 2014 prior to the market open with a 7:00am ET conference call.·Both topline and bottom line ……

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