Research Reports

  • HTHT2014-02-19

    Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - December 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - December 2013    RevPAR Could Be Weaker for HMIN Organic But Strong for Motel 168 Y/Y in 4Q13October – December 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. ·  Newly added hotels met the full year target – By December 23, 2013, the total number of hotels for HMIN could be 2,171 (including 1,785 Home Inns organic, 368 Motel 168 hotels and 18 Yitel Hotels) (Figure 1). Among these hotels, there could be 399 newly opened (including 61 Motel 168 hotels) in 2013, almost completing the company’s full year target of 400. For HMIN organic, about 30.3% of the new hotels opened in 2013 could be located in tier-1 cities and 40.1% in tier-2……

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  • China Lodging Group (HTHT) – December 2013
    HTHT2014-02-19

    China Lodging Group (HTHT) – December 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – China Lodging Group (HTHT) – December 20134Q13 RevPAR Could be Flat or Slightly Up Y/Y Due to Weaker Occupancy; New Openings To Surpass Full Year Target  October - December 2013 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  New openings could pass full year target – By December 23, 2013, HTHT’s total number of hotels could be at 1,449 (Figure 1), up from 1,035 at the end of 2012, which means there could be 414 newly opened hotels in FY2013, more than the company’s target of 371-381. In 4Q13, HTHT’s upscale hotels, Manxin and Joya, opened in Lijiang and Wuhan, respectively. Among the total hotel portfolio, there could be 1 Manxin hotel, 1 Joya hotel, 75 Ji Hotels, ……

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  • CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption
    CTRP2013-12-27

    CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCT. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International (CTRP) – December 2013    CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption November - December 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Coverage of mobile-only coupon was stable during December 12th promotion – Taking advantage of the December 12th, 2013 nationwide sales event, CTRP had about 1,930 hotels in 8 of the largest cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Chongqing and Shenzhen), or 16.4% of hotel coverage participated in the mobile-only coupon program vs. Qunar (QUNR, NR) with about 11,200 hotels (or 40%) and eLong (LONG, Hold) with 550 hotels (or 5%). The 16.4% of its mobile-on……

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  • NTES2013-12-27

    NTES: Performance of Games Could Be Flat Over Last Quarter

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCT. H. Data Flash – NetEase, Inc. – October 2013    Performance of Games Could Be Flat Over Last Quarter October 1 – November 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Popularity level of MMO games could decrease to an average of 1.33M or 9.0% Q/Q during the period of 10/01/203-11/25/2013 (Figure 1). Among the major games, World of Warcraft (WOW) could decrease 3.7% Q/Q and Fantasy Westward Journey (FWWJ) could decrease 10.6% Q/Q, while Wuhun could increase 32.3% Q/Q.  ·  Number of servers of major MMO games could increase slightly – There could be a net increase of 10 servers for WOW and FWWJ, leading to a total of 781 servers by November 25……

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  • Ctrip:Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY
    CTRP2013-12-27

    Ctrip:Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY

    Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY CTRP stock has dropped 17% from $59.19 since its 3Q13 earnings on Nov. 5, which we believe reflects investors’ two concerns: 1) the impact from BIDU’s (Hold) exclusive relationship with Qunar (QUNR, NR); and 2) potential margin pressure from its aggressive mobile promotions. We do not worry about the first issue as BIDU probably accounts for 10% of CTRP’s total traffic, which can be easily compensated by traffic from QUNR and other vendors like Qihoo (QIHU, BUY). For the second concern, we believe it should not be a concern at all since it can actually be a long term positive. We believe the migration to mobile is revolutionizing……

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  • China Mobile Internet - Mobile Games, November 2013
    CYOU700-HKQIHU2013-12-27

    China Mobile Internet - Mobile Games, November 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – China Mobile Internet - Mobile Games, November 2013    Emerging Market Far From Being Settled; Ramping Up From Early Stage  November 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Fragmented market with thousands of games – The industry is highly fragmented with thousands of games in each of the major Android stores in China. By 11/25/2013, total number of mobile games in China's major Android markets was about 2.5M, vs. 2.2M at the end of 3Q13 (Figure 1). Among the 18 App Stores, Anzhi had over 40K game apps, followed by Baidu Group at 29.4K and Qihoo at 29.1K (Figure 2).  ·  Total downloads of mobile games – By 11/25/2013, there were over……

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  • QIHU2013-12-27

    Qihoo 360:Monetization of Search and Mobile to Drive Future Growth; Maintain Buy and PT

    Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd.Monetization of Search and Mobile to Drive Future Growth; Maintain Buy and PT QIHU reported strong 3Q13 results and 4Q13 guidance beating consensus. We believe the accelerating monetization in search as well as mobile could continue to serve as growth drivers for the company’s future growth. Specifically, we believe QIHU’s search is likely to take off in 2014 as it has reached a critical level of traffic market share, and we expect QIHU mobile game to continue to benefit from rapid growth in mobile game users as well as possible increase in ARPU.  As such, we reiterate our BUY rating and maintain our price target at $94.·  Accelerating search monetization to narrow the gap with traffic market share – There is a significant gap between QIHU’s traffic ……

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  • QIHU2013-12-27

    Qihoo 360: Monetization in Mobile and Search Driving Upside in 2H2013; Maintain Buy Rating

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCQihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Monetization in Mobile and Search Driving Upside in 2H2013; Maintain Buy Rating   Following the momentum of the strong performance of the last quarters, we expect the monetization of mobile as well as search to continue to drive growth in 2H13. In 3Q13, mobile downloads could see significant growth, while search continues to gain market share. As such, we reiterate our BUY rating and will revisit our valuation and our estimates post 3Q13 earnings results, which will be released before the market opens on November 25 with a 7:30AM EST conference call. ·  Continue to expand its search market share ahead of revenue share –The market share for QIHU's search engine has been increasing consistently. We  believe it could be at 20.……

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  • Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Social Network and Communication, December 2013
    700-HKSINA2013-12-27

    Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Social Network and Communication, December 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Social Network and Communication, December 2013    Concentrated Market Led By Tencent and Sina  December 2013 Data Highlights:  A highly concentrated market where the top 2 vendors take ~72.5% market share – Mobile social network and communication include several sub-sectors; the leading ones are social network and messenger, social media, VoIP and SMS (short message service) tools. According to our proprietary data, we believe China's mobile social network and communication (SNC) market is a highly concentrated market, where the top 2 vendors account for 72.5% of the total market share as of 12/19/2013 based on the number of cumulative downloads. Tencent takes about 62.0% and Sina about 10.5% (Figure 1, 2 &……

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  • XRSXUE2013-10-22

    Changes in Course Structure May Lead to Better Growth for the Rest of FY2014; Maintain Buy

    New Oriental Education & Technology Changes in Course Structure May Lead to Better Growth for the Rest of FY2014; Maintain Buy EDU will report F1Q14 results before the market opens on October 23, 2013. We believe EDU could see better growth in F2Q14 due to better growth in ARPU as well as potential opening of new learning centers. The possible higher ARPU growth could be the result of higher concentration in non-overseas English tutoring classes. Based on our proprietary data, we have observed stronger growth in the contribution from EDU’s non-overseas English tutoring classes, mainly K-12 training in F2Q14. Most non-overseas English classes are in the form of small and VIP classes and they could account for 86% of total classes, up from 81% in F2Q13. In addition, based on our propriet……

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  • XRS2013-10-22

    Chinese TAL Education Group: Strong Momentum In Enrollment May Lead To Better Performance; Maintain Hold On Valuation

    XRS will report F2Q14 results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 22, 2013 with an 8:00AM EST conference call. We believe the company is highly likely to deliver at least in line or better F2Q14 results driven by strong growth in enrollments. We also believe the company may provide better F3Q14 guidance mainly driven by better growth in ARPU. The company is enjoying better growth momentum and we believe most of it may have been priced in. The company is trading at 24.5X consensus FY2014 non-GAAP EPS, above its peer company New Oriental (EDU, BUY). As such, we maintain our Hold Rating. ·Data suggests strong growth in small class enrollments in F2Q14 –  While the company guided for revenue growth of 41.1% - 47.4% Q/Q, based on our proprietary data we have observed a much higher ……

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  • HTHT2013-10-09

    China Lodging Group (HTHT) – September 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – China Lodging Group (HTHT) – September 20133Q13 RevPAR Could be Flat or Slightly Decline Y/Y Due to Weaker Occupancy Rate; New Openings Could Continue to be Strong July - September 2013 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.    New openings could be strong in 3Q13 – By September 29, 2013, HTHT’s total hotel number (excluding franchised Starway hotels) could increase to 1,338 from 1,193 at the end of 2Q13 (Figure 1). Among the newly added hotels, about 8 could be JI Hotels, 105 Hanting Hotels, 21 Hi Inns and 11 Starway Hotels. By September 29, 2013, the number of hotels in 1st tier cities and 2nd tier cities as a % of total hotels could be about 23.9% and 37.8……

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  • Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) September 2013: Continuing Its Ramp in Search and Mobile
    QIHU2013-10-09

    Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) September 2013: Continuing Its Ramp in Search and Mobile

    T. H. Data Flash – Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) – September 2013    Continuing Its Ramp in Search and MobileJuly 1 to September 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.    Market share of QIHU's search engine could continue to increase – As measured by pageviews, QIHU’s market share could be at 19.5% by September 25, 2013, up from 15.8% at the end of June 2013 (Figure 1). Since most of QIHU’s search traffic is diverged from its browser, we expect the market share of Qihoo's search engine to be eventually in line with the market share of browser at about 25% (Figure 2).    The number of servers and games for web game hosting business could be steady……

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  • Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - September 2013: RevPAR Could Be Weaker for HMIN Organic But Could Be Better for Motel 168 Y/Y in 3Q13
    GAMEHMIN2013-10-09

    Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - September 2013: RevPAR Could Be Weaker for HMIN Organic But Could Be Better for Motel 168 Y/Y in 3Q13

    RevPAR Could Be Weaker for HMIN Organic But Could Be Better for Motel 168 Y/Y in 3Q13 July – September 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.    Total number of hotels and newly added hotels – By September 23, 2013, the total number of hotels for HMIN could be 2,031 (including 1,670 Home Inns organic and 361 Motel 168 hotels) (Figure 1). Among these hotels, there could be 259 newly opened (including 27 Motel 168 hotels) in the first nine months of 2013. For HMIN organic, about 58% of the new hotels opened in 2013 could be located in lower tier cities, thus about 51.0% of the total network hotels could be in lower tier cities (Figure 2).    RevPAR could decline Y/Y ……

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  • Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) – September 2013: Market Share Could Be Down Slightly; Activities in App Store Could Be Strong
    BIDU2013-10-09

    Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) – September 2013: Market Share Could Be Down Slightly; Activities in App Store Could Be Strong

       Market Share Could Be Down Slightly; Activities in App Store Could Be Strong    July 1 - September 25, 2013 Operating Data Highlights:    Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.    Market share of BIDU's search engine could be largely flat - Market share of BIDU measured by PV could decrease slightly to 65% by September 24, 2013 from 66.5% at the end of June 2013, compared with QIHU (Buy, PT $94; see page 2 for valuation & risks) at 19.5% by September 24, 2013 and 15.8% at the end of June (Figure 1).      Activities in BIDU’s mobile app store could be strong - By September 25, 2013, the average number of total mobile apps in BIDU’s Android app store co……

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  • China Lodging Group (HTHT): RevPAR Could Improve M/M Due to Higher ADR in August; Healthy Openings in Multiple Brands
    HTHT2013-09-08

    China Lodging Group (HTHT): RevPAR Could Improve M/M Due to Higher ADR in August; Healthy Openings in Multiple Brands

    RevPAR Could Improve M/M Due to Higher ADR in August; Healthy Openings in Multiple Brands July - August 2013 Operating Data Highlights:The data in this report are extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·         Healthy openings in multiple brands – By August 27, 2013, HTHT’s total hotel number (excluding franchised Starway hotels) could be about 1,303, an increase of 110 from 1,193 at the end of 2Q13 (Figure 2). Among the newly added hotels, about 6 could be JI Hotels, 82 Hanting Hotels, 12 Hi Inns and 10 Starway Hotels. By August 27, 2013, the number of hotels in 1st tier cities and 2nd tier cities as a % of total hotels could be about 23.4% and 36.9%, respectively. Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou could have the most ho……

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  • Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) – August 2013
    QIHU2013-09-08

    Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) – August 2013

    Continuing Its Ramp in Search and Mobile July 1 to August 26, 2013Operating DataHighlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·         Market share of QIHU's search engine could continue to increase – As measured by pageviews, QIHU’s market share could be at 17.5% by August 24, 2013, up from 15.8% at the end of June 2013 (Figure 1). Since most of QIHU’s search traffic is diverged from its browser, we expect the market share of Qihoo's search engine to be eventually in line with the market share of browser at about 25% (Figure 2).·         Traffic for QIHU’s search enginecould continue to ramp – The daily unique visitors (UV) on QIHU’s search could be 20.2M or up 21.……

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  • Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - August 2013
    HMIN2013-09-01

    Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) - August 2013

    July - August 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology. Total number of hotels and newly added hotels – By August 28, 2013, the total hotel number could be about 2,015 (including 353 Motel 168 hotels, 1,652 Home Inns hotels and 10 Yitel hotels) (Figure 1), covering more than 285 cities, up from 1,953 hotels (341 Motel 168 hotels, 1,732 Home Inns hotels and 10 Yitel hotels) in 271 cities as of 2Q13.  About 22% of the hotels could be located in 1st tier cities and 34% could be in tier 2 cities. Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou could have the most hotels (Figure 2). RevPAR could increase slightly M/M in August – For the first 27 days of August 2013, RevPAR could be RMB159 – RMB161 (Figure ……

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  • Youku Tudou Inc. 20130521
    YOKU2013-05-28

    Youku Tudou Inc. 20130521

    The online video market in China is easy to enter, but hard to get ahead of othersand harder to make money. In the past several years, with the support of traffic andcash from their parent company, iQiyi, Tencent Video and SOHU video all caughtup and became the number 2, 3 and 4 vendors in the market. However, at thispoint, all vendors are at similar levels and going forward, what could make thedifference in this market may not be the traffic and money, but rather the industryknow-how and brand recognition. On that front, we believe Youku Tudou has theadvantage. With its content operation expertise, YOKU releases the highestnumber of hit content and owns the largest content library, which in turn attractsmore users and gains relatively higher loyalty. As such, we reiterate our Buy ratingan……

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  • TH Data CTRP 05232013
    CTRP2013-05-28

    TH Data CTRP 05232013

    April - May 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Website traffic increased Y/Y in May – For the first 22 days of May, averagedaily pageviews (PV) of ctrip.com increased 29.8% Y/Y while daily uniquevisitors (UV) increased 26.8% Y/Y (Figure 1). Specifically, UV of air channelincreased 1.2% Y/Y (Figure 2) vs. UV of hotel channel increase of 32.2% Y/Y(Figure 3) for the first 22 days of May, which could indicate that the company ispicking up market share in online hotel bookings.Ticket volume could be up 29% Y/Y in April – Ticket volume of CTRPreached about 3.85M in April 2013, representing a 28.9% Y/Y growth and 13.5%of total aviation passenger volume of 28.5M in April 2013 (Figure 4).Both the scale and amount of air-ticket cash rebate increased in May – ByMay 22, the amount of average daily cash re……

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