Research Reports

  • TAL: Attendee Capacity Growth Driving Better FY3Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Education Business Continues To Soar
    2021-01-07

    TAL: Attendee Capacity Growth Driving Better FY3Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Education Business Continues To Soar

    TAL will report FY3Q21 results on January 21st before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on TAL’s FY3Q21 performance. In FY3Q21, we believe TAL is likely to benefit from the higher growth of the number of normal-price courses and associated attendees in Peiyou as well as its continuing efforts in online expansions. Based on our data and calculations, we believe the company’s FY3Q21 revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at $1,030M (24.4% Y/Y growth vs. company’s guidance of 28% - 32% Y/Y growth) and our estimate, and likely to come in towards the higher-end of guidance. The revenue for its online education is likely to be $294M, up 83.8% Y/Y driven by the expansion in attendee capacity at 76.9 Y/Y growth, based on our data.……

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  • EDU: EDU Remains Focused On Executing Its Own OMO Strategy; Positive On FY2Q21 Performance
    EDU2021-01-06

    EDU: EDU Remains Focused On Executing Its Own OMO Strategy; Positive On FY2Q21 Performance

    EDU will report FY2Q21 results on January 22nd before the market opens with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on EDU’s FY2Q21 performance. While competition in the online education market is heating up, EDU is finding its own way to remain competitive by expanding its regional OMO (online merger offline) reach, instead of burning cash to buy temporary enrollments. We believe EDU’s OMO is likely to enable the company to accomplish better enrollment coverage without pressuring the margin. The lingering negative impact from the high spending of its pure online arm, 1797.HK (HK$28.05, Not Rated) is likely to be over in FY3Q21.……

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  • 3690.HK: Rapidly Rolling Out Meituan Selected In More Places; Food Delivery GTV Likely To Grow Y/Y In October And November
    2020-12-17

    3690.HK: Rapidly Rolling Out Meituan Selected In More Places; Food Delivery GTV Likely To Grow Y/Y In October And November

    Meituan announced in early September that it will expand its community group purchase service, Meituan Selected (美团优选), to 1,000 Chinese cities and counties by the end of 2020. Based on our data, in early December, Meituan Selected is available in 277 cities vs. 186 on November 16th. For food delivery, Meituan market share decreased slightly in October and November 2020 compared with 3Q20, as Ele.me organized successful “11.11” promotional events; however, Meituan’s market share is still close to 70%. Based on our data and calculation, Meituan’s 4Q20 revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB36,110M (28.2% Y/Y growth). ……

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  • 3690.HK: Accelerating Growth In Supply And Demand for Online Deliveries Leads To Better 3Q20 Results
    2020-11-25

    3690.HK: Accelerating Growth In Supply And Demand for Online Deliveries Leads To Better 3Q20 Results

    Meituan will report 3Q20 results on November 30th before the markets open with a 6am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance in 3Q20. The demand for food delivery services accelerated in 3Q20 as business activities and life returned to normal. The supply side of food delivery has been growing significantly as restaurant re-openings and their online migration continues their upward trend nationwide. The number of food delivery orders and restaurants joining online services were up significantly at 50% Y/Y and 22% Y/Y, respectively, in 3Q20. Based on our data and calculation, Meituan’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB33,833M (23.1% Y/Y growth) and our model at RMB33,673M. ……

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  • BZUN / 9991.HK: Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue Due To Product Mix Optimization; 4Q20 Outlook Is Strong On Robust Sales
    2020-11-19

    BZUN / 9991.HK: Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue Due To Product Mix Optimization; 4Q20 Outlook Is Strong On Robust Sales

    BZUN will report 3Q20 results on November 23rd before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on BZUN’s 3Q20 and expect stronger 4Q20 performance. BZUN provided weaker than expected 3Q20 guidance at 16% - 20% Y/Y growth, as the third quarter experienced weaker than normal seasonality. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN performed better in 3Q20 than its guidance, and net revenue is likely to be above the high end of the company’s guidance at RMB1,800M and the Street at RMB1,794M. ……

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  • NTES / 9999.HK: Aggressive Promotion of New Games And Online Education Driving Topline Growth In 3Q20
    NTES2020-11-18

    NTES / 9999.HK: Aggressive Promotion of New Games And Online Education Driving Topline Growth In 3Q20

    NTES will report 3Q20 results on November 19th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Normally, 3Q is a strong quarter for PC games, however, 3Q20 is a shorter quarter as the college entrance exam was pushed to July from June. Additionally, after being quarantined at home in 1Q20 and making up schoolwork in 2Q20, families and students finally have a chance to do outdoor activities. However, NTES launched a few new games in 3Q20, which included Fantasy Westward Journey 3D, Dawn of Isles, Sky: Children of Light and Onmyoji: Yokai Koya; these games performed well. Based on our data and model, we believe NTES’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be at least in line with the Street consensus at RMB18,197M (24.3% Y/Y growth). ……

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  • BILI: New Content Development Driving The Development In Community and Commerce; Strong Live Broadcasting, Games And Show Business Driving Better 3Q20 Results
    2020-11-17

    BILI: New Content Development Driving The Development In Community and Commerce; Strong Live Broadcasting, Games And Show Business Driving Better 3Q20 Results

    BILI will report 3Q20 results on November 18th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are positive into BILI’s 3Q20 performance. Based on our data and model, we believe BILI’s revenue in 3Q20 is likely to outperform consensus at RMB3,068M (65.0% Y/Y growth), the high-end of its guidance range of RMB3,050M – RMB3,100M and our model. In the past year, centered around its content-community-commerce strategy, the company made good investments on multiple fronts and they are benefiting from such investment. ……

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  • ZTO: Parcel Volume Y/Y Growth Offsetting Decline In Revenue Per Parcel; Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue
    2020-11-17

    ZTO: Parcel Volume Y/Y Growth Offsetting Decline In Revenue Per Parcel; Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue

    ZTO will report 3Q20 results on November 18th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. The express sector in China is undergoing an intensified price competition. Several top vendors are all public listed companies with enough capital on their balance sheets. It is hard to project when the competition will end. However, we believe ZTO will be one of the last standing winners since it has higher margin profit and richer capital than others. Based on our data and model, ZTO revenue is likely be at least in line with consensus at RMB 6,252M (18.7% Y/Y growth). ……

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  • YY: Better Monetization From BIGO While YY Live Recovered; Expect Better 3Q20 Results
    YY2020-11-13

    YY: Better Monetization From BIGO While YY Live Recovered; Expect Better 3Q20 Results

    YY will report 3Q20 results on November 16th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call.  Based on our data and model, we believe YY’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be higher than the high end of YY’s guidance range of RMB5,850B - RMB6,000B and consensus at RMB5,942M. Bigo Live and Likee are doing well overseas even though people are staying home less as lockdown restrictions were lifted. YY Live in China also recovered well, as YY platform has become a place where entertainment celebrities can perform and interact with audiences.……

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  • BIDU: Managed Page And Smart Mini Driving Better Traffic And Time Spend; Expect Better 3Q20 Results
    BIDU2020-11-12

    BIDU: Managed Page And Smart Mini Driving Better Traffic And Time Spend; Expect Better 3Q20 Results

    BIDU will report 3Q20 results on November 16th after the markets close followed by an 8:15pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe BIDU’s 3Q20 net revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB27,458M and our model at RMB27,238M. We believe BIDU is benefiting from the recovery in the ad sector, in addition to high adoption of its Managed Page and Smart Mini, which led to growth of BIDU mobile traffic and time spend in 3Q20. Furthermore, IQ’s subscribing business is likely to do better in 3Q20 mainly due to better ARPU and higher video views in 3Q20 compared to 2Q20. ……

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  • IQ: Better Subscription ARPU Driving Better 3Q20 Performance; Content Supply and Content Views Continue To Improve In October
    2020-11-12

    IQ: Better Subscription ARPU Driving Better 3Q20 Performance; Content Supply and Content Views Continue To Improve In October

    IQ will report 3Q20 results on November 16th after the markets close followed by a 7pm EST conference call.  Based on our data and calculations, we believe IQ’s total revenue in 3Q20 is likely to be higher than consensus expectation at RMB7,195M and our model at RMB7,120M. While the new number of subscribing members showed limited increase due to the short summer holidays, the ARPU from members is likely to be better on a Q/Q basis as pay-per-view model adoption on IQ exclusive and in-house content titles as well as member fee increases. We believe the new subscription business is likely to keep improving in 4Q20 due to more content and higher ARPU. ……

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  • PDD: Strong User Growth Momentum And High Transaction Volume In 3Q20
    2020-11-10

    PDD: Strong User Growth Momentum And High Transaction Volume In 3Q20

    PDD will report 3Q20 results on November 12th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Even though the third quarter of 2020 is a weaker quarter for e-commerce after the hike in 2Q20, with its ongoing efforts, PDD traffic as well as its user engagements recovered. Based on our data and our model, we believe PDD’s total revenue in 3Q20E is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB12,338M (64.2% Y/Y growth). However, based on our data, we believe PDD’s sales & marketing expense is likely to be below the street expectation at RMB9.97B. ……

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  • VIPS: Improving Demand for Apparel Drive Better 3Q20 Performance
    VIPS2020-11-09

    VIPS: Improving Demand for Apparel Drive Better 3Q20 Performance

    VIPS will report 3Q20 results on November 13th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive into Vipshop’s 3Q20 earnings. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, it significantly improved in 3Q20. VIPS has been increasing its efforts to promote KuaiQiang (快抢) as one of its growing channels. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be at least in line but highly likely to be better than consensus at RMB21.6B (10.3% Y/Y growth), which is at the high end of its guidance (RMB20.6B – RMB21.6B). ……

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  • HUYA: Less Traffic Spending Is Likely Positive To Bottom Line; 4Q20 Traffic Fights Are Still Intense
    2020-11-09

    HUYA: Less Traffic Spending Is Likely Positive To Bottom Line; 4Q20 Traffic Fights Are Still Intense

    HUYA will report 3Q20 results on November 11th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, we believe HUYA is likely to deliver in line revenue, but better net earnings compared to consensus, as the company spent less on traffic acquisition. Looking into 4Q20, we believe the fight for traffic is still tense as most of the traffic is occupied by ecommerce’s annual promotional sales. However, working with Tencent, we believe HUYA has the capability to manage the traffic situation. ……

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  • TME: Adding More Paying Users To QQ Music; More Live Concerts To Offset The Weaker Season For Live Streaming; Expect At Least In Line 3Q20
    2020-11-06

    TME: Adding More Paying Users To QQ Music; More Live Concerts To Offset The Weaker Season For Live Streaming; Expect At Least In Line 3Q20

    TME will report 3Q20 results on November 10th after the close of the markets followed by an 8pm EST conference call. Based on our data, we estimate that total revenue is likely to be at least in line with consensus at RMB7,496M. In 3Q20, the music subscription business was still in high growth driven by higher paying members and flat ARPU; social entertainment showed recovery in ARPU with stable users. ……

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  • BABA: New Initiatives To Enable A Strong FY3Q21; FY2Q21 Continued Its Momentum From FY1Q21
    2020-11-02

    BABA: New Initiatives To Enable A Strong FY3Q21; FY2Q21 Continued Its Momentum From FY1Q21

    BABA will report FY2Q21 results on November 5th before the market opens with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Based on our data and model, FY2Q21E revenue is likely to be at least in line with consensus at RMB155.9B (31.0% Y/Y growth). China’s e-commerce industry in 3Q20 is experiencing weaker seasonality than before; however, we are expecting a strong 4Q20. ……

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  • TAL: Higher Growth In Attendees Combined With Less Promotional Discounts Driving Better FY2Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Business Was Still High
    2020-10-21

    TAL: Higher Growth In Attendees Combined With Less Promotional Discounts Driving Better FY2Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Business Was Still High

    TAL will report FY2Q21 results on October 22nd before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on TAL’s FY2Q21 topline performance. Based on our data and model, we believe the company’s FY2Q21 revenue is likely to be at least in line, but highly likely to be higher than consensus at $1,133.0M (24.0% Y/Y growth, vs. company’s guidance of 15% - 21% Y/Y growth. ……

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  • T.H. Data Flash – Vipshop – August & 3Q20E: Growth In Apparel And Fashion Picking Up In July And August; Positive For 3Q20 Performance
    VIPS2020-10-09

    T.H. Data Flash – Vipshop – August & 3Q20E: Growth In Apparel And Fashion Picking Up In July And August; Positive For 3Q20 Performance

    We are positive into Vipshop’s potential performance in 3Q20E. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, the growth picked up in both July and August 2020 with 18.5% Y/Y and 15.2% Y/Y growth, respectively, which significantly improved from 2.3% Y/Y decline in 2Q20. The newer channels, Fengqiang (疯抢) and KuaiQiang (快抢), are growing channels, and VIPS has been increasing its efforts in these channels. ……

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  • T.H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – August & 3Q20E: New Initiatives and Better Performance In 3Q20; Expect A Strong 4Q20 On Blockbuster Sales
    JD2020-10-08

    T.H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – August & 3Q20E: New Initiatives and Better Performance In 3Q20; Expect A Strong 4Q20 On Blockbuster Sales

    We are positive on JD’s 3Q20 performance. Post the hike in 2Q20, China e-commerce vendors including JD in 3Q20 experienced a lower growth season than its normal seasonality with most categories showing slower growth, except categories like apparel, shoes & bags and accessories. JD did a big promotional event in September together with Kuaishuo (a short video vendor like TikTok) with huge subsidizations, which was an additional positive compared with last year. ……

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  • EDU: Stronger Recovery In U-Can And Higher ASP As A Result Of High Volume Of Course Sessions Are Likely To Lead To Positive FY1Q21 Performance
    EDU2020-10-05

    EDU: Stronger Recovery In U-Can And Higher ASP As A Result Of High Volume Of Course Sessions Are Likely To Lead To Positive FY1Q21 Performance

    EDU will report FY1Q21 results on October 13th before the market opens with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on EDU’s FY1Q21 performance. COVID-19 has changed how education is conducted; co-existence of offline, online and semi-online are likely to be the future. For EDU’s business, overseas and 1-1 are impacted, but its K-12, specifically U-Can, has bounced back nicely. While the number of K-12 courses and attendees grew 0.9% Y/Y and declined 7.1% Y/Y, respectively, the U-Can segment grew 12.9% Y/Y and 17.0% Y/Y, respectively, in FY1Q21. ……

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