• CTRP2017-10-05

    T. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com (CTRP) – August 2017 & Preliminary 3Q17: While the Bundled Sales Issue Lingers, 3Q17E is Likely to Be At Least In-line as SkyScanner Y/Y Growth Accelerated

    While thebundled sales issue continues to linger, based on our data and calculations, weexpect CTRP’s 3Q17E revenue to be around RMB7,700M, better than or at leastin-line with consensus at RMB7,647M and toward the higher-end of its revenueguidance range of RMB7,522.0M - RMB7,800.6M (35% - 40% Y/Y growth). ……

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  • CTRP2016-03-14

    CTRP: Consolidation and Hotel Expansion Led to Better Revenue Growth; 4Q15 Margin Can Be Better Due to Less Competition, but Is Likely to be Reset; Maintain Buy

    Ctrip will report 4Q15 results on Wednesday, March 16, 2016 after the close of the market followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We believe that CTRP is highly likely to report 4Q results above Street expectations due to strong hotel expansion, which can be positive for revenue, as well as less couponing, which can be positive for both revenue and margin. The trends are likely to continue based on our proprietary data. As for its 1Q16 guidance, since CTRP is going to consolidate QUNR, we believe……

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  • CTRPLONGQUNR2015-11-16

    CTRP: Maintain BUY on Its Absolute Market Leadership Position; Expect Solid 3Q15 Results on Hotel Expansion

    Ctrip will report 3Q15 results on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 after the close of the market followed by a 7pm EST conference call. We maintain our BUY rating and our raise price target to $110.00 as CTRP has become the absolute leader of the China online travel market after its investment in eLong (LONG, $17.01, HOLD) and Qunar (QUNR, $39.95, Not Rated). Along with the booming underlying consumer traveling market, we believe CTRP can enjoy high growth for years to come. As for its upcoming 3Q15……

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  • CTRP2015-08-03

    CTRP: Hotel Coverage Expansion and Better Margins May Drive 2Q15 Results; Maintain Buy

    Ctrip will report 2Q15 results on Monday, August 3, 2015 after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are expecting better 2Q15 top line driven by strong travel momentum as well as CTRP’s ability to execute. We believe the volumes of both hotel room nights and air are likely to be better than the company’s guidance driven by its aggressive expansion in the hotel and air ticketing businesses. In terms of the bottom line, we believe Ctrip may perform better than consens……

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  • CTRP2015-05-11

    T. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) - March 2015: CTRP’s Hotel & Air Ticket Continued to Accelerate in March 2015 and 1Q15

    January 1 – March 31, 2015 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.•Hotel room nights might grow 63.7% Y/Y in 1Q15 – Hotel room nights of CTRP could reach ~20.9M in 1Q15, representing ~63.7% Y/Y growth, following ~53% Y/Y growth in 4Q14. The higher growth may come from both 5 star hotels (driven by higher volume per hotel) and lower star-rated hotels (driven by wider hotel coverage). For the month o……

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  • CTRPQUNR2014-11-25

    CTRP: Investments and Competition Could Pressure Margin; Growth of Hotel Volume and Coverage Remained Solid; Maintain BUY

    CTRP's margin could be under pressure due to investments in new initiatives and price competition in core hotel business, even though we expect at least in-line 3Q14 top line results and in-line 4Q14 guidance driven by strong volume growth, especially in hotel bookings. We maintain our Buy rating because we believe Ctrip is well positioned to capture China's travel demands. The company’s 3Q14 earnings results will be released on Tuesday, November 25, 2014 with a 7pm EST conference call. ……

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  • CTRP2014-08-13

    CTRP: Is There a Choice Except to Invest? Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target

    Ctrip.com International Ltd.  Is There a Choice Except to Invest? Maintain Buy and Raise Price Target In order to maintain its leading position in China’srapidly evolving travel market, we believe CTRP has no other choice but to invest in both branding and products. Otherwise, it would be left behind by themarket. What is worth pointing out is that CTRP has a good track record in the execution of its investments. In the recent past including 2Q14, its investment initiatives all yielded sign……

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  • CTRP2014-08-13

    CTRP: Market Share Expansion Continued in 2Q14; Maintain BUY

    Ctrip.com International Ltd.  Market Share Expansion Continued in 2Q14; Maintain BUYWe expect at least inline 2Q14 results and 3Q14 guidance even though there might be some negative impact from fixed commission rate cuts from state owned airlines in 3Q14. The upside in revenue is mainly coming from volume growth in both hotel and air ticket bookings. As the momentum is likely to continue, we maintain our Buy rating but we will revisit our price target after 2Q14 earnings results, which will……

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  • CTRP2014-02-19

    CTRP: Healthy Volume Growth in 4Q13

    T. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International (CTRP) – January 2014    Healthy Volume Growth in 4Q13December 2013 - January 2014 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Coverage of hotel coupon on mobile was slightly larger in January 2014 – In the first 39 days of 2014 in sample cities, the percentage of hotels that participated in mobile-only coupon programs was about 18.2% vs. 16.4……

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  • CTRPLONGQUNR2014-02-19

    China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – January 2014

    T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – January 2014    Air Travel Boom Due to Earlier Spring Festival; More Airlines and Airports Are Approved to Meet Future Travel Demand INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTSIn January, the number of aircraft movements in China is likely to grow 8.6% M/M based on our proprietary data (Figure 1). Much of the growth can be attributed to Spring Festival, which occurred earlier in the year and is traditionally one of the busiest travel holidays in China ……

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  • CTRPLONGQUNR2014-02-19

    Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Travel, December 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – Mobile Apps Market in China: Mobile Travel, December 2013A Market Led By Qunar and Ctrip   December 2013 Data Highlights:·  Mobile travel booking market is fragmented – The leading mobile travel sectors include travel booking (including air tickets, hotels, attractions and car rental), train, public transit (including bus and subway), travel guide (including guide, review, flight information, community and translation) and others (taxi) (Figure 2). Mobile travel book……

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  • CTRPLONGQUNR2014-02-19

    China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – December 2013

    T. H. Data Flash – China Civil Aviation Airport Monthly – December 2013    Outbound Travel Likely to Heat Up During Spring Festival; On-Time Flight Departure Rate Improved INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS:In November, the number of aircraft movements in China was likely to decline 0.6% M/M based on our proprietary data (Figure 1). Looking into the future, the outbound travel demand during the upcoming Spring Festival could benefit airports with meaningful international business such as Beijing Capi……

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  • CTRP2013-12-27

    CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption

    T. H. CAPITAL, LLCT. H. Data Flash – Ctrip.com International (CTRP) – December 2013    CTRP’s Mobile-Only Coupon Drives Mobile Adoption November - December 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Data in this report is extracted from publicly available sources and processed with our proprietary methodology.·  Coverage of mobile-only coupon was stable during December 12th promotion – Taking advantage of the December 12th, 2013 nationwide sales event, CTRP had about 1,930 hotels in 8 of the ……

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  • CTRP2013-12-27

    Ctrip:Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY

    Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Embracing and Investing in Industry Revolution from Mobile – One Time Margin Set Back in Exchange for Long Term Growth; Maintain BUY CTRP stock has dropped 17% from $59.19 since its 3Q13 earnings on Nov. 5, which we believe reflects investors’ two concerns: 1) the impact from BIDU’s (Hold) exclusive relationship with Qunar (QUNR, NR); and 2) potential margin pressure from its aggressive mobile promotions. We do not worry about the first issue as BIDU probably accoun……

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  • CTRP2013-05-28

    TH Data CTRP 05232013

    April - May 2013 Operation Data Highlights:Website traffic increased Y/Y in May – For the first 22 days of May, averagedaily pageviews (PV) of ctrip.com increased 29.8% Y/Y while daily uniquevisitors (UV) increased 26.8% Y/Y (Figure 1). Specifically, UV of air channelincreased 1.2% Y/Y (Figure 2) vs. UV of hotel channel increase of 32.2% Y/Y(Figure 3) for the first 22 days of May, which could indicate that the company ispicking up market share in online hotel bookings.Ticket volume could be up 2……

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