• 2020-08-18

    PDD: Expect Strong 2Q Revenue Performance; Higher S&M Spending in 2Q20

    PDD will report 2Q20 results on August 21st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on PDD’s performance in 2Q20. In addition to the company’s significant marketing spending and subsidization, the pent-up demand from consumers and merchants participation of “6.18” deals also elevated the sales. On top of that, due to the social functions of its APP, the user engagement or shopping frequency showed continuing upward trends. Per user GMV on PDD is also likely to ……

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  • 2020-05-20

    PDD: Expect PDD Volume Growth Higher Than Expectation And Reasonable S&M In 1Q20

    PDD will report 1Q20 results on May 22nd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, PDD’s total revenue in 1Q20E is likely to be above consensus at RMB4,974M (9.4% Y/Y growth) with a take rate assumption of 2.80%, vs. 2.91% in 4Q19 and 3.01% in 3Q19. We estimate that sales and marketing expense may be in the range of RMB5.0B - RMB 5.2B, as branding and performance-based advertisement spending declined Q/Q but subsidizations are still at a high level.……

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  • 2020-03-09

    PDD: Subsidization Program Driving Revenue Growth; Expect 4Q19 Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus

    PDD will report 4Q19 results on March 11th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, PDD’s total revenue in 4Q19 is likely to be above consensus at RMB10,920M (93.1% Y/Y growth) with a take rate assumption of 3.01%, unchanged from 3Q19, and 3.11% in 2Q19. We estimate that sales & marketing in 4Q19 is likely to be in the range of RMB8.8B to RMB9.1B with brand advertising relatively flat Q/Q, performance based at 35% - 37% Q/Q growth and subsidizat……

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  • 2019-11-12

    PDD: Three-Step Customer Acquisition To Target High Spenders; Positive for GMV And Margin; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Better Than Consensus

    PDD will report 3Q19 results on November 20th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, in 3Q19E, PDD’s revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB7,414M (120% Y/Y growth) driven by its continuing efforts to tap into higher end customers while maintaining its existing lower tier city users. For the key factor sales & marketing expense, we estimate that in 3Q19 it is likely to be between RMB6.1B and RMB6.3B, and we believe the new loss ma……

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  • 2019-10-08

    T. H. Data Flash - Pinduoduo Inc. – August & 3Q19E: Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus

    We are positive on PDD’s 3Q19E performance. We believe the company is still in the stage of building up its e-commerce ecosystem, which requires significant sustainable traffic to operate. Therefore, at the current stage, the key of the business is to buy as much traffic as it can and then sell the traffic to merchants by matching the SKUs with users. That’s why sales and marketing is one of the important factors for PDD as it directly results in revenues.……

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  • 2019-08-16

    PDD: Increasing The ROI On Sales & Marketing Spending; Expect Net Loss Margin To Narrow in 2Q19

    PDD will report 2Q19 financial results on August 21st before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. As China is geographically big with a diverse population, PDD is developing into a less developed market – populations in lower tier cities with lower income or less sophisticated with internet commerce. This group of the population was ignored in the past. ……

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  • 2019-03-08

    PDD: 4Q18 Revenue Likely To Perform Better Driven By High GMV Growth; User Likely To Be Better Driven By Sales and Marketing

    PDD will report 4Q18 results on March 13th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We expect PDD to report 4Q18 revenue above consensus at RMB 5,015M driven by higher growth in GMV. The company has already released its preliminary data for 2018 with total GMV at RMB 472B or growth of 234% Y/Y, and its average active monthly users at 273M, up 249% Y/Y. ……

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  • 2019-01-15

    T. H. Data Flash – Pinduoduo – November & 4Q18E: Enjoying Its Ramping Stage, Positive On 4Q18 Performance

    We are positive on PDD into 4Q18. The company is still in its high growth period. Based on our data and model, and assuming total rate is 2.84% (including 2.50% from ad and 0.34% from commission), 4Q18E revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB 5,015M (325% Y/Y growth). The take rate is a sensitive variable; our take rate assumption at 2.84% is similar with last quarter, which we believe is not aggressive as 3Q18 take rate was conservative based on the company’s guidance.……

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T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offer real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects, from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to the China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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