T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – FY4Q16Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain RobustTmall drove GMV growth in FY4Q16 – According to our proprietary data, total GMV for BABA in FY4Q16 is likely to grow 23%Y/Y to reach RMB736B, of which, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 31% Y/Y (decline of 28% Q/Q) to RMB287B in F4Q16, while the GMV of Taobao is likely to grow 18% Y/Y (decline of 20% Q/Q) to reach RMB449B in F4Q16 (Figure 1). Commission revenue is likely to be at RMB5.6……

BABA will report FY3Q16 results on Thursday, January 28th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. The company has been working on its new strategy to improve the quality and GMV of its Tmall platform, clean up Taobao while increasing its monetization. We believe the strategy can show good results in this quarter. Based on our proprietary data, we believe that BABA is likely to report FY3Q16 results better than consensus expectation at 27% Y/Y growth driven by better monetiz……

BABA will report FY2Q16 results on Tuesday, October 27th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we believe that BABA is likely to report FY2Q16 results better than consensus expectation at 27% Y/Y growth driven by higher commission take rate for Tmall and better advertising revenues from Taobao. For FY3Q16 onward, we believe the company can benefit from Taobao’s recent increase in monetizable search inventories. As the company is working out of ……

Today, BABA announced that it is entering into an agreement with Suning for the exchange of their stakes after BABA’s investment in Intime Retail last year. We believe that as China is going beyond a pure online commerce and marching into online-and-offline integration, BABA’s investments in leading offline retail vendors have put it in the leading position in a new phase of commerce. While it can be one of the most important developments for BABA’s future, it has no effect on FY1Q16 earnings. B……

BABA will report its FY4Q15 results on Thursday, May 7th before the market opens. We believe that we most likely won’t see any positive surprises in its FY4Q15 earnings as it is facing pressure from both short term negatives and fundamental changes. While we are echoing other’s bearish view on BABA, we want to analyze the underlying issues as well as lay out BABA’s strategies and changes to cope with these issues. While the near term impact can be short lived, the fundamental changes may take lo……

January 2015 Data Highlights:•Kugou Technology is the leading player with about 27% market share. Kugou Technology hits the #1 position with its major product, Kugou Music (酷狗音乐). Kuwoo Technology (北京酷我科技有限公司) followed Kugou with a 13% market share, and is well known for its app, Kuwoo Music (酷我音乐). Tencent and Baidu took the positions of #4 and #7, respectively, according to our proprietary data. Baidu’s leading position was mainly attributable to its acquisition of TTPlayer (千千静听). The mobile ……

•Tmall drove GMV growth in 4Q14 – According to our proprietary data, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 71% Y/Y and 78% Q/Q to RMB312B in 4Q14, while the GMV for Taobao is likely to grow 34% Y/Y and 22% Q/Q to RMB465B in 4Q14 (Figure 1). For the month of December 2014, the GMV from Tmall decreased 9% M/M, attributable to decline of sales volume (-22.6% M/M), partially offset by the increase in ASP (16.6% M/M). By categories, the M/M decline in GMV was primarily driven by the decline of categori……