As we are entering into 2Q20, the business activities in China are recovering, and BABA is taking the lead. Our data showed that many verticals’ online sales gained strong Y/Y growth in April after weakness in February and March. Of the twelve level-one verticals, about ten achieved 50% Y/Y – 153% Y/Y growth in April; for example, computer GMV grew 57% Y/Y and liquor at 58% Y/Y (Figure 5). For FY4Q20, we expect mixed results for BABA due to the negative impact from COVID-19. ……
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We are positive on BABA into FY3Q20E performance. Even though BABA is a big company, it is quite nimble to new trends in the market as the company launched and campaigned many initiatives in the recent past, including Juhuasuan (recommendation engine), “10 billion subsidization” (customer acquisition and retention), KOL live broadcasting (traffic and traffic conversion) as well as SKU feeds, etc.……
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We are positive on BABA’s FY2Q20E performance for both its revenues and margins. BABA has adopted data analytics for its business, which enables it to compete in the market smartly, and in turn, generates more GMV and more revenue without hurting its margins. For example, BABA uses Juhuasuan to attract users at all levels with the most popular SKUs, which is the result of its real time data analytics. ……
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BABA will report FY1Q20 results on August 15th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive into BABA’s FY1Q20 performance. In 2Q19, BABA needed to compete on at least two fronts: with Pinduoduo (PDD, $22.30, Not Rated) in lower tier city commerce and also competing with Meituan (3690.HK, HK$63.65, Not Rated) on food delivery. From our observation, BABA applied smart ways of competing without irrational spending. Based on our data and model, we believe BABA is likel……
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BABA will report FY3Q19 results on January 30th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on BABA into its FY3Q19 performance. Based on our data and model, we believe BABA’s FY3Q19E revenue is likely to be higher than the consensus expectation at RMB119,409M (43.8% Y/Y growth) as well as our model at RMB119,191M. ……
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BABA will report FY2Q19 results on November 2nd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We expect BABA to report FY2Q19 revenue slightly below consensus at RMB 86,666M. At present, there is a slowdown in China’s economy, including consumer areas, which was caused mainly by the government’s deleveraging initiatives across all areas: individuals, corporations, local governments as well as central government.……
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BILI will report 2Q18 results on August 27th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and model, we believe the company’s 2Q18 revenue is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB1,021.6M, and tops the high end of its guidance range of RMB970M – RMB1,000M. ……
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BABA will report FY1Q19 results on August 23rd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. BABA in the past years has given birth to Taobao, Tmall, Ant Finance, and now it is building up Cloud, Cainiao, Youku, ele.me and Hema. BABA is building long lasting assets one on top of another and all of them are centered on commerce and resolve issues in the value chain of commerce. We do believe BABA is likely to be bigger and stronger in the long run. ……
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BABA will report F4Q18 results on Friday, May 4th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. BABA’s revenue continues to experience high growth driven by Tmall and advertising from Taobao along with other offline developments. Hema (BABA’s offline store) is expanding rapidly. ……
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BABA will report FY3Q18 results on Thursday, February 1st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. As the leading vendor in new retail, BABA is at the forefront in the migration of online to offline. The company’s aggressive development in offline retail is positive for the long run in terms of reaching more customers; increasing shopping frequency and adopting new categories.……
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BABA is the leading vendor in new retail and is leading the integration of online and offline. The company’s new retail development – acquiring/investing in leading offline chain department and grocery stores – is more advanced than all of its peers in China, and coverage already includes major metropolitan areas in China. ……
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BABA will report FY2Q18 results on Thursday, November 2nd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data, we believe BABA is likely to report FY2Q18 revenue at least in line, with a high chance of the topline slightly better than consensus at RMB52,182.3M (52.2% Y/Y growth). ……
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BABA will report F1Q17 results on Thursday, August 11 before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. We believe the company is likely to report F1Q results better than the Street consensus based on accelerating Tmall GMV growth, the consolidation of Youku’s advertising revenue and ad revenues from inventories on the Taobao and Tmall platforms. We maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to $97.00.……
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T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – FY4Q16Tmall Drove GMV Growth in FY4Q16; Mobile App Downloads Remain RobustTmall drove GMV growth in FY4Q16 – According to our proprietary data, total GMV for BABA in FY4Q16 is likely to grow 23%Y/Y to reach RMB736B, of which, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 31% Y/Y (decline of 28% Q/Q) to RMB287B in F4Q16, while the GMV of Taobao is likely to grow 18% Y/Y (decline of 20% Q/Q) to reach RMB449B in F4Q16 (Figure 1). Commission revenue is likely to be at RMB5.6……
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BABA will report FY3Q16 results on Thursday, January 28th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. The company has been working on its new strategy to improve the quality and GMV of its Tmall platform, clean up Taobao while increasing its monetization. We believe the strategy can show good results in this quarter. Based on our proprietary data, we believe that BABA is likely to report FY3Q16 results better than consensus expectation at 27% Y/Y growth driven by better monetiz……
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BABA will report FY2Q16 results on Tuesday, October 27th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data, we believe that BABA is likely to report FY2Q16 results better than consensus expectation at 27% Y/Y growth driven by higher commission take rate for Tmall and better advertising revenues from Taobao. For FY3Q16 onward, we believe the company can benefit from Taobao’s recent increase in monetizable search inventories. As the company is working out of ……
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Today, BABA announced that it is entering into an agreement with Suning for the exchange of their stakes after BABA’s investment in Intime Retail last year. We believe that as China is going beyond a pure online commerce and marching into online-and-offline integration, BABA’s investments in leading offline retail vendors have put it in the leading position in a new phase of commerce. While it can be one of the most important developments for BABA’s future, it has no effect on FY1Q16 earnings. B……
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BABA will report its FY4Q15 results on Thursday, May 7th before the market opens. We believe that we most likely won’t see any positive surprises in its FY4Q15 earnings as it is facing pressure from both short term negatives and fundamental changes. While we are echoing other’s bearish view on BABA, we want to analyze the underlying issues as well as lay out BABA’s strategies and changes to cope with these issues. While the near term impact can be short lived, the fundamental changes may take lo……
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January 2015 Data Highlights:•Kugou Technology is the leading player with about 27% market share. Kugou Technology hits the #1 position with its major product, Kugou Music (酷狗音乐). Kuwoo Technology (北京酷我科技有限公司) followed Kugou with a 13% market share, and is well known for its app, Kuwoo Music (酷我音乐). Tencent and Baidu took the positions of #4 and #7, respectively, according to our proprietary data. Baidu’s leading position was mainly attributable to its acquisition of TTPlayer (千千静听). The mobile ……
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•Tmall drove GMV growth in 4Q14 – According to our proprietary data, the GMV for Tmall is likely to grow 71% Y/Y and 78% Q/Q to RMB312B in 4Q14, while the GMV for Taobao is likely to grow 34% Y/Y and 22% Q/Q to RMB465B in 4Q14 (Figure 1). For the month of December 2014, the GMV from Tmall decreased 9% M/M, attributable to decline of sales volume (-22.6% M/M), partially offset by the increase in ASP (16.6% M/M). By categories, the M/M decline in GMV was primarily driven by the decline of categori……
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