- 2018-10-11
T. H. Data Flash – Baozun – August & 3Q18E: Continued Addition of Brand Partners; But No One Can Be Insulated from China’s Macro Slowdown
China’s economy showed slower pace of growth, particularly in the consumer area, which triggered the central government to release a policy that aims to promote internal consumption. On the one hand, BZUN continues to gain new brand partners, and on the other hand, we believe it is starting to feel such slower pace. …… - BABA2018-08-23
BILI: Unique Community and Content May Not Be Able to Grow Freely in China; Revenue in 2Q18 and 3Q18 are Likely to Be At Least In Line
BILI will report 2Q18 results on August 27th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and model, we believe the company’s 2Q18 revenue is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB1,021.6M, and tops the high end of its guidance range of RMB970M – RMB1,000M. …… - BABA2018-08-21
BABA: Building Long Lasting Assets With A Persistent Focus on Commerce; Near Term Core Business Drives Revenue Growth; Maintain Buy
BABA will report FY1Q19 results on August 23rd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. BABA in the past years has given birth to Taobao, Tmall, Ant Finance, and now it is building up Cloud, Cainiao, Youku, ele.me and Hema. BABA is building long lasting assets one on top of another and all of them are centered on commerce and resolve issues in the value chain of commerce. We do believe BABA is likely to be bigger and stronger in the long run. …… - WUBA2018-08-14
WUBA: Investing In New Businesses For New Growth; Macro Environment Is Not Positive; Maintain BUY
WUBA will report 2Q18 results on August 16th before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are cautious on WUBA’s 2H 2018 as it is more a macro play. On the macro front, the deleveraging movement is impacting housing and job areas. On housing front, the government has clearly indicated its policy, which is controlling price and transaction volume. On the job front, as major shareholders for many enterprises are facing pressure to repay debts, this puts them in contraction mode inst…… - 2018-08-10
T. H. Data Flash – Baozun (BZUN) – 2Q18: Continuing to Benefit From Tmall’s Brand Expansion; Expect Healthy 2Q18 Topline Growth
While major ecommerce vendors such as BABA (BABA, $177.19, Buy) and JD (JD, $36.02, Buy) are, one way or another, under pressure from Pinduoduo (PDD, $20.00, Not Rated), BZUN is still taking advantage of Tmall’s past expansion into top international brands. As one of the top tier ecommerce operators on Tmall’s platform, BZUN continues to add new brands, new products as well as services to its clients. …… - WB2018-08-02
NTES: New Games Performing Well and Ecommerce Enjoying High Season; Expect Better 2Q18 Revenue
NTES will report 2Q18 results on August 8th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, NTES’s 2Q18 revenue is likely to be better than consensus expectation at RMB16,479M. During 2Q18, NTES released 7 new games and participated in the “6.18” sales promotions.…… - JD2018-07-09
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. (JD) – 2Q18E: Ecommerce in China is Reaching Its Maturity and Facing the Pressure of Structural Changes; JD is Seeking New Growth in Logistics and is Still Ramping; Lower PT
In the traditional ecommerce world, JD is facing a couple of issues: 1) China ecommerce is reaching its maturity as new user growth has slowed down and heading towards flattish growth on a year to year basis. The newly merged vendor, Pinduoduo, has attracted non-traditional ecommerce users (Figure 1).…… - CMCM2018-05-18
CMCM: Continuing Its Business Adjustment in 1Q18
CMCM will report 1Q18 results on May 21st before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, we believe CMCM is likely to deliver 1Q18 top line at around RMB1,139M, lower than consensus at RMB1,142.87M and toward the lower end of its guidance range of RMB1,100M – RMB1,140M, as the main revenue contributor Utility products continued its declining trend and Live.me was also experiencing some stagnation. …… - NTES2018-05-09
NTES: Solid Performance of New Games, Older Games Recovering While Ecommerce Is Still Accelerating; Expect In-Line Revenue & Possible Better Margins
NTES will report 1Q18 results on May 16th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, NTES’s 1Q18 revenue is likely to be in line with consensus expectation at RMB13,839M.…… - JD2018-05-04
JD: Maintaining Growth While Increasing Investment in Logistics in 1Q18; Maintain BUY
JD will report 1Q18 results on May 8th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. For 1Q18, based on our proprietary data, we believe JD’s topline growth at about 31% Y/Y is likely to be in line with consensus expectation as well as our estimates. …… - BABA2018-04-30
T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group (BABA) – March & FY4Q18: High Growth Driven by Core Commerce Business; Margin Pressure Due To Offline Development; Expect F4Q18 Top Line to be Better than Consensus; Maintain Buy
BABA will report F4Q18 results on Friday, May 4th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. BABA’s revenue continues to experience high growth driven by Tmall and advertising from Taobao along with other offline developments. Hema (BABA’s offline store) is expanding rapidly. …… - JD2018-02-28
JD: Expect Better 4Q17 Revenue Results; Apparel Is Still Weak; Spending In Promotions and Offline Businesses Were Aggressive; Maintain BUY
JD will report 4Q17 results on Friday, March 2nd before the market opens with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our proprietary data and calculations, we believe JD’s net revenue is likely to grow 39.8% Y/Y to reach RMB 111.1B in 4Q17, higher than consensus topline at RMB 108.5B (35.3% Y/Y growth) and tops its top-line guidance of RMB 107B - 110B or 35% - 39% Y/Y growth.…… - NTES2018-02-06
NTES: While Promotions Lead to Better e-Commerce and Higher Popularity of Two New Games in 4Q17, Margin Is Likely To Be Under Pressure; Maintain BUY As NTES Has Released More Games In 1Q18
NTES will report 4Q17 results on Wednesday, February 7th after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. We are cautious ahead of earnings, as the slowdown in game revenue is likely to be negative to the company’s topline growth. Based on our data and assumptions, the company’s revenue in 4Q17 is likely to be RMB13,560M, below consensus at RMB13,788M. …… - BABA2018-01-29
BABA: Expect Strong FY3Q18 Results Driven By Core Commerce in China; Leading in New Retail; Maintain Buy
BABA will report FY3Q18 results on Thursday, February 1st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. As the leading vendor in new retail, BABA is at the forefront in the migration of online to offline. The company’s aggressive development in offline retail is positive for the long run in terms of reaching more customers; increasing shopping frequency and adopting new categories.…… - VIPS2018-01-16
T. H. Data Flash - Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) – December & Preliminary 4Q17: Expect Faster Growth in 2018 Fueled By Traffic from JD and Tencent and Slightly Better 4Q17
While VIPS’s 4Q17 performance may be inline, we believe its 2018 can enjoy faster growth due to the traffic help from JD (JD, $46.40, Buy) and Tencent (700.HK, HK$444.20, Not Rated). Based on our data, we believe VIPS’ revenue in 4Q17 is likely to be around RMB23,484.3M (23.7% Y/Y growth), slightly better than consensus at RMB23,311.0M (22.8% Y/Y growth) driven by higher price of SKUs sold. …… - JD2018-01-04
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. (JD) – November & Preliminary 4Q17: Embracing New Retail Trend and Exploring Ways to Improve Margins; Maintain BUY
Offline presence or new retail is the trend for China e-commerce vendors, and JD along with BABA is in the leading positions. JD has several ongoing initiatives, which include supply chain and logistic services, experience stores, unmanned convenience stores, and pharmaceutical and fresh food stores. …… - BABA2018-01-03
T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group (BABA) – Preliminary FY3Q18: Aggressive Development in Offline Retail is Positive in the Long Run but Margins May Suffer For A While; Maintain Buy
BABA is the leading vendor in new retail and is leading the integration of online and offline. The company’s new retail development – acquiring/investing in leading offline chain department and grocery stores – is more advanced than all of its peers in China, and coverage already includes major metropolitan areas in China. …… - NTES2017-11-10
NTES: Stronger eCommerce in 3Q17 to Drive Topline; New Games Launched in Early November Bring Popularity; LT Margins May be Impacted by Higher Investment in E-Commerce; Maintain BUY
NTES will report 3Q17 results on Wednesday, November 15th after the close of the market followed by an 8pm EST conference call. Based on our data for 3Q17, we believe NTES’s 3Q revenue is likely to be better than consensus at $1,890.6M (RMB12,550M) driven by better ecommerce while the game business was a bit soft. …… - WUBA2017-11-09
WUBA: 3Q17 Data Suggest Performance Likely to Beat Consensus; Downward Trend in Housing Sector is Worrisome; Maintain BUY
WUBA will report 3Q17 results on Monday, November 13, 2017 before the market opens with an 8am ET conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we believe WUBA’s 3Q17 revenue is likely to outperform consensus at $387.7M (RMB2,569.6M) and our model at $394.2M driven by the growth in total paying merchants. In China’s housing market, the data showed some slowdown in transactions, which we believe can be a negative growth factor for the company’s housing business. However, as WUBA is innovat…… - JD2017-11-06
JD: Expect In Line 3Q17 Results, No Upside Surprises from GMV Growth; Maintain BUY
JD will report 3Q17 results on Monday, November 13th before the market opens with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data, JD’s 3Q net revenue is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB83.6B and higher than the mid-point of 3Q17 topline guidance of RMB81.8B – RMB84.2B (36% - 40% Y/Y growth). ……
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