- 2020-08-21
BILI: Adding Solid Game Ecosystem To Its Platform While Solidifying UGC Business; Expect Better 2Q20 Results
BILI will report 2Q20 results on August 26th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We are positive into BILI’s 2Q20 performance as well as its 3Q20 outlook. Based on our data and model, we believe BILI’s revenue in 2Q20 is likely to outperform consensus at RMB2,539M (65.1% Y/Y growth) and the high-end of its guidance range of RMB2,500M – RMB2,550M, and our model. From our 2Q20 and July data, we believe BILI is building a game ecosystem by integrating new game launches wi…… - 2020-08-20
BZUN: Higher SSS Sales And Additional Clients Drive Positive 2Q20E Performance
BZUN will report 2Q20 results on August 21st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on BZUN’s 2Q20 performance. The COVID-19 pandemic limited offline activities and pushed brands to put more efforts on their online stores. In 2Q20, BZUN added more brands including both domestic and international brands. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN’s net revenue in 2Q20E is likely to be better than consensus at RMB2,077.0M. …… - 2020-08-18
PDD: Expect Strong 2Q Revenue Performance; Higher S&M Spending in 2Q20
PDD will report 2Q20 results on August 21st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on PDD’s performance in 2Q20. In addition to the company’s significant marketing spending and subsidization, the pent-up demand from consumers and merchants participation of “6.18” deals also elevated the sales. On top of that, due to the social functions of its APP, the user engagement or shopping frequency showed continuing upward trends. Per user GMV on PDD is also likely to …… - VIPS2020-08-18
VIPS: Pandemic Pushing Non-Essential Goods From Offline To Online; Post Pandemic Cautiousness Sustaining Such Move; Expect VIPS To Deliver Better 2Q20 Results
VIPS will report 2Q20 results on August 19th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 2Q20 revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB23,789M (4.6% Y/Y growth) and high end of its guidance (RMB22.7B – RMB23.8B). For 3Q20, we expect VIPS to continue to benefit from high demand of e-commerce as offline traffic is significantly reduced even after the pandemic due to cautiousness, which not only drives users to shop …… - BIDU2020-08-06
BIDU: Ad Environment Is Still Challenging For The Near-Term; 2020 Is An Investment Year For BIDU
BIDU will report 2Q20results on August 13th after the markets close followed by a 9:15pm EST conference call. We are cautious on China’sadvertising market in the near term. We believe the ad environment in2020 may be challenging for the company. In 2Q20, some of the traditionale-commerce advertising shifted away from traditional platforms to livestreaming to market their products. In 3Q20, the seasonal popular sectors oftravel, education and business services did not pick up normal growth. These…… - 2020-07-10
T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – May & FY1Q21E: Strong E-Commerce In 2Q20 Fueled By Discounts, Live Streaming And Hungry Consumers; But What’s More Important Is The High Level Issues - What Is Going On In The Market?
We are positive on BABA’s performance into FY1Q21. Based on our data and model, BABA’s FY1Q21E revenue is likely to be above consensus at RMB147.9B (28.7% Y/Y growth) and our estimate. The strong performance is driven by: 1) Live streaming; 2) Better same store sales on discounts; and 3) For “6.18” sales, the pre-sales started in late May 2020. All of the above plus the pent-up demand from consumers made 2Q20 very special. …… - JD2020-07-09
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – May & 2Q20E: Satisfying Pent-Up Demand In 2Q20 With Merchant Discounts, Platform Subsidizations And Live Streaming
We are positive on JD’s 2Q20 performance. China’s e-commerce in 2Q20 is an especially positive quarter as a result of: 1) Deep-discounts from merchants as well as subsidizations from e-commerce platforms was an outlet for consumers’ pent-up demands; 2) Live streaming increased the reach out rate and conversion rate. For live streaming, JD not only formed a partnership with Kwai (one of the two major short video platforms in China), but also set up its own live streaming function as well as teame…… - JD2020-07-09
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – May & 2Q20E: Satisfying Pent-Up Demand In 2Q20 With Merchant Discounts, Platform Subsidizations And Live Streaming
We are positive on JD’s 2Q20 performance. China’s e-commerce in 2Q20 is an especially positive quarter as a result of: 1) Deep-discounts from merchants as well as subsidizations from e-commerce platforms was an outlet for consumers’ pent-up demands; 2) Live streaming increased the reach out rate and conversion rate. For live streaming, JD not only formed a partnership with Kwai (one of the two major short video platforms in China), but also set up its own live streaming function as well as teame…… - 2020-05-20
PDD: Expect PDD Volume Growth Higher Than Expectation And Reasonable S&M In 1Q20
PDD will report 1Q20 results on May 22nd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, PDD’s total revenue in 1Q20E is likely to be above consensus at RMB4,974M (9.4% Y/Y growth) with a take rate assumption of 2.80%, vs. 2.91% in 4Q19 and 3.01% in 3Q19. We estimate that sales and marketing expense may be in the range of RMB5.0B - RMB 5.2B, as branding and performance-based advertisement spending declined Q/Q but subsidizations are still at a high level.…… - BABA2020-05-11
BABA: Online Commerce Is Leading Economic Recovery Post COVID-19; BABA’s Platform Is Enabling More Business Activities Online
As we are entering into 2Q20, the business activities in China are recovering, and BABA is taking the lead. Our data showed that many verticals’ online sales gained strong Y/Y growth in April after weakness in February and March. Of the twelve level-one verticals, about ten achieved 50% Y/Y – 153% Y/Y growth in April; for example, computer GMV grew 57% Y/Y and liquor at 58% Y/Y (Figure 5). For FY4Q20, we expect mixed results for BABA due to the negative impact from COVID-19. …… - JD2020-05-08
JD: 1Q20 Benefiting From JD’s Self-Operated Logistics and 1P E-Commerce; 2Q20 Benefiting From The Recovery In Home Appliance Consumption
JD will report 1Q20 results on May 15th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST call. We are positive on JD’s 1Q20 performance as well as its 2Q20 outlook. During the outbreak in 1Q20, JD was in high demand as evidenced by the hike of the company’s search queries (Figure 5). The high demands were caused by the outbreak, and JD was able to fill them due to its ability to supply and deliver products to consumers with its self-operated logistics and 1P e-commerce. In contrast to the Y/Y declines …… - 2020-02-10
BABA: Nimble To The Market Driving Strong FY3Q20; While Coronavirus Outbreak Is Likely to Put Pressure On Its Growth In The Very Near Term, The Longer Term Outlook Is Positive; Maintain BUY
Theoretically, BABA is supposed to benefit from the recent coronavirus outbreak as many offline stores are delaying their openings; however, the delivery forces are not yet running in full gear due to the nationwide caution on the virus. Therefore, FY4Q20 is likely to be negatively impacted. Once people resume their work, we believe BABA is likely to become one of the preferred platforms for consumers to shop without leaving their homes. BABA will report FY3Q20 results on February 13th before th…… - BABA2020-01-07
T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – November 2019 & FY3Q20E: Nimble To The Market With New Initiatives; Traffic and Traffic Conversions Are Positive; Raise Price Target
We are positive on BABA into FY3Q20E performance. Even though BABA is a big company, it is quite nimble to new trends in the market as the company launched and campaigned many initiatives in the recent past, including Juhuasuan (recommendation engine), “10 billion subsidization” (customer acquisition and retention), KOL live broadcasting (traffic and traffic conversion) as well as SKU feeds, etc.…… - 2019-11-12
PDD: Three-Step Customer Acquisition To Target High Spenders; Positive for GMV And Margin; Expect 3Q19 Performance To Be Better Than Consensus
PDD will report 3Q19 results on November 20th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, in 3Q19E, PDD’s revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at RMB7,414M (120% Y/Y growth) driven by its continuing efforts to tap into higher end customers while maintaining its existing lower tier city users. For the key factor sales & marketing expense, we estimate that in 3Q19 it is likely to be between RMB6.1B and RMB6.3B, and we believe the new loss ma…… - JD2019-11-11
JD: 2H19 Investing For User Growth In Lower Tier Cities; New Initiatives Driving Better Topline Growth In 3Q19
JD will report 3Q19 results on November 15th before the markets open with a 7am EST call. We are positive on JD’s 3Q19 performance. Based on our data and calculations, JD’s net revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB128.6B (22.7% Y/Y growth) as well as our estimate at RMB127.8B. In the 1H2019, the company accomplished 2.5% non-GAAP net margin, and it plans to invest more resources back into new business initiatives such as a new version of Pingou on WeChat and new product Jingxi low…… - 2019-10-25
BABA: Operational Efficiency Driving Better Earnings In FY2Q20; Maintain Buy
BABA will report F2Q20 results on November 1st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. As emphasizing on operational efficiency is one of the main focuses within BABA Group, we believe the bigger positive of its FY2Q20 earning results is likely to be better than expected improvement in BABA’s non-GAAP operating margin and net margin as a result of: 1) lower spending from Youku; 2) less loss from the Cloud business; and 3) less cash subsidies in ele.me compared with last year. …… - BABA2019-10-09
T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group – August 2019 & FY2Q20E: BABA Adopting Data Analytics To Compete Smartly; Positive On FY2Q20E Performance; Maintain Buy
We are positive on BABA’s FY2Q20E performance for both its revenues and margins. BABA has adopted data analytics for its business, which enables it to compete in the market smartly, and in turn, generates more GMV and more revenue without hurting its margins. For example, BABA uses Juhuasuan to attract users at all levels with the most popular SKUs, which is the result of its real time data analytics. …… - 2019-10-08
T. H. Data Flash - Pinduoduo Inc. – August & 3Q19E: Expect 3Q19 Revenue To Be Better Than Consensus
We are positive on PDD’s 3Q19E performance. We believe the company is still in the stage of building up its e-commerce ecosystem, which requires significant sustainable traffic to operate. Therefore, at the current stage, the key of the business is to buy as much traffic as it can and then sell the traffic to merchants by matching the SKUs with users. That’s why sales and marketing is one of the important factors for PDD as it directly results in revenues.…… - JD2019-10-03
T. H. Data Flash – JD.com, Inc. – August & 3Q19E: Investment In New Initiatives Led To Better Performance In 3Q19
We are positive on JD’s 3Q19 performance. Based on our data and calculations, we believe JD’s net revenue is likely to reach RMB129.2B in 3Q19E, up 23.3% Y/Y vs. 22.9% in 2Q19, better than consensus at RMB127.9B (22.1% Y/Y growth). In the 1H2019, the company accomplished 2.5% non-GAAP net margin, and it plans to invest more back into new business initiatives such as a new version of Pingou on WeChat, lower tier city expansion and category expansion. The current expectation for JD’s 2H2019 net in…… - 2019-08-16
PDD: Increasing The ROI On Sales & Marketing Spending; Expect Net Loss Margin To Narrow in 2Q19
PDD will report 2Q19 financial results on August 21st before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. As China is geographically big with a diverse population, PDD is developing into a less developed market – populations in lower tier cities with lower income or less sophisticated with internet commerce. This group of the population was ignored in the past. ……
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