- 2020-12-17
3690.HK: Rapidly Rolling Out Meituan Selected In More Places; Food Delivery GTV Likely To Grow Y/Y In October And November
Meituan announced in early September that it will expand its community group purchase service, Meituan Selected (美团优选), to 1,000 Chinese cities and counties by the end of 2020. Based on our data, in early December, Meituan Selected is available in 277 cities vs. 186 on November 16th. For food delivery, Meituan market share decreased slightly in October and November 2020 compared with 3Q20, as Ele.me organized successful “11.11” promotional events; however, Meituan’s market share is still close t…… - 2020-11-25
3690.HK: Accelerating Growth In Supply And Demand for Online Deliveries Leads To Better 3Q20 Results
Meituan will report 3Q20 results on November 30th before the markets open with a 6am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance in 3Q20. The demand for food delivery services accelerated in 3Q20 as business activities and life returned to normal. The supply side of food delivery has been growing significantly as restaurant re-openings and their online migration continues their upward trend nationwide. The number of food delivery orders and restaurants joining online services w…… - 2020-11-19
BZUN / 9991.HK: Expect Better 3Q20 Revenue Due To Product Mix Optimization; 4Q20 Outlook Is Strong On Robust Sales
BZUN will report 3Q20 results on November 23rd before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on BZUN’s 3Q20 and expect stronger 4Q20 performance. BZUN provided weaker than expected 3Q20 guidance at 16% - 20% Y/Y growth, as the third quarter experienced weaker than normal seasonality. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN performed better in 3Q20 than its guidance, and net revenue is likely to be above the high end of the company’s guidance at RMB1,800M and the St…… - NTES2020-11-18
NTES / 9999.HK: Aggressive Promotion of New Games And Online Education Driving Topline Growth In 3Q20
NTES will report 3Q20 results on November 19th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. Normally, 3Q is a strong quarter for PC games, however, 3Q20 is a shorter quarter as the college entrance exam was pushed to July from June. Additionally, after being quarantined at home in 1Q20 and making up schoolwork in 2Q20, families and students finally have a chance to do outdoor activities. However, NTES launched a few new games in 3Q20, which included Fantasy Westward Journey 3D, Dawn o…… - 2020-11-10
PDD: Strong User Growth Momentum And High Transaction Volume In 3Q20
PDD will report 3Q20 results on November 12th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Even though the third quarter of 2020 is a weaker quarter for e-commerce after the hike in 2Q20, with its ongoing efforts, PDD traffic as well as its user engagements recovered. Based on our data and our model, we believe PDD’s total revenue in 3Q20E is likely to be in line with consensus at RMB12,338M (64.2% Y/Y growth). However, based on our data, we believe PDD’s sales & marketing expe…… - VIPS2020-11-09
VIPS: Improving Demand for Apparel Drive Better 3Q20 Performance
VIPS will report 3Q20 results on November 13th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive into Vipshop’s 3Q20 earnings. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, it significantly improved in 3Q20. VIPS has been increasing its efforts to promote KuaiQiang (快抢) as one of its growing channels. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 3Q20 revenue is likely to be at least in line but highly likely to be bette…… - 2020-11-02
BABA: New Initiatives To Enable A Strong FY3Q21; FY2Q21 Continued Its Momentum From FY1Q21
BABA will report FY2Q21 results on November 5th before the market opens with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Based on our data and model, FY2Q21E revenue is likely to be at least in line with consensus at RMB155.9B (31.0% Y/Y growth). China’s e-commerce industry in 3Q20 is experiencing weaker seasonality than before; however, we are expecting a strong 4Q20. …… - VIPS2020-10-09
T.H. Data Flash – Vipshop – August & 3Q20E: Growth In Apparel And Fashion Picking Up In July And August; Positive For 3Q20 Performance
We are positive into Vipshop’s potential performance in 3Q20E. While fashion category did not enjoy high growth during China’s e-commerce hike in 2Q20, the growth picked up in both July and August 2020 with 18.5% Y/Y and 15.2% Y/Y growth, respectively, which significantly improved from 2.3% Y/Y decline in 2Q20. The newer channels, Fengqiang (疯抢) and KuaiQiang (快抢), are growing channels, and VIPS has been increasing its efforts in these channels. …… - JD2020-10-08
T.H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – August & 3Q20E: New Initiatives and Better Performance In 3Q20; Expect A Strong 4Q20 On Blockbuster Sales
We are positive on JD’s 3Q20 performance. Post the hike in 2Q20, China e-commerce vendors including JD in 3Q20 experienced a lower growth season than its normal seasonality with most categories showing slower growth, except categories like apparel, shoes & bags and accessories. JD did a big promotional event in September together with Kuaishuo (a short video vendor like TikTok) with huge subsidizations, which was an additional positive compared with last year. …… - 2020-08-21
BILI: Adding Solid Game Ecosystem To Its Platform While Solidifying UGC Business; Expect Better 2Q20 Results
BILI will report 2Q20 results on August 26th after the markets close followed by a 9pm EST conference call. We are positive into BILI’s 2Q20 performance as well as its 3Q20 outlook. Based on our data and model, we believe BILI’s revenue in 2Q20 is likely to outperform consensus at RMB2,539M (65.1% Y/Y growth) and the high-end of its guidance range of RMB2,500M – RMB2,550M, and our model. From our 2Q20 and July data, we believe BILI is building a game ecosystem by integrating new game launches wi…… - 2020-08-20
BZUN: Higher SSS Sales And Additional Clients Drive Positive 2Q20E Performance
BZUN will report 2Q20 results on August 21st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on BZUN’s 2Q20 performance. The COVID-19 pandemic limited offline activities and pushed brands to put more efforts on their online stores. In 2Q20, BZUN added more brands including both domestic and international brands. Based on our data and model, we believe BZUN’s net revenue in 2Q20E is likely to be better than consensus at RMB2,077.0M. …… - 2020-08-18
PDD: Expect Strong 2Q Revenue Performance; Higher S&M Spending in 2Q20
PDD will report 2Q20 results on August 21st before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are positive on PDD’s performance in 2Q20. In addition to the company’s significant marketing spending and subsidization, the pent-up demand from consumers and merchants participation of “6.18” deals also elevated the sales. On top of that, due to the social functions of its APP, the user engagement or shopping frequency showed continuing upward trends. Per user GMV on PDD is also likely to …… - VIPS2020-08-18
VIPS: Pandemic Pushing Non-Essential Goods From Offline To Online; Post Pandemic Cautiousness Sustaining Such Move; Expect VIPS To Deliver Better 2Q20 Results
VIPS will report 2Q20 results on August 19th before the markets open with a conference call at 7:30am EST. Based on our data and calculations, we believe VIPS’s 2Q20 revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB23,789M (4.6% Y/Y growth) and high end of its guidance (RMB22.7B – RMB23.8B). For 3Q20, we expect VIPS to continue to benefit from high demand of e-commerce as offline traffic is significantly reduced even after the pandemic due to cautiousness, which not only drives users to shop …… - BIDU2020-08-06
BIDU: Ad Environment Is Still Challenging For The Near-Term; 2020 Is An Investment Year For BIDU
BIDU will report 2Q20results on August 13th after the markets close followed by a 9:15pm EST conference call. We are cautious on China’sadvertising market in the near term. We believe the ad environment in2020 may be challenging for the company. In 2Q20, some of the traditionale-commerce advertising shifted away from traditional platforms to livestreaming to market their products. In 3Q20, the seasonal popular sectors oftravel, education and business services did not pick up normal growth. These…… - 2020-07-10
T. H. Data Flash – Alibaba Group – May & FY1Q21E: Strong E-Commerce In 2Q20 Fueled By Discounts, Live Streaming And Hungry Consumers; But What’s More Important Is The High Level Issues - What Is Going On In The Market?
We are positive on BABA’s performance into FY1Q21. Based on our data and model, BABA’s FY1Q21E revenue is likely to be above consensus at RMB147.9B (28.7% Y/Y growth) and our estimate. The strong performance is driven by: 1) Live streaming; 2) Better same store sales on discounts; and 3) For “6.18” sales, the pre-sales started in late May 2020. All of the above plus the pent-up demand from consumers made 2Q20 very special. …… - JD2020-07-09
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – May & 2Q20E: Satisfying Pent-Up Demand In 2Q20 With Merchant Discounts, Platform Subsidizations And Live Streaming
We are positive on JD’s 2Q20 performance. China’s e-commerce in 2Q20 is an especially positive quarter as a result of: 1) Deep-discounts from merchants as well as subsidizations from e-commerce platforms was an outlet for consumers’ pent-up demands; 2) Live streaming increased the reach out rate and conversion rate. For live streaming, JD not only formed a partnership with Kwai (one of the two major short video platforms in China), but also set up its own live streaming function as well as teame…… - JD2020-07-09
T. H. Data Flash - JD.com, Inc. – May & 2Q20E: Satisfying Pent-Up Demand In 2Q20 With Merchant Discounts, Platform Subsidizations And Live Streaming
We are positive on JD’s 2Q20 performance. China’s e-commerce in 2Q20 is an especially positive quarter as a result of: 1) Deep-discounts from merchants as well as subsidizations from e-commerce platforms was an outlet for consumers’ pent-up demands; 2) Live streaming increased the reach out rate and conversion rate. For live streaming, JD not only formed a partnership with Kwai (one of the two major short video platforms in China), but also set up its own live streaming function as well as teame…… - 2020-05-20
PDD: Expect PDD Volume Growth Higher Than Expectation And Reasonable S&M In 1Q20
PDD will report 1Q20 results on May 22nd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Based on our data and model, PDD’s total revenue in 1Q20E is likely to be above consensus at RMB4,974M (9.4% Y/Y growth) with a take rate assumption of 2.80%, vs. 2.91% in 4Q19 and 3.01% in 3Q19. We estimate that sales and marketing expense may be in the range of RMB5.0B - RMB 5.2B, as branding and performance-based advertisement spending declined Q/Q but subsidizations are still at a high level.…… - BABA2020-05-11
BABA: Online Commerce Is Leading Economic Recovery Post COVID-19; BABA’s Platform Is Enabling More Business Activities Online
As we are entering into 2Q20, the business activities in China are recovering, and BABA is taking the lead. Our data showed that many verticals’ online sales gained strong Y/Y growth in April after weakness in February and March. Of the twelve level-one verticals, about ten achieved 50% Y/Y – 153% Y/Y growth in April; for example, computer GMV grew 57% Y/Y and liquor at 58% Y/Y (Figure 5). For FY4Q20, we expect mixed results for BABA due to the negative impact from COVID-19. …… - JD2020-05-08
JD: 1Q20 Benefiting From JD’s Self-Operated Logistics and 1P E-Commerce; 2Q20 Benefiting From The Recovery In Home Appliance Consumption
JD will report 1Q20 results on May 15th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST call. We are positive on JD’s 1Q20 performance as well as its 2Q20 outlook. During the outbreak in 1Q20, JD was in high demand as evidenced by the hike of the company’s search queries (Figure 5). The high demands were caused by the outbreak, and JD was able to fill them due to its ability to supply and deliver products to consumers with its self-operated logistics and 1P e-commerce. In contrast to the Y/Y declines ……
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